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Executive Sadman

It Was The House Prices Wot Won It

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So says Market Oracles Nadeem Wayalat...

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of the 'fixed' May 2015 general election, the implications of 10% per annum house price inflation for another 18 months, that builds on the housing bull market of the previous 12 months and on the embryonic bull market of 2012 are that probability strongly favours an outright Conservative election victory.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50608.html

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So says Market Oracles Nadeem Wayalat...

UK General Election Forecast 2015

In terms of the 'fixed' May 2015 general election, the implications of 10% per annum house price inflation for another 18 months, that builds on the housing bull market of the previous 12 months and on the embryonic bull market of 2012 are that probability strongly favours an outright Conservative election victory.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article50608.html

On May 1, 2015 Wataloon forecast a second coaliton govt with 296 Tory seats + 30 Lib Dem vs 262 Labour and 35 SNP.

No more accurate than anybody else.

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On May 1, 2015 Wataloon forecast a second coaliton govt with 296 Tory seats + 30 Lib Dem vs 262 Labour and 35 SNP.

No more accurate than anybody else.

I think its hard to apply polling (which is essentially proportional representation) to a FPTP system. Most thought UKIP would get 5 or 6 seats with 12-13% of the vote. They were bang on with the 12-13% of votes, dead wrong with the seats...UKIP picked up more northern votes than was anticipated and less southern.

lab tory vote share wasnt that out either, but tories benefitted more from the lib dem implosion.

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I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the effect of house prices. I saw the vote percentages for the south east. Tories 40%, Labour 20%, Ukip (cant really remember, but around) 17 %.

Presumably in the North, Labour had a lead. I think there is a connection.

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I'm surprised more people aren't talking about the effect of house prices. I saw the vote percentages for the south east. Tories 40%, Labour 20%, Ukip (cant really remember, but around) 17 %.

Presumably in the North, Labour had a lead. I think there is a connection.

I'm surprised Osborne is not in jail for what he has done.

All these people, vested interest no doubt, who applaud the lunacy and lies of the last two years never ask, where is the money coming from and what effect this magic money is having on real wealth creation.

When workers get no rewards for their efforts you might as well shut down the factory.

All we have is greed and speculation right now, it's never been sustainable in the past and it sure as hell isn't now.

Everyone was saying early 2007 how prices were going to the moon, no one mentioned it would be off the backs of savers and workers money being destroyed, our children's futures and a government propping up what, for me, it's just a massive pyramid scam.

The forthcoming correction is going to be horrible.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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On May 1, 2015 Wataloon forecast a second coaliton govt with 296 Tory seats + 30 Lib Dem vs 262 Labour and 35 SNP.

No more accurate than anybody else.

So he was Wayoutalot ;)

Edited by billybong

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....When workers get no rewards for their efforts you might as well shut down the factory.....

...Gordo's tax credits defuses any aspiration for growth in wages ....and the financial scaffolding put in place to keep HPI is to protect lenders from going bust from the last Gordo bust....if house prices go down ..the borrowers and then many lenders will be under water....it's a ball game ..... :rolleyes:

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I'm surprised Osborne is not in jail for what he has done.

All these people, vested interest no doubt, who applaud the lunacy and lies of the last two years never ask, where is the money coming from and what effect this magic money is having on real wealth creation.

When workers get no rewards for their efforts you might as well shut down the factory.

All we have is greed and speculation right now, it's never been sustainable in the past and it sure as hell isn't now.

Everyone was saying early 2007 how prices were going to the moon, no one mentioned it would be off the backs of savers and workers money being destroyed, our children's futures and a government propping up what, for me, it's just a massive pyramid scam.

The forthcoming correction is going to be horrible.

:lol:

Horrible for who?

You prefer to maintain the values of those baby-boomer £650,000 ($1million+) houses in Northamptonshire instead, and sacrifice your life and that of other future generations to prevent hpc?

Bring it (HPC) on.

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The forthcoming correction is going to be horrible.

Or in an Orwellian double talk world "beautiful". Edited by Blod

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As the Tory party see HPI as a way of winning an election, can anyone see them letting some air out of the bubble over the next few years only for them to reinflate the bubble in 2018 in time for 2020.

Not saying it's feasible for them to have such control over the property market, but as they've managed to control it in the last 5 years they surely have the arrogance to believe it is.

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How come most of London voted labour ?

Homeownership in London is below 50% of households and unemployment and welfare dependency are both higher than the national average. These facts are usually left out of the "London is a global success story" narrative.

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Homeownership in London is below 50% of households and unemployment and welfare dependency are both higher than the national average. These facts are usually left out of the "London is a global success story" narrative.

So really, the housing bubble made people vote against the tories.

The reason the tories won is millipede and balls.

it's that simple.

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How come most of London voted labour ?

Cos the majority of them are renting shitty, cramped, poorly maintained properties with insecure tenancies at horrendous prices?

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So really, the housing bubble made people vote against the tories.

