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homeless

A Message For The Deluded

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Many people think we talk nonsense on here, they come on here for a look at the strange doom mongers they precieve us to be.They also spew out the party line, well i want to help get there heads straight, we aint your enemies here we are infact your friends.

Now you all come here with your nationwide, your halifax, your rightmove figures.

Now please think for a moment

Think why it's only companies with a vested intrest in housing, companies that earn there living in housing, people that have there money in housing, banks that loan money for housing, that continue to say house prices are still rising.Anyone else that is neutral that does not have a vested intrest is telling you they are infact going down and/or are ready for a drop.

There is nothing in it for them they can tell how it is, these are the same people that recorded rises in value, they have no reason to tell overwise how it is.The media recieves its stats from the vested intrests and its them that push hardest for their figures to be published and banded about the net, this creates the illusion all is well.

Dont you think its funny how the more intrest in house prices any house price index producer has the more they will say there going up? does that not ring any alarm bells to you.

think about it, be smart dont be a sheep, and dont be manipulated.Look for other sources for your confirmation.That is what we do here and thats why this site and the regulars on it have probably a better understanding of what is happening and about to happen than any other source in the uk.We on here discuss and look into the details more than your journalist does, more than your financial advisor does.

Dont come on here spouting crap about the nationwide figures untill you have read between the lines and understand a bit about whats going on.We aint your enemies and its not our fault if you depend greatly on your house price going up, the news is all here go read it.We have nothing to hide unlike the sources you have been getting your information from.

edited for my appalling grammer and spelling, which is being used by the vested intrests to deflect the points made.

notice how its only landlords that seem to come on here ie ttrtr,ll ect that continue to say all is rosy:P

another vested intrest group.

Edited by homeless

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Good thread.

There needs replacing with their.. But I am guilty of spelling errors here to.

A good thing to look for are the reports claiming over the last year that BTL and Sipps were going to keep the market rising.

Last week Sipps were removed from property.

Last week major BTL mortgage lenders announced that they would no longer lend against new builds. Citing concerns of an oversupply of new build properties.

Niether of these points which some consider (and I think rightly so) will have removed over half of the potential buyers of new build properties has been reported in the press.

Infact in the same week we saw the council of mortgage lenders quickly suggesting that house prices would rise faster in the new year then they had thought the previous month..

Weird.. but great timing for them

Is there an oversupply?

Well some Vested Interests claim no. These are Estate agencies (rightmove etc) these make money from sales

But others who have a Vested Interest on people paying back mortgages against BTL's say that there are.

Who would you believe.

and if house prices were likely to rise... Would this lender not have continued to supply mortgages against a fantastically lucrative market?

They would be mad not to.

and tomorrow america is rising it's IR's to 4.25%..

catching up with us...?

We are told that rates will drop here..

But who tells us this..? The VI's in the press.

We would be the only economy in the world to be heading down.

Mervin King, head of the MPC said last year that House prices were only a matter of opinion but that debt is real.

Think about that.

Think who is shapping your opinion.

Edited by apom

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many people think we talk nonsense on here, they come on here for a look at the strange doom mongers they precieve we are.

The also spew out the party line, well i want to help get there heads straight, we aint your enemies here we are infact your friends.

Now you all come here with your nationwide, your halifax, your rightmove figures.

Now please think for a moment

think why its only companies with a vested intrest in housing, companies that earn there living in housing, people that have there money in housing, banks that loan money for housing, that continue to say house prices are still rising.

Anyone else that is neutral that does not have a vested intrest is telling you they are infact going down and/or are ready for a drop.

There is nothing in it for them they can tell how it is, these are the same people that recorded rises in value, they have no reason to tell overwise how it is.

The media recieves its stats from the vested intrests and its them that push hardest for there figures to be published and banded about the net, this creates the illusion all is well.

Dont you think its funny how the more intrest in house prices any house price index producer has the more they will say there going up?

does that not ring any alarm bells to you.

think about it, be smart dont be a sheep, and dont be manipulated.Look for other sources for your confirmation.That is what we do here and thats why this site and the regulars on it have probably a better understanding of what is happening and about to happen than any other source in the uk.We on here discuss and look into the details more than your journalist does, more than your financial advisor.

