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disenfranchised

Key Predictions - Just For Fun!

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Assume the next election is May 2020, what do you expect the following to be in relation to today (actual value or % change from today):

Land Registry average UK property price
Land Registry average London property price
FTSE 100
RPI
Oil price
Gold price
BOE base rate
Budget deficit
National debt

Edited by disenfranchised

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Land Registry average UK property price £280k
Land Registry average London property price £1m
FTSE 100 8500
RPI 3.0
Oil price $100/barrel
Gold price $1000/oz
BOE base rate 0.5
Budget deficit £80bn
National debt £2.5tr

Edited by subspace

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Land Registry average UK property price 180k

Land Registry average London Property price 750k

FTSE 100 7000

RPI 2.7%

Oil price $90/barrel

Gold price $900/oz

BOE base rate 0.75%

Budget deficit £70bn

National debt £2.2tr

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To be honest they are all impossible to predict as we have no idea where the next crisis will be and the effects that it will have.

If we keep the global plates spinning I'll say higher to them all.

Given that we owe around £1.5tr, this is unlikely to go down.

If we had a £100bn surplus it will take around 15 years to bring it zero.

£75bn a year surplus 20 years.

£50bn a year surplus 30 years

£25bn a year surplus 60 years

£20bn a year surplus 70 years

We already have a debt that realistically will never ever be paid off. The deficit is here to stay.

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If the UK experiences another financial crisis before 2020 then these numbers will be sharply lower than today. If the UK survives another five years without a financial crisis then in all likelihood they will be significantly higher.

The hard evidence is that the UK will experience another financial crisis before 2020.

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If the UK experiences another financial crisis before 2020 then these numbers will be sharply lower than today. If the UK survives another five years without a financial crisis then in all likelihood they will be significantly higher.

This is everything in a nutshell. And if we get to 2020 without a financial crisis, it means the financial crisis after 2020 will be even bigger.

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Zero Hedge were reporting that credit markets had a problem a few days ago. A financial crisis is almost certain before 2020. Anything could set it off. No matter how many times Osborne repeats 'long term economic plan', it won't stop anything.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/credit-markets-have-melted-overnight-derivatives-are-a-1-quadrillion-ticking-time-bomb/5449142

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Guest The Relaxation Suite

I'm with zugzwang. I think the UK is on course to experience another financial crisis before 2020. I also expect some serious foreign policy issues to be cooking up nicely by then as well, such as Chinese expansion in the South China Sea and also I read in the tea leaves that we're not finished marauding our way around the ME yet either, so not sure what that will do. Prediction a mug's game. UK national debt could easily be £2 trillion by then anyway.

Edited by The Relaxation Suite

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I too think it is impossible to call with any confidence - hence the 'just for fun' in the title!

I'll go for it being pretty stagnant against today, having had a flop and come back a bit

Land Registry average UK property price £160k
Land Registry average London property price £300k
FTSE 100 - 6500
RPI 1.5%
Oil price £90/barrel
Gold price £1000/oz
BOE base rate 0.9%
Budget deficit 4%
National debt £1.9 trillion

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Land Registry average UK property price £500k

Land Registry average London property price £2m

FTSE 100 24,000

RPI 9.0

Oil price $200/barrel

Gold price $10,000/oz

BOE base rate 16%

Budget deficit £500bn

National debt £5.5tr


Kaboom!

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