The reason the tories won is millipede and balls.

it's that simple.

The Tory party were offering more socialism to people in social housing than the Labour by giving them their rented house at a huge discount, could well have been enough to enable them to keep the swing seats.

As for Millipede and Balls i can give you the equally incompetent and disliked Gidiot and Top Table. But the English press pretty much all back the Tory party and played a good hand at scare stories.

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So really, the housing bubble made people vote against the tories.

The reason the tories won is millipede and balls.

it's that simple.

In London I'm absolutely sure house prices worked against the Tories. Labour made a net gain of 7 seats and the Conservatives made a net loss of 1. However these are quite small moves and not representative of the national picture.

I'm not sure it's possible to come up with a simple one line explanation of the GE2015 result. Lots of things going on: uncharismatic Labour leader and very weak offer to have-nots inspiring no enthusiasm anywhere, Lib Dem suicide by signing up for tuition fees within weeks of 2010 election handing lots of LD-Con marginals to Tories, Labour suicide in Scotland by campaigning with Tories in independence referendum costing them 40 seats, Tories successfully scaring their wavering voters in Southern England with tales of an alien Labour-SNP coalition at Westminster etc.

Edited by Dorkins

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So really, the housing bubble made people vote against the tories.

The reason the tories won is millipede and balls.

it's that simple.

I think the primary reason is boomers and pensioners bought off with increased house prices and triple lock benefits. Plus all the other home owners are pretty thankful that they can still afford their mortgage payments and are not in negative equity.

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Homeownership in London is below 50% of households and unemployment and welfare dependency are both higher than the national average. These facts are usually left out of the "London is a global success story" narrative.

Following some Twitter conversations, and there was some evidence that the swing to Labour in London was down to youngsters wanting to bring down house prices.

Edited by RentierParadisio

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I think the primary reason is boomers and pensioners bought off with increased house prices and triple lock benefits. Plus all the other home owners are pretty thankful that they can still afford their mortgage payments and are not in negative equity.

Im sure thats whay the old votes stuck with the tories....my father in law, retired for years now, sitting on a fortune thinks the economy is booming and everyone is doing well.

He applauds his london based financial sector son for dong so well.

I hate to say it but a rude awakening is needced for 30% of the country.

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Following some Twitter conversations, and there was some evidence that the swing to Labour in London was down to youngsters wanting to bring down house prices.

That and Labour being the only major party to give even the slightest nod to reforming ASTs. Private renting will soon be the biggest form of tenure in London (where owner occupier is split into owned outright and owned with a mortgage):

london%20tenure_zpsufhlkrng.png

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Housing%20in%20London%202014%20-%20Final_1_0.pdf

Funny how homeownership in London went into a nosedive after 1997 when London house prices started their 500% increase. Must be all those iPads.

Edited by Dorkins

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That and Labour being the only major party to give even the slightest nod to reforming ASTs. Private renting will soon be the biggest form of tenure in London (where owner occupier is split into owned outright and owned with a mortgage):

london%20tenure_zpsufhlkrng.png

https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/Housing%20in%20London%202014%20-%20Final_1_0.pdf

Funny how homeownership in London went into a nosedive after 1997 when London house prices started their 500% increase. Must be all those iPads.

But this could all change with the social housing give away that is about to happen.

Now i know many won't be able to afford the repayments on a 200K mortgage should they get the place half price, but you can be 100% certain the financier friends of the LABCON party will conjure up something for them.

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But this could all change with the social housing give away that is about to happen.

Now i know many won't be able to afford the repayments on a 200K mortgage should they get the place half price, but you can be 100% certain the financier friends of the LABCON party will conjure up something for them.

I guess we'll see. The people who are dependent on the state for housing in London are extremely dependent, some might say institutionalised. I'm not sure how many of them will really want to jump into the shark-infested waters of private housing.

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That "Housing in London 2014" link/pdf and dated April 2014.

All the charts seem to stop at 2011.

As if they have something to hide from 2011 upto 2014.

Edited by billybong

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People voted Tory because millions are now utterly dependent on them directly for money. £100Bn a year deficit year after year or TRUE austerity? Osborne's too populist to do anything responsible.

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People voted Tory because millions are now utterly dependent on them directly for money. £100Bn a year deficit year after year or TRUE austerity? Osborne's too populist to do anything responsible.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought an economy can only grow in 4 ways:

Government spending

Personal spending

Business spending

Positive balance of trade

If government borrowing were to fall by £100b than we'd either have to increase business, personal or trade earnings by £100b to compensate.

That doesn't seem feasible to me.

So the result of the government cuts would be a massive reduction in the living standards for millions, in fact for everyone due to the multiplier effect/velocity of the spending.

We are a sovereign nation so servicing debt isn't a problem, the only risk to this high spending is high inflation or a currency collapse but neither looks likely.

I can never understand why people worry so much about the deficit and want millions impoverished to fix the non-issue.

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