Dont come on here spouting crap about the nationwide figures untill you have read between the lines and understand a bit about whats going on.We aint your enemies and its not our fault if you depend greatly on your house price going up, the news is all here go read it.We have nothing to hide unlike the sources you have been getting your information from.

I'll try again.

For your diatribe to be taken seriously you need to consider the effect it will have on those you seek to influence. By calling them deluded doesn't help your case. Nor do your appalling spelling, grammar and wanton generalisations.

This site is becoming increasingly insular and polarised. Fairly soon it will be a cosy flock of like minded souls desperate for a shepherd.

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The key thing to consider is that just because the average sale price of houses is going up (if it really is) that doesn't mean that house prices are going up. It may also mean that cheaper houses are just not being sold (which is likely to happen when FTBs get priced out of the market). Do not assume that the average sale price is the price of the average house. Price distribution is not necessarily fixed.

MattLG

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'The Halifax, the country's largest mortgage lender'

No.

The Halifax, the county's most exposed mortgage lender'

If I was them I would be spinning the figures and news as much as possible too.

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and your point is, Steve?

or do you just think this post should be bumped back up to the top of teh forum?

My point is that there's little to be gained by alienating your intended audience. Very easy on this forum to repeat the cosy platitudes that everyone likes to read. Doesn't actually result in very much. Even if they're well argued. A little contention to keep people thinking is not a bad thing IMO.

Bumping a post up to the top of the forum worked well for one of your previously ignored posts I recall.

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perhaps steve you should read it again, i was attempting to instill education in the guillable that only recieve vested intrest media reports.

quote

we aint your enemies here we are infact your friends.

alienating people indeed

all you want to do it seems is deflect the issues raised and talk about my grammer instead.you aint fooling anyone

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perhaps steve you should read it again, i was attempting to instill education in the guillable that only recieve vested intrest media reports.

quote

we aint your enemies here we are infact your friends.

alienating people indeed

all you want to do it seems is deflect the issues raised and talk about my grammer instead.you aint fooling anyone

sipps was just stopped dead in its tracks..

One of the biggest mortgage BTL providers just abandoned new builds claiming that prices were falling, and that there was an oversupply

tomorrow the Americans hit 4.25% IR's

bulls are now picking holes in grammar.. Two reasons.

1: They must now see the writting on the wall. you would have to be blind or deluded not to.

2: Well.. it was pretty awful grammar.

but the offence was made as you stated what is now obvious to anyone who pays attention to detail.

and the bulls have all but gone now because they know that.

fun top stick the boot in when they thought we were wrong, less so as they must know we are right..

and perhaps.. well perhaps because they know now that it always was this obvious.

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sipps was just stopped dead in its tracks..

One of the biggest mortgage BTL providers just abandoned new builds claiming that prices were falling, and that there was an oversupply

tomorrow the Americans hit 4.25% IR's

bulls are now picking holes in grammar.. Two reasons.

1: They must now see the writting on the wall. you would have to be blind or deluded not to.

2: Well.. it was pretty awful grammar.

but the offence was made as you stated what is now obvious to anyone who pays attention to detail.

and the bulls have all but gone now because they know that.

fun top stick the boot in when they thought we were wrong, less so as they must know we are right..

and perhaps.. well perhaps because they know now that it always was this obvious.

I can only speak for myself but as someone with moderate views i stopped posting b/c of all the attacks and rubbishing of anything i posted on these boards. also found it "interesting" how people rubbish the bbc/Times etc one day than use them as "evidence" to support their views another. I purchased at a price i was happy with when i purchased a 1 bed flat this autumn. but i was called a liar/troll/LL/BTl etc. i did my research and with the Euro tunnel relocating - from Waterloo, South London to 5 mins away from me to its new site in North London in circa 2007 - i FEEL prices will hold to what i paid in this area. For this i was told to f**k off! etc. And if i have got it wrong......well i will have to deal with the consequences.

