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Digsby

Asking Prices Vs Sold Prices

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It's the perennial question we keep asking ourselves and each other. Average asking prices seem way, way above average sold prices, to the point where HPI would be through the roof if those asking prices were being consistently met.

So either a decent proportion of properties for sale are not actually being sold (those with the eye watering asking prices - see my 1 in 3 do not sell thread), or the prices that these properties are actually selling for are a long way off their asking prices.

That, as the prince of Denmark would say, is the question - how much lower than the asking price are specific properties actually selling for, and what is the average of that difference?

As I intimated in the recent thread on the latest RM asking price report, I've found a way of getting the answer, and the answer is a surprise. Pluck a number out of the air before you read on, and see how close you are.

A bit of background info on where it comes from. If you visit Zoopla's Sold Prices and enter a postcode, and then on the next page click "View all sold house prices in..." near the top, you get a list of the sold prices for the area. Some of the entries have an "H" icon under them and if you click that, it will give you an archived listing with the price on it. I'd always assumed it was the sold price, but it's the asking price.

By writing a bit of software that does that automatically, collecting the sold prices and the asking prices as it goes, I can create some statistics that answer the question for those sold prices where the asking price is known and published by Zoopla.

I imagine it is the last asking price before being removed rather than the initial. I've deliberately excluded those where the date of the archived page is over a certain age (at the moment it's 2 years but I think 3 months is probably better - but that means a smaller sample size).

Here are the results for the five months to March for BA11:

Mar 2015: -1.98% (6 Sales)Feb 2015: -3.39% (22 Sales)Jan 2015: -2.44% (23 Sales)Dec 2014: -3.14% (25 Sales)Nov 2014: -3.70% (24 Sales)

I don't know about you, but I was expecting the result to be 10-20%. Every area is obviously going to differ to some degree, but it would appear that in this postal area at least, it's *not* the case that sellers are accepting offers way below asking price.

Give me a postal area and I'll run the report for you on that area.

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Full postcodes have too little sales to get any stats, but expanding them a little:

Results for PO21 5==================Mar 2015: -4.79% (2 Sales)Feb 2015: -4.69% (8 Sales)Jan 2015: -3.73% (4 Sales)Dec 2014: 1.83% (4 Sales)Nov 2014: 2.48% (10 Sales)Oct 2014: -0.51% (5 Sales)Sep 2014: -0.62% (11 Sales)Aug 2014: -2.66% (13 Sales)Jul 2014: -4.35% (12 Sales)Jun 2014: -5.92% (5 Sales)May 2014: -1.44% (9 Sales)Apr 2014: -4.81% (9 Sales)Mar 2014: -2.56% (8 Sales)
Results for N4 3================Feb 2015: -0.14% (3 Sales)Jan 2015: -1.67% (1 Sales)Dec 2014: -1.84% (4 Sales)Nov 2014: 1.73% (3 Sales)Oct 2014: 11.84% (1 Sales)Sep 2014: -2.35% (5 Sales)Aug 2014: 0.94% (6 Sales)Jul 2014: 4.37% (6 Sales)Jun 2014: 6.17% (2 Sales)May 2014: 1.93% (2 Sales)Apr 2014: -0.92% (5 Sales)Mar 2014: 2.25% (3 Sales)Feb 2014: 2.67% (7 Sales)Jan 2014: 1.81% (2 Sales)

I can do just PO21 and N4 if you want, might be better as there's few sales even at the above levels.

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The results so far are very interesting but seem quite different to the current differences published on the earlier HPC thread (or at least compared to the average difference using Land Registry figures). The ONS figures are closer even though both the Land Registry and the ONS are official government organisations giving figures miles apart.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/204764-rightmove-asking-price-may-2015-01/page-2

From the charts in the above link:

Average Rightmove asking price compared to average ONS sale price = about 6%.

Average Rightmove asking price compared to average LandRegistry sale price = about 38%.

It seems to suggest that Land Registry figures are incorrect. So far out it seems to damage the credibility of the Land Registry and its status as an official outlet for sale prices.

Unless there are some districts where the average asking price is so different to the average sale price (maybe of the order of 80% or so - or maybe Rightmove figures are being massively bumped up through lots of crazy asking prices then removed without selling the property but that doesn't explain how close the ONS figures are to the Right move figures) that they bring the average back into line with the 38% figure.

Something of a conundrum seeing as the Land Registry figures are supposed to be the actual sale figures (the ONS figures are probably claimed to be actual sale figures as well even though the averages are miles different to the Land Registry averages).

The Rightmove data v the government's official data sources gets ever more crazy and contradictory as time has gone on

Edited by billybong

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Could I humbly request CH4 7 (or if there aren't enough results there, then CH4 generally)?

