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Anyone Know Where The £12Bn Of Welfare Cuts Will Come From?


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Yes, but you only qualify for the premium if you are on DLA or PIP (plus some other criteria). The new PIP is much harder to get than the old DLA - not saying there is anything wrong with that as no doubt there were people taking advantage, but many unwell people will get a large cut in their benefit - loss of DLA and loss of ESA element could easily account for half their current income. Also they are no longer able to reapply for ESA (to get in the support group) for the same condition unless it has significantly worsened or they have an additional condition.

What I'm trying to say really, is that some people have sleepwalked themselves into a corner with the changes - having been so relieved to get some benefit and not well enough to go through the appeal system for the support group they settled for WRAG. Now they have nowhere to go with it.

As I understand it, contributions based ESA WRAG is for one year only and then they are assessed for income based. I would expect a lot of people don't qualify for this and fall out of the system due to household income so maybe that's another reason the figure seems skewed. I don't believe income assessment applies to support group claimants though.

Yes its a year in the WRAG group.You are 100% right of course that a lot of people who should of been in the support group simply accepted the WRAG group because they didnt want to keep fighting.I know one lady who works and is crippled.She cant walk at all and is 100% genuine.She gets mobility,but wont claim for care even though she should get it because she is scared she would lose her mobility/car and that would mean she had to stop working.The regime really is brutal and genuine cases with no family support suffer greatly.

Tax credit video from the BBC,people saying they want more credits.Fancy that,they want more of other people money.

The BBC say people can get up to £2000 a year.Does the person writing the article know the first man will be getting £16,000+ a year?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33382304

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They might reduce the contributory to 6 months the same as JSA.Yes around 74% are in the support group as far as i know.The figures are pretty fluid though due to appeals etc.I expected the numbers to be the other way around as well.

I think ATOS have stopped doing proper assessments and almost everyone in the last couple of years has been put in the support group. I'm pretty sure that last time I looked the percentage of claimants being transferred from ICB to ESA who were being placed in the support group had rocketed from about 30% to over 90%. I think it was similar for new claimants too. If I've got this right then when the new assessor takes over from ATOS and repeats these assessments then a lot of cliamnats in the support group are going to be downgraded to the WRAG.

EDIT: 90% is a bit high when I've checked - it's more like 60% for new claimants going into the support group - when the scheme first started it was 12%.

EDIT2: and it's about 80% for claimants being transferred from ICB.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/384920/esa_wca_20141211_final.xlsx

EDIT3: This is just my own assumption as to what will happen - I've not read anyone else saying this - I don't want to worry anyone unnecesarily.

Edited by oldsport
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I think ATOS have stopped doing proper assessments and almost everyone in the last couple of years has been put in the support group. I'm pretty sure that last time I looked the percentage of claimants being transferred from ICB to ESA who were being placed in the support group had rocketed from about 30% to over 90%. I think it was similar for new claimants too. If I've got this right then when the new assessor takes over from ATOS and repeats these assessments then a lot of cliamnats in the support group are going to be downgraded to the WRAG.

EDIT: 90% is a bit high when I've checked - it's more like 55% for new claimants going into the support group - when the scheme first started it was 12%.

EDIT2: and it's about 80% for claimants being transferred from ICB.

Yes very interesting figures.In other words they simply couldnt handle the amount of appeals so put people into the support group until they assess them again.I would of expected a rate of 30% for the support group so 55% is indeed very high.The figures are very fluid though.A lot of people i know in the WRAG,mostly ex REMPLOY workers are desperate for a job, but get no help at all and only two out of 80+ have managed to get anything in 4 years.

They have a broad range of disabilities and have no chance of a job unless immigration was stopped.

ESA cuts to the WRAG would be terrible for this group of people as they find themselves in the same group as people with a bad finger.

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Yes very interesting figures.In other words they simply couldnt handle the amount of appeals so put people into the support group until they assess them again.I would of expected a rate of 30% for the support group so 55% is indeed very high.The figures are very fluid though.A lot of people i know in the WRAG,mostly ex REMPLOY workers are desperate for a job, but get no help at all and only two out of 80+ have managed to get anything in 4 years.

They have a broad range of disabilities and have no chance of a job unless immigration was stopped.