Everyday conflicting reports are published with FT, Times, BBC et al, (i will not include the VI) offering different views points on the prospect of house price inflation. If there was more debate on these boards i would be interested to participate........as it is i would prefer to read and follow the thoughts of SOME posters IMO who really know their stuff.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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Guest The_Oldie

I can only speak for myself but as someone with moderate views i stopped posting b/c of all the attacks and rubbishing of anything i posted on these boards.

Strange, you registered on 28th November 2005 and have posted every day (except weekends) since then!

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I can only speak for myself but as someone with moderate views i stopped posting b/c of all the attacks and rubbishing of anything i posted on these boards. also found it "interesting" how people rubbish the bbc/Times etc one day than use them as "evidence" to support their views another. I purchased at a price i was happy with when i purchased a 1 bed flat this autumn. but i was called a liar/troll/LL/BTl etc. i did my research and with the Euro tunnel relocating - from Waterloo, South London to 5 mins away from me to its new site in North London in circa 2007 - i FEEL prices will hold to what i paid in this area. For this i was told to f**k off! etc. And if i have got it wrong......well i will have to deal with the consequences.

Everyday conflicting reports are published with FT, Times, BBC et al, (i will not include the VI) offering different views points on the prospect of house price inflation. If there was more debate on these boards i would be interested to participate........as it is i would prefer to read and follow the thoughts of SOME posters IMO who really know their stuff.

fair play,

but do you live in Devon?

I do. I hold a senior role as a technical consultant on what is a great wage for the area.

a one bed flat is still 6 times my salary..

Not the average house.

the smallest of flat.

We are surrounded by empty houses..

I have been offered salaries by professional people that I know in London that would trebble my salary here.

but house prices are less then 50% more in London.

House price inflation in london as been high.

Here it has been comical.

but with 50% of the developments in the posh docklands area stood empty and with twice as many on their way up.

With sipps now gone and BTL sensibly gone. (50% of the new builds in docklands that are empty are waiting to be rented.. ouch to that rather large mortgage..)

London only needed a certain amount of new builds.. as did devon, as did anyhwere..

and if you look at the population levels in the country.

birth rates are very low, migration is high.. but add them together and they are less then those poor souls that shuffle of each year..

Population is shrinking.

Been hearing it for years.. I always said it would take a while.. but it will be lower when I buy then the amount I would still owe if I bought now.

As for the abuse, it is a shame.

but I also have got emotional about it

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fair play,

but do you live in Devon?

I do. I hold a senior role as a technical consultant on what is a great wage for the area.

a one bed flat is still 6 times my salary..

Not the average house.

the smallest of flat.

We are surrounded by empty houses..

I have been offered salaries by professional people that I know in London that would trebble my salary here.

but house prices are less then 50% more in London.

House price inflation in london as been high.

Here it has been comical.

but with 50% of the developments in the posh docklands area stood empty and with twice as many on their way up.

With sipps now gone and BTL sensibly gone. (50% of the new builds in docklands that are empty are waiting to be rented.. ouch to that rather large mortgage..)

London only needed a certain amount of new builds.. as did devon, as did anyhwere..

and if you look at the population levels in the country.

birth rates are very low, migration is high.. but add them together and they are less then those poor souls that shuffle of each year..

Population is shrinking.

Been hearing it for years.. I always said it would take a while.. but it will be lower when I buy then the amount I would still owe if I bought now.

As for the abuse, it is a shame.

but I also have got emotional about it

thank you for this post. i have stated many times on this site that i am interested in getting a fuller picture of the UK housing market, as i have no idea what is happening in other parts of UK - i only see figures that are available to the masses. my own particular reasons for buying would not not apply to others. But just as i do not call you - or others - a liar for the facts you/they state on this site, i feel others should show the same respect to me. i only know of my local market and just as people - with all due respect - who post from say Leeds or Liverpool for example may know their area, they do not know of the specific dynamics that make up my area. Not all places in UK are having a direct link to Paris built on their doorstep. so when people call me a fool/idiot/or liar i think you can see why i got frustrated.................Because my point has always been that the rate/scale/timing of price reductions may differ. certain areas of UK may crash badly, but in central London zone 1, in the area i reside, there are other contributory factors. Plus i got a deal i am happy with on the property i purchased ........But as stated b4 anything can and does happen in London......so my thoughts can not be set in stone.

