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Max Keiser Talking About The Bond Market And London Housing

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Said London is now majority Labour because of the worsening dire housing situation....resentful working people, paying high rents unable to buy now or in the near future in London out number the historic home owners and the got in by the skin of their teeth buyers..... a widening gap two tier society does not make for healthy cohesive communities. ;)

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Said London is now majority Labour because of the worsening dire housing situation....resentful working people, paying high rents unable to buy now or in the near future in London out number the historic home owners and the got in by the skin of their teeth buyers..... a widening gap two tier society does not make for healthy cohesive communities. ;)

Peter Oborne (ex Telegraph columnist) also noted the swing to Labour in London due to house prices on his twitter feed.

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Said London is now majority Labour because of the worsening dire housing situation....resentful working people, paying high rents unable to buy now or in the near future in London out number the historic home owners and the got in by the skin of their teeth buyers..... a widening gap two tier society does not make for healthy cohesive communities. ;)

Yes. The election results in London may be a reflection in part that the owner/renter demographic has tipped the 50 % point in the capital. The rest of the UK has yet to catch up but I have noticed housing valuations on the south coast are now moving into areas where locals will not be able to dream of buying even on extravagant multiples of local wages. It's a classic bubble and I suspect the very first rise in interest rates will burst it. I have long been of the opinion that the smart money got out of London property a couple of years ago.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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Problem is that Keiser's track record isn't exactly good recently. Will take a look at the interview, but I wish Keiser would stop ranting, he doesn't do his message any favours.

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Amazing. People STILL assume there will be sustained rate rises. Purleeese.

It's not nominal interest rates that count but real interest rates. And against very low inflation they can go up stealthily.

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Problem is that Keiser's track record isn't exactly good recently. Will take a look at the interview, but I wish Keiser would stop ranting, he doesn't do his message any favours.

Perhaps that's the idea and his function is to act as a 'safety valve' for dissent?

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Problem is that Keiser's track record isn't exactly good recently. Will take a look at the interview, but I wish Keiser would stop ranting, he doesn't do his message any favours.

There is no perfect ideal, person or politician......Max does speak many truths, but sometimes goes too far and is somewhat one sided in many areas, a kind of Farage or Brand style personality very passionate, likes the sound of his own voice, always thinks he is right, but also says many things others would prefer are not said.....it is important that we all hear others points of view, what is really going on above and below the parapet so that we may understand what is out there and come to some understanding about what is right and wrong......no decisions can be made without information from all different sources, no one person holds all the information/knowledge. ;)

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Problem is that Keiser's track record isn't exactly good recently. Will take a look at the interview, but I wish Keiser would stop ranting, he doesn't do his message any favours.

When was his record good? Pray tell.

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It's not nominal interest rates that count but real interest rates. And against very low inflation they can go up stealthily.

Yes and higher real rates are even MORE deflationary pushing down nominals. Rinse. Repeat.

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It's not nominal interest rates that count but real interest rates. And against very low inflation they can go up stealthily.

This is a very good point oft missed. Current low cpi at lower bound is a real tightening, hence current fall in growth.

But I suspect inflation will pick up H2. Problem for Osborne is that his "cuts" agenda require him to front load them. If he persists with them whilst CPI is on the floor and before monetary policy is off the floor he's going to hammer growth again just like he did in 2010/11/12.

Perhaps that's what he will do anyway - but one might imagine he has learned his lesson.

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But I suspect inflation will pick up H2. Problem for Osborne is that his "cuts" agenda require him to front load them. If he persists with them whilst CPI is on the floor and before monetary policy is off the floor he's going to hammer growth again just like he did in 2010/11/12.

Yes I suspect we'll discover in H2 that most not all the drop in cost of oil etc was passed through but this will only be obvious in H2. Still the oil price drop means that (most) drivers have a little more cash left in their pockets every month. The Low inflation in H1 will mostly be imported not domestic in ultimate origin.

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But I suspect inflation will pick up H2.

Inflation expressed as CPI is a an economic joke or charlatanism if you want to be more medical. Course it has correlation with the inflation proper known as "money supply", but that one is to watch rather than the CPI. Still, great to see you believe an individual (Osborne) can decree economic outcomes at this stage of the credit bubble.. he sure can pop it quicker. But more likely is that the growth (or more appropriate - the lack of it) will take care of Cons and Osborne rather than the other way around. Mr Druggie served you a handsome example the other week how Mr Market takes out for a ride any arrogant specie.