I've been following pretty much everything in CH4 7 for a while now and there have been a lot of £10K reductions recently, although these won't be in the sold figures just yet, so not sure how things were going before then.

A lot of stuff seems to have been up with no asking price reductions for over a year now.

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I've finished my lunch break today, but I'll come back and fulfil all requests this evening, and be interested to read and discuss any thoughts on what all this means!

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I'd very much appreciate it if you could do SK13... It's an area with a VERY slow/stagnant market but still plenty of deluded asking prices all the same.

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One thing to note is that repossessions that are sold by the banks do not appear in the land registry - presumably so that they don't damage the sale prices of houses not repossesed, (no free market here).

Mine was a repo from a BTL landlord who had overgeared himself to buy 50+ properties. He lost the lot and the bank repo'd them all. So that is 50 properties that don't appear in the official figures for my area just from one event. Looking at the land registry one would assume I'd paid £230k in 2008 not £193k in 2011. a drop of 16% in price. The asking price in 2011 was £210k so about -8%. Next door, same build, sold a week later for £208k - not a repo. It recently resold for £240k which was quite a surprise as it was more than the asking price by a few k. I fear that Cameron is getting 'pumped up' on the back of his pumping up the housing bubble.

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Could you do:

M19 (burnage, south manchester - just outside of didsbury)

M20 (covers didsbury, bubble territory)

SK4

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Full postcodes have too little sales to get any stats, but expanding them a little:

Results for PO21 5==================Mar 2015: -4.79% (2 Sales)Feb 2015: -4.69% (8 Sales)Jan 2015: -3.73% (4 Sales)Dec 2014: 1.83% (4 Sales)Nov 2014: 2.48% (10 Sales)Oct 2014: -0.51% (5 Sales)Sep 2014: -0.62% (11 Sales)Aug 2014: -2.66% (13 Sales)Jul 2014: -4.35% (12 Sales)Jun 2014: -5.92% (5 Sales)May 2014: -1.44% (9 Sales)Apr 2014: -4.81% (9 Sales)Mar 2014: -2.56% (8 Sales)
Results for N4 3================Feb 2015: -0.14% (3 Sales)Jan 2015: -1.67% (1 Sales)Dec 2014: -1.84% (4 Sales)Nov 2014: 1.73% (3 Sales)Oct 2014: 11.84% (1 Sales)Sep 2014: -2.35% (5 Sales)Aug 2014: 0.94% (6 Sales)Jul 2014: 4.37% (6 Sales)Jun 2014: 6.17% (2 Sales)May 2014: 1.93% (2 Sales)Apr 2014: -0.92% (5 Sales)Mar 2014: 2.25% (3 Sales)Feb 2014: 2.67% (7 Sales)Jan 2014: 1.81% (2 Sales)

I can do just PO21 and N4 if you want, might be better as there's few sales even at the above levels.

That brilliant !, As I suspected prices are softening. Really helpfull. I would love to see just po21.

Thanks again

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Ooh! I thought that the H was for *previous* listings, not the very last sold. Excellent! Um, report on N4 3PT?

ta....

Digsby - you hero! Great thanks for that, and aye yes, N4 good also to see

Are you sure you don't want N19 4? I checked where N4 3TF is on http://www.doogal.co.uk/UKPostcodes.php?Search=N4%203and it's not actually with the rest of the N4 3 postcode.

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It just shows there is no shortage of morons ready to spend as much borrowed money as they can get their hands on, and no shortage of greedy sellers looking to keep prices ever-rising. I've lost hope really. I used to check Rightmove every day or two but I barely look at it now. When I do look at it and see asking prices pumped up even more, with absolutely no good reason for it, it just makes me feel ill.

The kite-flyers are just providing price anchoring for the ones that do sell. They're all on another planet.

Anchoring affects everyone, even people who are highly knowledgeable in a field. Northcraft and Neale conducted a study to measure the difference in the estimated value of a house between students and real-estate agents. In this experiment, both groups were shown a house and then given different listing prices. After making their offer, each group was then asked to discuss what factors influenced their decisions. In the follow-up interviews, the real-estate agents denied being influenced by the initial price, but the results showed that both groups were equally influenced by that anchor.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anchoring

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It's the perennial question we keep asking ourselves and each other. Average asking prices seem way, way above average sold prices, to the point where HPI would be through the roof if those asking prices were being consistently met.

So either a decent proportion of properties for sale are not actually being sold (those with the eye watering asking prices - see my 1 in 3 do not sell thread), or the prices that these properties are actually selling for are a long way off their asking prices.

That, as the prince of Denmark would say, is the question - how much lower than the asking price are specific properties actually selling for, and what is the average of that difference?