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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thank you for this post. i have stated many times on this site that i am interested in getting a fuller picture of the UK housing market, as i have no idea what is happening in other parts of UK - i only see figures that are available to the masses. my own particular reasons for buying would not not apply to others. But just as i do not call you - or others - a liar for the facts you/they state on this site, i feel others should show the same respect to me. i only know of my local market and just as people - with all due respect - who post from say Leeds or Liverpool for example may know their area, they do not know of the specific dynamics that make up my area. Not all places in UK are having a direct link to Paris built on their doorstep. so when people call me a fool/idiot/or liar i think you can see why i got frustrated.................Because my point has always been that the rate/scale/timing of price reductions may differ. certain areas of UK may crash badly, but in central London zone 1, in the area i reside, there are other contributory factors. Plus i got a deal i am happy with on the property i purchased ........But as stated b4 anything can and does happen in London......so my thoughts can not be set in stone.

Think you are right BHTFY. London (your area and a couple of others in particular) seems to be a specialised area. Plenty of properties and assessments using actual square footage takes place. The rentals paid for houses are often with corporate and particularly overseas cash and is perhaps a better reflection of the financial markets profitability and world wealth than a localised domestic situation. I would love to own prime central London property (in pretty well any market) and respect from me for playing a high stakes game and winning.

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Think you are right BHTFY. London (your area and a couple of others in particular) seems to be a specialised area. Plenty of properties and assessments using actual square footage takes place. The rentals paid for houses are often with corporate and particularly overseas cash and is perhaps a better reflection of the financial markets profitability and world wealth than a localised domestic situation. I would love to own prime central London property (in pretty well any market) and respect from me for playing a high stakes game and winning.

thanks for your post. the area is hugely propped up with overseas bankers/investors, so if plug is pulled on London as chosen financial centre, or we have another major terrorist attack..........?

well anything could happen here?? (as it can anywhere...) .........

so i never get too smug!!

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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fair play,

but do you live in Devon?

I do. I hold a senior role as a technical consultant on what is a great wage for the area.

a one bed flat is still 6 times my salary..

Not the average house.

the smallest of flat.

We are surrounded by empty houses..

I have been offered salaries by professional people that I know in London that would trebble my salary here.

but house prices are less then 50% more in London.

House price inflation in london as been high.

Here it has been comical.

but with 50% of the developments in the posh docklands area stood empty and with twice as many on their way up.

With sipps now gone and BTL sensibly gone. (50% of the new builds in docklands that are empty are waiting to be rented.. ouch to that rather large mortgage..)

London only needed a certain amount of new builds.. as did devon, as did anyhwere..

and if you look at the population levels in the country.

birth rates are very low, migration is high.. but add them together and they are less then those poor souls that shuffle of each year..

Population is shrinking.

Been hearing it for years.. I always said it would take a while.. but it will be lower when I buy then the amount I would still owe if I bought now.

As for the abuse, it is a shame.

but I also have got emotional about it

Well, here's another facility - the death rate is greater than net migration.

We have millions of immigrants which have pushed the overall population, which was stable for 3 decades up by 7% thats on figures 4 years old! And are still no limits.

The only way you will ever get a home - i.e. standard of living for your wage - is to unionise!!

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Now you all come here with your nationwide, your halifax, your rightmove figures.

Now please think for a moment

I have a small problem with the view that the vested interest figures can not be trusted.

If you look at the data provided from the Nationwide they will tell you that house prices have very nearly doubled from Q3 of 2000 to Q3 of 2005. (An increase of approx 96%)

I don't think anybody on this site would disagree with this finding, if it were not the case then house prices would still be at the levels of long term affordabilty and this site would have no need to exist.

Therefore why is so much time spent discrediting the VI data?

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I have a small problem with the view that the vested interest figures can not be trusted.