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If the Government goes for fiscal tightening as they've claimed it's fairly unlikely we'll see any monetary tightening. Judging from past experience it's more probable we'll get potential rate hikes pushed further back and/or monetary loosening offsetting fiscal effects on growth. If growth rates fall it's also pretty unlikely market rates will rise.

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If the Government goes for fiscal tightening as they've claimed it's fairly unlikely we'll see any monetary tightening. Judging from past experience it's more probable we'll get potential rate hikes pushed further back and/or monetary loosening offsetting fiscal effects on growth. If growth rates fall it's also pretty unlikely market rates will rise.

I am not expecting interest rate rises in the next 12 months but I am bloody certain that there will be some before those 40 year Microsoft and Oracle bonds expire. Indeed, I can't see those near negative yield 5-10 year Bunds or Swissies of a few months ago looking very clever in a few years time. To be honest I dont think UK government fiscal policy will have the slightest influence on UK interest market rates except in the short term. When the Fed finally decides to tighten British politiicians and bankers will have 6 moths grace at the most.

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I am not expecting interest rate rises in the next 12 months but I am bloody certain that there will be some before those 40 year Microsoft and Oracle bonds expire. Indeed, I can't see those near negative yield 5-10 year Bunds or Swissies of a few months ago looking very clever in a few years time. To be honest I dont think UK government fiscal policy will have the slightest influence on UK interest market rates except in the short term. When the Fed finally decides to tighten British politiicians and bankers will have 6 moths grace at the most.

Indeed.

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I am not expecting interest rate rises in the next 12 months but I am bloody certain that there will be some before those 40 year Microsoft and Oracle bonds expire. Indeed, I can't see those near negative yield 5-10 year Bunds or Swissies of a few months ago looking very clever in a few years time. To be honest I dont think UK government fiscal policy will have the slightest influence on UK interest market rates except in the short term. When the Fed finally decides to tighten British politiicians and bankers will have 6 moths grace at the most.

Possibly. It will be quite difficult to raise bankrate into any contractionary Treasury policy whatever the US does, although I'm not convinced there will be much fiscal tightening here after last time. I'm still long-term bullish on bonds (low nominal yields) as can't see any particular reason for rates to materially rise. When the economy next implodes I doubt it will due to rate hikes.

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Inflation expressed as CPI is a an economic joke or charlatanism if you want to be more medical. Course it has correlation with the inflation proper known as "money supply", but that one is to watch rather than the CPI. Still, great to see you believe an individual (Osborne) can decree economic outcomes at this stage of the credit bubble.. he sure can pop it quicker. But more likely is that the growth (or more appropriate - the lack of it) will take care of Cons and Osborne rather than the other way around. Mr Druggie served you a handsome example the other week how Mr Market takes out for a ride any arrogant specie.

? I don't speak Meerkat. Sorry.

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? I don't speak Meerkat. Sorry.

Yep, that's an "argument". I would expect something of that sort if anyone publicly and properly confronted any of the establishment people - all I wanted to say was that no leader is more powerful than the market. As that paraphrasing of a Greek saying goes - the mills of the market grind slowly but they grind exceedingly fine. With the marginal productivity of each additional debt unit being close to 0, I am not sure how do you decree growth before there is liquidation of malinvestment which will inevitably result in a bust and contraction of economic activity. You could put God in charge and he won't pull it off, hence the discussion of any measures/personalities is superfluous. I hope this makes more than Meerkat sense?

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Indeed.

Indeed he says. :lol:

The West will not raise rates - sustainably - for 'ever'. #turningjapanese init.

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Yep, that's an "argument". I would expect something of that sort if anyone publicly and properly confronted any of the establishment people - all I wanted to say was that no leader is more powerful than the market. As that paraphrasing of a Greek saying goes - the mills of the market grind slowly but they grind exceedingly fine. With the marginal productivity of each additional debt unit being close to 0, I am not sure how do you decree growth before there is liquidation of malinvestment which will inevitably result in a bust and contraction of economic activity. You could put God in charge and he won't pull it off, hence the discussion of any measures/personalities is superfluous. I hope this makes more than Meerkat sense?

Central banks are the market. So no, sorry.

If you'd said something about currency moves then I might have some sympathy. Gov Bonds? not so much.

Edited by R K

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