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House price inflation: type of buyer

The UK house price inflation rate for first time buyers remained at 5.0 per cent between September and October. This was due to similar small changes in prices between September and October in the properties bought by first time buyers, both this year and last year.

The inflation rate for former owner occupiers fell from 2.7 per cent in September to 1.2 per cent in October. This was due to a small fall of 0.4 per cent in prices between September and October in the properties bought by former owner occupiers, compared with a rise of 1.1 per cent over the same period last year.

The average price paid by first time buyers across the whole of the UK was £152,331 in October, while the average price paid by former owner occupiers was £201,374.

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House price inflation: type of buyer

The UK house price inflation rate for first time buyers remained at 5.0 per cent between September and October. This was due to similar small changes in prices between September and October in the properties bought by first time buyers, both this year and last year.

The inflation rate for former owner occupiers fell from 2.7 per cent in September to 1.2 per cent in October. This was due to a small fall of 0.4 per cent in prices between September and October in the properties bought by former owner occupiers, compared with a rise of 1.1 per cent over the same period last year.

The average price paid by first time buyers across the whole of the UK was £152,331 in October, while the average price paid by former owner occupiers was £201,374.

so With £152,331 as the average First time buyer.

The average salary being £23,000 ish

that is 6.6 times the average salary for FTB's... nice..

Can anyone else think... Interest only lie to buy?

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Who said monthly drops of 1% weren't possible? :)

The annual rate of house price growth was 2.2% in October, down from 3.3% in September, in line with other commercial surveys, it found.

Even Krusty Allcrap could work out thats a fall of 1.1%

Happy Days are here again........

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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Who said monthly drops of 1% weren't possible? :)

Even Krusty Allcrap could work out thats a fall of 1.1%

Happy Days are here again........

TB

They probably said falls of 1% in prices were impossible, not falls of 1% in the inflation of prices!

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They probably said falls of 1% in prices were impossible, not falls of 1% in the inflation of prices!

Rightmove have reported a 5% monthly fall for the North

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They probably said falls of 1% in prices were impossible, not falls of 1% in the inflation of prices!

Dont quite get your gist?

If house prices are reported on the BBC as "House Prices rose to £xxxxxx thats up 2% from last month"

Then the simple fact is, the houses (on average) have risen. THAT IS WHAT IS REPORTED.

I think its all ****** - ifs its not selling at £150,000 then put it up to £155.000 and it will sell? No! But when someone offers £145,000 they think they are £10,000 better off.

This has been happening for months and months!

What I am saying is - if it was 3.3% last month and now its 2.2% - A FALL IS A FALL.

Is that reported - YES!!! At last its being reported - I bet it dont make the 6 o'clock news!

If you report to people that prices are 1% down YoY or 1% from last month then the common sheeple we live with would not tell the difference. They just see HP rise and HP falls.

TB

Edited by teddyboy

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so With £152,331 as the average First time buyer.

The average salary being £23,000 ish

that is 6.6 times the average salary for FTB's... nice..

Can anyone else think... Interest only lie to buy?

Nope, just because the average price of a FTB house is £152k and the average salary is £23k it does not mean the average FBT has a 6.6x mortgage! What it means is that the average FTB is earning more like £40k and many people earning less just aren't buying.

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The thing is that now the "First Time Buyer" is probably a 34 yo earning £40k. FTBs on the average £23,000 salary just can't buy and so have dropped out of the figures.

FTB are very rarely just one person. It just isnt possible on your own these days.

Edited by zag2me

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Dont quite get your gist?

If house prices are reported on the BBC as "House Prices rose to £xxxxxx thats up 2% from last month"

Then the simple fact is, the houses (on average) have risen. THAT IS WHAT IS REPORTED.

I think its all ****** - ifs its not selling at £150,000 then put it up to £155.000 and it will sell? No! But when someone offers £145,000 they think they are £10,000 better off.

This has been happening for months and months!

What I am saying is - if it was 3.3% last month and now its 2.2% - A FALL IS A FALL.

Is that reported - YES!!! At last its being reported - I bet it dont make the 6 o'clock news!

If you report to people that prices are 1% down YoY or 1% from last month then the common sheeple we live with would not tell the difference. They just see HP rise and HP falls.

TB

My point was that prices aren't down 1% in a month - the rate of annual increasse is down 1%

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Surely you don't mean 'rate' of increase - wouldn't that refer in some way to HOW FAST the increase happened which would be like ACCELERATION which is wierd.