If you look at the data provided from the Nationwide they will tell you that house prices have very nearly doubled from Q3 of 2000 to Q3 of 2005. (An increase of approx 96%)

I don't think anybody on this site would disagree with this finding, if it were not the case then house prices would still be at the levels of long term affordabilty and this site would have no need to exist.

Therefore why is so much time spent discrediting the VI data?

the vested intrests have no reason to mask the good news, its the bad news they do mask.Of course they show rises as you say.

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the vested intrests have no reason to mask the good news, its the bad news they do mask.Of course they show rises as you say.

That's a fair point and we will have to wait and see what happens if prices do start falling.

Possibly the reason that the VI data attracts so many adverse comments is that a few people here have jumped the gun a bit and think that house prices have already started falling. That probably makes it quite frustrating when your opinions are contradicted by the data.

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Hey chaps! Is this the HPC forum?

I would be forgiven for thinking it was the Spelling, Grammar and Punctuation forum.

With a view to ending pointless pedantry, I propose that everyone now adopt the txt mssg style of

writing to ensure it is the message and not the method of delivery which is important.

for example "hous prcs wil crsh. shepl wl lse evrythng while Bnks laff. Dscus!"

:ph34r:

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I have a small problem with the view that the vested interest figures can not be trusted.

If you look at the data provided from the Nationwide they will tell you that house prices have very nearly doubled from Q3 of 2000 to Q3 of 2005. (An increase of approx 96%)

I don't think anybody on this site would disagree with this finding, if it were not the case then house prices would still be at the levels of long term affordabilty and this site would have no need to exist.

Therefore why is so much time spent discrediting the VI data?

To put it in a simple sentence..... would you believe a total stranger if they said.

"I know what your doing next week" and then walked off?

You would do one of 2 things - you would either ignore them.

Or you would say, "how do you know, tell me?".

If they said, "well I just know", you would probably laugh and move on!

Where I am going here, you may wonder?????

The reason why all the INDICES are not to be taken seriously is the that they

DO NOT SHOW THEIR METHODOLOGY.

DO NOT SHARE THEIR DATA

DO NOT RELEASE WHERE THE DATA DERIVES.

and they all seem to have a disclaimer.

The Nationwide Monthly House Price Index is prepared from information which we believe is collated with care, but no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or discontinue the whole or any part of the Index at any time, for regulatory or other reasons. Persons seeking to place reliance on the Index for their own or third party commercial purposes do so entirely at their own risk. All changes are nominal and do not allow for inflation.

Can choose whatever data they want - if its looking bad - they can juggle about a bit

Rightmove’s House Price Index is compiled from the asking prices of properties coming

onto the market via Rightmove.co.uk’s 8,061 estate agency branches. It is produced from

factual data of actual prices of actual properties, rather than being a survey of opinions as

with some other indexes. The sample includes up to 150,000 homes each month*

representing over half the market, the largest and most up-to-date monthly sample of any

house price indicator in the UK. 95% of properties are sold via an agent, while only 75%

are purchased with a mortgage.

The Index differs from other house price indicators, in that it reflects current and future

trends in the market rather than being based on ‘historical’ data* as with the lenders’ and

Land Registry’s figures. Having a large sample size and being very up-to-date, the

Rightmove Index has established itself as a reliable indicator of current and future trends of

the housing market.

* Choose the top £150,000 highest priced sellers and the average price is sky high. Choose the top 150,000 lowest sales and the average price is lower.

** current and future trends and not based on real data?? They can see into the future WOW!!!!!

The only Indice that can be close to the truth is Hometrack.

The Hometrack Index is a unique housing database that details postcode level including property prices and trends, allowing property scoring. The index is compiled from over 7,500 reports up to 3,500 Hometrack approved agents. At inception, a unique compiled that included full profiles of every agency in England shopping exercise of over 12,000 agencies. The top 30% were housing database; these agents are continually monitored.

The problem with this one is the data is supplied by EA's who are not a regulated trade. They can say anything they want.

So that leaves Land Registry. It's accurate but it is not indicative of the current market because of the lag. If this was more up-to-date then this is the only one to trust.

ANSWER YOUR QUESTION DEMO?

Edited by teddyboy

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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