The Masked Tulip Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 They reckon that the UK will go negative re the inflation figures on Tuesday - apparently this will be a one-off. Presumably the markets will... do what on these figures? Panic that the UK is about to fall into a massive hole as firms sell goods for less or surge on the idea that goods are cheaper in the shops and people will be out spending. I imagine that the media will be full of articles about goods getting cheaper and that retailers will benefit as a result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spyguy Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I bet 0.4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It seems all the worlds advanced economies are heading the way of the Japanese. Soon everyone will have 200%+ debt to GDP ratios. The supermarkets are in a price war because people can't afford to buy food like they once did. It's like we lived in some sort of bubble economy.... Can't wait for the spin how this is a bit of temporary good news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It seems all the worlds advanced economies are heading the way of the Japanese. Soon everyone will have 200%+ debt to GDP ratios. The supermarkets are in a price war because people can't afford to buy food like they once did. It's like we lived in some sort of bubble economy.... Can't wait for the spin how this is a bit of temporary good news. I reckon your right re: Japan. The weathers looking ripe for some food deflation this year. Wouldn't surprise me if the nasty party sent out the troops to destroy some crops and push up inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
council dweller Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 0.1% deflation. It`s raining. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Markets will rise on the expectation of yet more stimulus? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Swap rates/mortgage rates are on the up. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/11609111/Mortgage-rates-edge-up-thanks-to-higher-wholesale-costs.html Five-year fixed mortgage rates are starting to creep up after weeks of price rises on the markets where lenders access money for loans. Experts are warning rates may be about to rise further. Last week HSBC pulled its market-leading 1.99pc fix and other lenders increased their rates, such as Coventry Building Society, which repriced its 2.19pc deal to 2.39pc. The pricing of mortgages depends mostly on whether banks can access cheap funds. Lenders borrow on money markets, buying at the “swap” rate for a certain time period. These swap rates (the five-year rate is shown above) are loosely linked to the yield on gilts or UK government bonds, which after years of falls have been rising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It will be +0.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It seems all the worlds advanced economies are heading the way of the Japanese. Soon everyone will have 200%+ debt to GDP ratios. The supermarkets are in a price war because people can't afford to buy food like they once did. It's like we lived in some sort of bubble economy.... Can't wait for the spin how this is a bit of temporary good news. Nah.......hard of thinking meme du jour. 3 years ago this site was ranting cause inflation was 5%. Supermarkets are in a price war because of competitiion. Food is falling in price because its volatile (and the QE = hyperinflation merchants were 100% wrong) Simples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Nah.......hard of thinking meme du jour. 3 years ago this site was ranting cause inflation was 5%. Supermarkets are in a price war because of competitiion. Food is falling in price because its volatile (and the QE = hyperinflation merchants were 100% wrong) Simples. The price has been on younger people to keep those at the top happy with outrageous real estate valuations. They in turn say, carry on, nobody died. It concerns me there is no anger about it. Landlordism + insane high house prices + all the multi £$ QE'd. ECB tells you... "Yes it inflates asset prices, but it lowers borrowing costs... so go out and borrow, set up a business, take out larger mortgage and maybe one day you can afford." It will be +0.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Best way to get some spending going would be to crash the housing market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billybong Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 (edited) Swap rates/mortgage rates are on the up. The lenders and estate agents etc have done their job in the lead up to the general election and helped to support house prices to help a Conservative victory. They can retreat a bit now until the next election comes into view - maybe even retreat a lot. Expect some redundancies of those taken on before the election to boost the unemployment numbers as well. A handy justification as the eu referendum approaches will be "business uncertainty" so job numbers have to be cut - so you'd all better vote to stay in type of ploy. In the telegraph article the 5 year swap rate chart has formed a well defined double bottom with a strong possibility of the rate almost doubling in the near future. Whatever that might turn out to mean for the future - if the doubling happens. Edited May 18, 2015 by billybong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InlikeFlynn Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I'm not sure it will affect tomorrow's release but crude oil (and hence fuel) prices have been rising slowly for the past few weeks. Brent crude is up more than 30% (in $s) from its low in January/February. This effect will feed in to the figures for the next few months so I don't expect to see any signficant deflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bloo Loo Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 If any proof was needed that they are measuring and targetting the wrong figure, they will say lower prices are a drag on the economy. WOW, GDP is down a bit, its a drag, we need growth. ignored...people can buy more stuff, we have growth, just the wrong kind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 It will be +0.0 I disagree. -0.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Swap rates/mortgage rates are on the up. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/11609111/Mortgage-rates-edge-up-thanks-to-higher-wholesale-costs.html Some sharp fluctuations for mortgage rates in US past week+, but seemingly setting back now. Hit a 2015 high on 12 and 13 May 2015... after some tremors in US/Euro bond market. Well a little shakeout anyway, with bond yields so low. http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consumer_rates/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Swap rates/mortgage rates are on the up. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/11609111/Mortgage-rates-edge-up-thanks-to-higher-wholesale-costs.html Chesney 'HPC is the One and Only' Hawkes story to the right... counting the HPI. Don't worry Chezza, so many HPCers on standby for breakdowns if prices fall... 'won't you think of the wombles who just paid £1.2m' - 'they only wanted a home.' Now 43, he and his wife Kristina live in Los Angeles with their three children. Do you own a property? I still have my two-bed house in west London, which I rent out. It’s the best investment I ever made. I bought it in 1993 for £120,000. It’s worth a lot now – £850,000. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/fameandfortune/11605555/Chesney-Hawkes-No.1-single-I-was-left-with-arrears-and-a-20000-overdraft.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nnails Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 my favorite chinese takeway put there chicken curry up from £6 to £6.10 . damm almost went hungry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 I can't wait to see tomorrow's juxtaposition of cost of living falling and house prices rising headlines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dances with sheeple Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Yes, the Chesney Hawkes interview is interesting, as are the links to Steve Hackett and Nick Kershaw, especially the property opinions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Assume The Opposite Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 A bit of deflation can't hurt right? Only if your a banker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted May 18, 2015 Share Posted May 18, 2015 Best way to get some spending going would be to crash the housing market? if only i had a pound ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Well Carney at last weeks press conference mentioned cpi might turn negative in come months. He may have had advanced viewing of this months. At a guess it's 0.0%. However, unleaded where I am is back to 119p a litre. I suspect still down year on year but rising strongly month on month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 Well Carney at last weeks press conference mentioned cpi might turn negative in come months. He may have had advanced viewing of this months. At a guess it's 0.0%. However, unleaded where I am is back to 119p a litre. I suspect still down year on year but rising strongly month on month. Yup, steady 3p a week rises down here in nth Dorset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giesahoose Posted May 19, 2015 Share Posted May 19, 2015 0.1% dum dum duuuum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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