Surelyyou mean just INCREASE in prices is down to 2.2% or whatever - therefore isn't that actually a real DROP of 1%?

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I don't think everyone included in the FTB figures is actually buying for the first time. For instance I'm buying a property tomorrow but (having STR'd in July) for cash and no property to sell - I, like lots of others in similar circumstances, may well appear in the figures as an FTB even though I have bought many times before!

Personally, I'd knock 15 to 20% off that average FTB figure.

Edited by ILikeBigBoobs

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Surely you don't mean 'rate' of increase - wouldn't that refer in some way to HOW FAST the increase happened which would be like ACCELERATION which is wierd.

Surelyyou mean just INCREASE in prices is down to 2.2% or whatever - therefore isn't that actually a real DROP of 1%?

The annual rate of growth has fallen. Unfortunately, prices haven't.

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I don't think everyone included in the FTB figures is actually buying for the first time. For instance I'm buying a property tomorrow but for cash and no property to sell - I, like lots of others in similar circumstances, may well appear in the figures as an FTB even though I have bought many times before!

Personally, I'd knock 15 to 20% off that average FTB figure.

Would you like to buy a house for me in cash? :D

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What I am saying is - if it was 3.3% last month and now its 2.2% - A FALL IS A FALL.

If you throw a stone straight up, and in the first second it rises 33 metres while in the next second it rises 22 metres, is it falling?

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If you throw a stone straight up, and in the first second it rises 33 metres while in the next second it rises 22 metres, is it falling?

That would depend upon if the last 3 meters it was still on the way up, or had passed the peak and was on the way down again.

Say it hit an albatros on the way up at 58 meters?

Up 33 in 1st second,

up 25 in first part of second second, then hits object (buffers, albatros, sentiment etc), then drops 3 meters in the remainder of the second.

The numbers make it look as though it is still flying upwards, but it is actually on the way down (and probably gathering pace ;) )

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If you throw a stone straight up, and in the first second it rises 33 metres while in the next second it rises 22 metres, is it falling?

no but what happens to the stone after 4 more seconds ?

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I've now looked at the actual ODPM report and as usual the BBC have painted an overly rosey picture. Take a look at some of the graphs on the report here. It can clearly be seen that the south of England is now experiencing falls. Historically it's the south which has lead the trend in both rises and then falls.

Figure 1 clearly shows a consistent long term average HPI line which will soon go though zero.

Figure 2 clearly shows the figures in England are approaching zero (and are probably there already as this report lags).

Figure 3 shows south of England in trouble.

Edited by Portent

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The one thing that they, and everyone so far here has missed is that if house prices are rising a 2.2% per year and inflation is running at 2.4% per year then house prices are already falling.

So to use Zorn's example: if you throw a pebble up in the air, but the ground is moving upwards at a faster rate the the pebble, it will still hit the ground at some point (or something like that).

Of cause the BBC headline could have read 'House prices falling in real terms'. But we couldn't have that could we?

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The one thing that they, and everyone so far here has missed is that if house prices are rising a 2.2% per year and inflation is running at 2.4% per year then house prices are already falling.

So to use Zorn's example: if you throw a pebble up in the air, but the ground is moving upwards at a faster rate the the pebble, it will still hit the ground at some point (or something like that).

Of cause the BBC headline could have read 'House prices falling in real terms'. But we couldn't have that could we?

I didn't miss it. I already pointed out to my son that price rises of 2.2% when mortgage rates are about 5% means that he made the right decision not to buy last year!

.

So to use Zorn's example: if you throw a pebble up in the air, but the ground is moving upwards at a faster rate the the pebble, it will still hit the ground at some point (or something like that).

Nce analogy!

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With each pillar that has been propping up the market being so dramatically removed, I reckon we could see the whole lot come tumbling down before our very eyes in the not too distant future. As reverse momentum accelerates, I'm sure, given the state of individual finances of the average UK citizen, that we could witness mass panic going the other way which will only serve to bring about greater volumes of properties for sale in due course; and hence, more significant price reductions than would have been otherwise possible.

I agree with the above. The house market is on the verge of a panic. The recent panic buying of petrol following the Hemel Hemptstead explosions shows you what kind of mood the herd is in. The SIPPs disaster is probably causing thousands of cancellations of prospective BTL purchases and with the economy showing signs of a dramatic slowdown in 2006 the conditions for a crash are perfect.

What is left to hold the bubble up? Earnings? Hype? Falling GDP? High Street slump? Affordability?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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