ESA cuts to the WRAG would be terrible for this group of people as they find themselves in the same group as people with a bad finger.

I agree with the other poster (Solitaire, I think) who said that this was the reason behind splitting ESA into two groups all along - going back to when it started under Labour in 2008. I remember at first we were told that the WRAG was purely so that you could get extra support finding work - then they took away the contribution based WRAG - now they may cut the level of payments for WRAG. The only fly in their oinment is that a lot more claimants than predicted have gone into the Support Group - although as I said above I believe that is temporary.

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If I remember rightly not only were reassessments deferred for a couple of years because of the backlog with ATOS but also the courts were so overwhelmed with appeals they were pretty much suspended. Maximus has taken over from ATOS now so it will be interesting to see if they are able to clear the backlog and get things back on track.

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The single dad with 4 kids is working minimum hours (possibly so he is not subject to the benefit cap) but at the moment he will be getting a considerable amount of money. Just took a look on the entitled to calculator and he would be getting over £26k in benefits alone, add on his wages and he is making the equivalent of someone on £40k (taxed).

I worked this out last year and can concur this is correct. The amount in child tax credits (on top of child benefit, income support oh and free rent in a land with a housing crisis) is truly shocking. What do they think these kids need to eat? Caviar? You have to be on more then the average wage to even be in the same ballpark. That's without taking into account the amount of free time. How do you even quantify that?

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That link.

Did you actually read it?

Workers OR jobs OR hours worked.

I have 5 workers, doing 5 jobs, doing 40 hrs.

1 doing 1 job for 40 hrs is actually less productive for me in terms of my business output.

And I suspect this is the norm now.

You are confusing the productivity of your business, measured by the input of capital, with the per-capita productivity of the nation. They are different numbers and are measuring different things.

For instance, your business might employ one worker for 40hours to produce 40 widgets. You might instead employ 5 workers for 8 hours each, who produce 10 widgets in 8 hours, giving you 50 widgets. Clearly your business has become more productive. But assuming your workers are watching telly the rest of the time, the nation now has a productivity problem because your 5 workers could be producing 200 widgets instead of 50.

It's a big problem if your competitor in China has workers producing 30 widgets in 40 hours, but having the same income as your workers working only 8 hours. Your workers are more productive, but in the long term it is you who will go out of business.

Edited by lastlaugh
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Doesn't it make you feel great to know your hard earned taxes are being spent so efficiently and that you are most likely taking home less for actual work and having to pay far more for housing than this guy; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3150348/Living-50-000-benefits-hate-preacher-inspired-beach-killer-Cleric-lives-five-bedroom-home-wife-five-children-thwarting-deportation-attempts-15-years.html

He has escaped the benefit cap due to a disability. Makes one think there should be some capping even for households receiving DLA.

Edited by Fairyland
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Only if she's failed to pop out another child at an appropriate gap.

Yes thats the usual defence.I expect we might see some changes tomorrow to affect that.A two child limit though does nothing to stop it happening.Much lower amounts is the only real answer.I keep hearing working tax credit is the target as its easier from a political point.Getting rid of that would cut tax credits by a big amount for people in work.

The problem is it wouldnt cut anything for people out of work.If it was my call i would cut working tax credit down to £1500 for single and £2500 for couples.Cut child tax credits to £38 a week.Place a two child limit.Start means testing from £2500 instead of £6400.That would see tax credits go at NMW x 2 for couples with two children.Increase the hours rules to 25 once a child is 6 for single people 40 for couples.

That would keep a safety net,remove the huge payments and make sure anything after NMW was kept by the worker as tax credits will of ended.

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Guest eight

He has escaped the benefit cap due to a disability. Makes one think there should be some capping even for households receiving DLA.

I've never had it satisfactorily explained to me why disabled people need more money. Normally if you ask the question you either get called names but don't receive an answer, or people claim that they deserve it as some kind of cosmic compensation for the misfortune of their circumstances. But I don't understand on a practical level why their day to day costs should be higher.

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I've never had it satisfactorily explained to me why disabled people need more money. Normally if you ask the question you either get called names but don't receive an answer, or people claim that they deserve it as some kind of cosmic compensation for the misfortune of their circumstances. But I don't understand on a practical level why their day to day costs should be higher.

