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Why Will We Not See A Japanese Style Downturn?

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http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2005/20050328.html

The Japanese experience of the past 17 years appears to be coming to an end with recently a small up turn in prices. The above article is a few months old but it does illustrate the Japanese experience quite well.

My question is why are we (and for that matter the rest of the globe) unlikely to experience the same phenomenon? I have read views in a number of threads that the Japanese model is unlikely in the current UK climate. I am expecting YOY HPI to turn negative quite soon across most of the indices, but with low interest rates, reasonably high employment, continued "upbeat" sentiment and the absence of any possible trigger - is the fact that FTBs can no longer afford to buy property sufficient to result in a rapid (ie. 10-15% YOY) reduction in prices?

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http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2005/20050328.html

The Japanese experience of the past 17 years appears to be coming to an end with recently a small up turn in prices. The above article is a few months old but it does illustrate the Japanese experience quite well.

My question is why are we (and for that matter the rest of the globe) unlikely to experience the same phenomenon? I have read views in a number of threads that the Japanese model is unlikely in the current UK climate. I am expecting YOY HPI to turn negative quite soon across most of the indices, but with low interest rates, reasonably high employment, continued "upbeat" sentiment and the absence of any possible trigger - is the fact that FTBs can no longer afford to buy property sufficient to result in a rapid (ie. 10-15% YOY) reduction in prices?

Pick this apart . . . . .

"The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister has said that house prices across the UK continued their fall in the year to October!"

http://www.housefund.co.uk/news/2005/12/of...ther-house.html

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http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2005/20050328.html

The Japanese experience of the past 17 years appears to be coming to an end with recently a small up turn in prices. The above article is a few months old but it does illustrate the Japanese experience quite well.

My question is why are we (and for that matter the rest of the globe) unlikely to experience the same phenomenon? I have read views in a number of threads that the Japanese model is unlikely in the current UK climate. I am expecting YOY HPI to turn negative quite soon across most of the indices, but with low interest rates, reasonably high employment, continued "upbeat" sentiment and the absence of any possible trigger - is the fact that FTBs can no longer afford to buy property sufficient to result in a rapid (ie. 10-15% YOY) reduction in prices?

here is why we could: 1)debt burden is too high,it is outstripping income

2)unemployment will increase...and taxes will rise(oops)

3)recent employment growth has been in the wealth consuming public sector.

4)see 3 and factor in more tax rises because of this.

5)tax rises will hurt spending

6)energy price rises will hurt spending

7)lower spending causes higher unemployment

6)go back to 1 and repeat several more times.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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