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Anyone Know Where The £12Bn Of Welfare Cuts Will Come From?


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The Tory's have to find £12bn in Welfare cuts. They can't and won't cut State Pensions (I think 42% of Welfare budget), so that leaves only a few: tax credits, housing benefit, child benefit and disability/incapacity benefits. The favourite that I've been reading about is incapacity but there's no official line yet. Anyone want to punt? Also, when will it be announced?

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I doubt they know either. They expected to be trading these welfare cuts for an EU referendum with whoever they were to find themselves in coalition with. Like the last parliament, they will get closer to Labour borrowing figures than their own, having promised hellfire and damnation on the financial markets if such reckless plans are allowed to pass. They have at least allowed the moratorium on wealthy pensioner benefits to run out. I wonder how many wealthy pensioners realised this when they voted. But they won't save £12bn from paring the winter fuel allowance from those with a holiday villa.

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Partly from diversity type workers etc losing their jobs? Then they'll have to take up apprenticeships?

Fewer ziggy zaggy lines on the roads etc. That's not strictly under the heading of welfare as usually understood but it would save billions and might even help to reduce the oil price ;) .

Edited by billybong
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Cut tax credits, thats 30 bill there and they are an abomination anyway.

Tax credits seems to be the only option, nothing else in the welfare budget is close to large enough to get anywhere near £12bn.

Also they have the additional advantage that you can cut them without "cutting them". Up the number of hours work to qualify and people have to earn more money to qualify for the credits, hence a lower TC award.

Likewise you can save some coin by limiting them to 2 children,.which again isn't a "cut" and is unlikely to prove controversial.

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Increasing the free 3&4 childcare to 30hours might require some kind of cut or change to benefits. Would be a sneaky thing to do. Oh the policy is also I suspect unworkable in sector. Nowhere near £12bn savings.

Tax credits probably fall outside the promise to not increase vat, income tax, national insurance. Sneaky?

Edited by Ash4781
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Problem with cutting tax credits is that government is already lending money to homebuyers based on this "income". The benefits are leveraged to subsidise house prices. Also housing benefit is basically a HPI prop. Boris Johnson sqealled a lot last time they tried to cut it.

Whatever they save in welfare, it will be dwarfed by the extra needed to keep the NHS afloat.

The only growth is coming from the heavily subsidised, mostly nationalised housing market. I Don't see how they can cut the deficit.

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Partly from diversity type workers etc losing their jobs? Then they'll have to take up apprenticeships?

Fewer ziggy zaggy lines on the roads etc. That's not strictly under the heading of welfare as usually understood but it would save billions and might even help to reduce the oil price ;) .

Most welfare is no longer welfare as usually understood. It's going to those who can afford a mortgage and have 20k in savings for a deposit. And to landlords who want to increase btl portfolios. And to those who overstretch their finances to buy a bigger house. And to companies who employ staff in the south east to subsidise the wages of staff who can't afford housing. And of course to keep RBS lending to those who can't repay. Welfare has been redefined.

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The Tory's have to find £12bn in Welfare cuts. They can't and won't cut State Pensions (I think 42% of Welfare budget), so that leaves only a few: tax credits, housing benefit, child benefit and disability/incapacity benefits. The favourite that I've been reading about is incapacity but there's no official line yet. Anyone want to punt? Also, when will it be announced?

They are cutting the benefit cap - hooray. I would guess raising the number of hours that people work to get tax credits sounds fair to me.

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I think the biggie, child tax credit will be limited to two children. They've made noises in that direction anyway. Doubt it will apply to existing claims so initial impact will be limited.

Perhaps they could reduce the child's age child tax credit is paid to.

Working tax credit and child tax credit could be means tested as well, that would be a bummer for a lot of people. I suspect there's a few BTL landlords getting it - owning a second property would terminate your tax credits for sure if it was means tested.

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Something has to change in the welfare culture, I watched Benefits Street last night and that will be the last time. Set somewhere in the North East (I think) it made the Birmingham lot look very harmless. Ok it's not typical, but still.

We had the kids ganging up on the only person that had ever worked on the street a disabled elderly bloke. unfortunately the non working women and kids had turned it into something of a paedo hunt because nobody liked him. Indeed when the bloke hits back at one of the kids the cops were called in and the women and children camped outside his house vigilante style. The blokes were on drugs and on a short fuse. one buys a useless bike for £950 and then it doesn't work which is a good excuse for a fight with the nearest bloke.

you need to be strapped into a chair for this one, truly depressing. Makes Jeremy Kyle look like Andy Pandy.

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Something has to change in the welfare culture, I watched Benefits Street last night and that will be the last time. Set somewhere in the North East (I think) it made the Birmingham lot look very harmless. Ok it's not typical, but still.

We had the kids ganging up on the only person that had ever worked on the street a disabled elderly bloke. unfortunately the non working women and kids had turned it into something of a paedo hunt because nobody liked him. Indeed when the bloke hits back at one of the kids the cops were called in and the women and children camped outside his house vigilante style. The blokes were on drugs and on a short fuse. one buys a useless bike for £950 and then it doesn't work which is a good excuse for a fight with the nearest bloke.

you need to be strapped into a chair for this one, truly depressing. Makes Jeremy Kyle look like Andy Pandy.

Never seen that show, but you have confirmed my expectations. Grim viewing indeed.

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Something has to change in the welfare culture, I watched Benefits Street last night and that will be the last time. Set somewhere in the North East (I think) it made the Birmingham lot look very harmless. Ok it's not typical, but still.

We had the kids ganging up on the only person that had ever worked on the street a disabled elderly bloke. unfortunately the non working women and kids had turned it into something of a paedo hunt because nobody liked him. Indeed when the bloke hits back at one of the kids the cops were called in and the women and children camped outside his house vigilante style. The blokes were on drugs and on a short fuse. one buys a useless bike for £950 and then it doesn't work which is a good excuse for a fight with the nearest bloke.

you need to be strapped into a chair for this one, truly depressing. Makes Jeremy Kyle look like Andy Pandy.

Stockton.

Greater 'boro throws up quite a bit of scum.

I come from an area ~2hours by bus from 'boro.

Its a pain the ass. I spent my life with 'boro scum starting fights in pubs, knicking big jars of coffee from the shops etc.

'boro's problem is that in an average town, about ~4% of the population is scum.

In 'boro its around ~20%

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When tax credits were introduced, my sister immediately cut her hours from 37 a week to 16 and was no worse off (travel to work costs, childcare). I am convinced that there are thousands like her. I regularly hear people comment that it's "their right" to spend time at home with their children rather than work. I agree that it should be - but not at somebody else's cost. If you can't afford your mortgage when you cut your hours, sell your house.

The problem now is that there is probably very little work available to all these people who are about to have their benefits cut. That will cause real hardship.

Maybe this will also tip the housing market downwards once more - i'm not sure that you can count tax credits when you take up a mortgage, but there's certainly no reason for you not to cut your hours when you've got one.

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I am convinced that there are thousands like her. I regularly hear people comment that it's "their right" to spend time at home with their children rather than work.

Unbelievable. If I heard that in earshot there'd be a very big argument! As I am a very lazy sort of worker drone. ;)

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