As I intimated in the recent thread on the latest RM asking price report, I've found a way of getting the answer, and the answer is a surprise. Pluck a number out of the air before you read on, and see how close you are.

A bit of background info on where it comes from. If you visit Zoopla's Sold Prices and enter a postcode, and then on the next page click "View all sold house prices in..." near the top, you get a list of the sold prices for the area. Some of the entries have an "H" icon under them and if you click that, it will give you an archived listing with the price on it. I'd always assumed it was the sold price, but it's the asking price.

By writing a bit of software that does that automatically, collecting the sold prices and the asking prices as it goes, I can create some statistics that answer the question for those sold prices where the asking price is known and published by Zoopla.

I imagine it is the last asking price before being removed rather than the initial. I've deliberately excluded those where the date of the archived page is over a certain age (at the moment it's 2 years but I think 3 months is probably better - but that means a smaller sample size).

Here are the results for the five months to March for BA11:

Mar 2015: -1.98% (6 Sales)Feb 2015: -3.39% (22 Sales)Jan 2015: -2.44% (23 Sales)Dec 2014: -3.14% (25 Sales)Nov 2014: -3.70% (24 Sales)

I don't know about you, but I was expecting the result to be 10-20%. Every area is obviously going to differ to some degree, but it would appear that in this postal area at least, it's *not* the case that sellers are accepting offers way below asking price.

Give me a postal area and I'll run the report for you on that area.

S6 and S10 please?

Edited by Saver

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I've added a couple of extra stats, the 1st being the most discount, the second the least, and then the mean - just for a bit of context.

Incidentally, I can go as far back as they have the data for, but I use the most recent 100 sales (for speed), so the dates go back differently depending on how recently the sales were. I can go further back if you have a special request:

Results for EX1===============Mar 2015: -5.66% / 0.00% / -1.88%	(7 Sales)Feb 2015: -11.11% / 0.00% / -4.05%	(8 Sales)Jan 2015: -9.82% / 3.00% / -3.08%	(21 Sales)Dec 2014: -7.50% / 4.00% / -1.39%	(13 Sales)Nov 2014: -7.98% / 0.00% / -2.36%	(27 Sales)Oct 2014: -8.00% / 21.08% / -1.88%	(23 Sales)Sep 2014: 12.90% / 12.90% / 12.90%	(1 Sales)
Results for EX2===============Mar 2015: -8.00% / 24.17% / -0.58%	(18 Sales)Feb 2015: -7.78% / 2.67% / -1.53%	(24 Sales)Jan 2015: -14.12% / 14.59% / -1.36%	(33 Sales)Dec 2014: -6.94% / 1.56% / -1.86%	(25 Sales)
Results for EX4===============Mar 2015: -9.91% / 2.42% / -2.45%	(14 Sales)Feb 2015: -12.28% / 17.75% / -2.36%	(36 Sales)Jan 2015: -12.98% / 8.57% / -2.16%	(44 Sales)Dec 2014: -6.25% / 4.17% / -2.49%	(6 Sales
Results for N4==============Mar 2015: -1.54% / 1.82% / 0.13%	(3 Sales)Feb 2015: -9.09% / 2.20% / -2.24%	(12 Sales)Jan 2015: -9.09% / 3.13% / -2.83%	(10 Sales)Dec 2014: -10.08% / 39.77% / 0.26%	(17 Sales)Nov 2014: -4.82% / 9.57% / -1.44%	(18 Sales)Oct 2014: -16.00% / 11.84% / -1.15%	(16 Sales)Sep 2014: -3.70% / 14.07% / 1.92%	(16 Sales)Aug 2014: -6.15% / 6.33% / 0.12%	(8 Sales)
Results for CH4===============Mar 2015: -10.00% / 0.00% / -3.79%	(7 Sales)Feb 2015: -9.58% / 1.72% / -2.90%	(11 Sales)Jan 2015: -15.97% / 0.00% / -5.24%	(20 Sales)Dec 2014: -14.71% / 29.50% / -3.08%	(32 Sales)Nov 2014: -8.24% / 0.00% / -4.32%	(18 Sales)Oct 2014: -49.99% / 0.00% / -7.86%	(12 Sales)
Results for SW19================Mar 2015: -11.10% / 3.26% / -3.60%	(20 Sales)Feb 2015: -10.09% / 5.26% / -2.52%	(28 Sales)Jan 2015: -8.00% / 12.01% / -2.31%	(41 Sales)Dec 2014: -5.71% / 113,672.46% / 10,331.89%	(11 Sales)

Look at that! 113k%! That is going to need some investigation, there's obviously some kind of mismatch there. I may need to ignore outliers of say less than half or more than twice.

I'll carry on though, next lot coming up...

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