Would think higher costs of getting around (depending on type and extent of disability).

Guy next door to me was always getting taxi's. Now he's got an electric moped/wheelchair thing to get around. Mind thanks to technology those are not as expensive as they were

Edited by RentierParadisio
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I've never had it satisfactorily explained to me why disabled people need more money. Normally if you ask the question you either get called names but don't receive an answer, or people claim that they deserve it as some kind of cosmic compensation for the misfortune of their circumstances. But I don't understand on a practical level why their day to day costs should be higher.

Obviously it depends on the nature of the disability but......travel, transport, adaptations to the home, special equipment to carry out normal living and above all else additional human help which has to be paid for. You empty your own bins, mow your own lawn and paint your own ceilings. All these things are far more difficult with restricted mobility or blindness.

They way some people carry on you think the disabled had won the lottery of life as they get a discounted car and a few extra quid a week to help out. I'll keep my functioning human body instead thanks.

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Obviously it depends on the nature of the disability but......travel, transport, adaptations to the home, special equipment to carry out normal living and above all else additional human help which has to be paid for. You empty your own bins, mow your own lawn and paint your own ceilings. All these things are far more difficult with restricted mobility or blindness.

They way some people carry on you think the disabled had won the lottery of life as they get a discounted car and a few extra quid a week to help out. I'll keep my functioning human body instead thanks.

^This. My brother (sadly died last year) was wheelchair-disabled and worked for himself as a self-employed tax accountant. He estimated that his living costs were about 25% higher than non-disabled people (adaptations, equipment, basic help getting out of bed, washing etc). The benefits he got, which really didn't amount to much, went some way to levelling the playing field for him.

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Damp squib & appeasement tomorrow?

Any cuts drawn out and nobody losing anything untill 2017?

Applicable to new claims only thus avoiding any backlash?

I can see all of the above still only 24hrs to go now.

Could be.

However it could also be opposite and they go nuclear.They know they have two chances to be rid of Browns tax credits.Tomorrow,or after a Greek style event here.

Labour is in tatters and they won an election on the promise of welfare cuts.I wouldnt be shocked if they say they have found more than £12 billion of welfare cuts.

The headlines tomorrow wont mean anything.It will be the small print.As soon as those budget documents are published il be diving in.Id expect first cuts to kick in next April and be done in two goes.

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Could be.

However it could also be opposite and they go nuclear.They know they have two chances to be rid of Browns tax credits.Tomorrow,or after a Greek style event here.

Labour is in tatters and they won an election on the promise of welfare cuts.I wouldnt be shocked if they say they have found more than £12 billion of welfare cuts.

The headlines tomorrow wont mean anything.It will be the small print.As soon as those budget documents are published il be diving in.Id expect first cuts to kick in next April and be done in two goes.

Funny, I asked my wife last night if we should expect the nail girl in Corrie to be complaning about cuts in tax credits on Friday night. :)

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Could be.

However it could also be opposite and they go nuclear.They know they have two chances to be rid of Browns tax credits.Tomorrow,or after a Greek style event here.

Labour is in tatters and they won an election on the promise of welfare cuts.I wouldnt be shocked if they say they have found more than £12 billion of welfare cuts.

The headlines tomorrow wont mean anything.It will be the small print.As soon as those budget documents are published il be diving in.Id expect first cuts to kick in next April and be done in two goes.

+1

And Frank Field has come out against them.

I think Gidiot is pretty aware that is comes across as a wet git; Cameron's hatchet man.

He also seems to a much better political operator than Brown.

Anytime things went wrong fro Brown - and they did on everything he did, massively so - he just threw money at them because he's a wierd, dysfunctional useless tnuc.

There's a possibility that Labour will not survive as a party.

Melvyn Bragg was right. EdM should have hung on to try and sort the party out.

Its not entirely his fault - Gordy gutted the Labour party, so all his special people could have a clear run at all the jobs.

Gordy got shot of about 2 generations of strong Labour leaders, leaving the party with his Yes men and an new 2010/2015 MPs.

Gordy was a fcking disaster for all parties - the UK, people on benefits, tax payers, Scotland etc etc.

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