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geranium

Beautiful Ft Article Today

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See page 23 of today's FT (= top of page 3 of the Companies section) - sorry I can't post the article, I'm not a subscriber, maybe someone else can help?

It's the most bearish comment on property I've read in the FT to date.

____________________________________________________________________________

ASTRONOMIC HOUSE PRICE RISES WILL FALL WITH A BUMP (Jim Pickard - Property)

"The sun is shining once again upon the UK residential property market. That is, if you believe the headlines of recent weeks.........

Casual observers could be forgiven for feeling confused by the monthly release of data that are often contradictory and volatile. But property values are about the same in real terms as they were a year ago.......

Why, then, the optimistic headlines? Partly it is to do with cherry-picking. The great thing about numbers is that you can use the ones you like and ignore the others.

So, when Savills hosted a recent press breakfast to put forward its forecasts, it predicted UK prices would fall in real terms over the next two years.

What made the headlines the next day? It was the line that Savills expected 5% growth in London next year.

BLISSFUL IGNORANCE

It is a curious fact that people are often unaware they are in a market slump until they are up to their necks in it. Remember the optimists who continued to buy dotcom stocks after they had halved in value en route to steeper falls?

If you go back through the press coverage of the last big slump it is hugely instructive in understanding the psychology of the time......"

Jim Pickard ..... are you on this forum?

Edited by geranium

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So, serious people who read the FT will read this. But, assuming they have a brain, they will already be bearish on residential property.

The market drivers - the nutcases that are still buying new build 2 bed flats to rent at a loss - well I guess you would need bearish articles in the Mail and Express to catch them.

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So, serious people who read the FT will read this. But, assuming they have a brain, they will already be bearish on residential property.

The market drivers - the nutcases that are still buying new build 2 bed flats to rent at a loss - well I guess you would need bearish articles in the Mail and Express to catch them.

Yes, but the international editions will be picked up by some pretty big investors who, due to their remoteness from the market will not have access to the day to day information flow. This could be the first they get to hear about it, or at least another confirmatory artical. If it causes just one to pull their money then it helps.

Actuall, I think the international investors may have played a bigger role in this than we are currently aware.

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So, serious people who read the FT will read this. But, assuming they have a brain, they will already be bearish on residential property.

The market drivers - the nutcases that are still buying new build 2 bed flats to rent at a loss - well I guess you would need bearish articles in the Mail and Express to catch them.

Read the most bearish article yet on BTL in (of all papers) the London Evening Standard on Friday. Something like "Bottom falls out of Buy To Let" or something. Anyone else see it? I'll try to dig it out.

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So, serious people who read the FT will read this. But, assuming they have a brain, they will already be bearish on residential property.

The market drivers - the nutcases that are still buying new build 2 bed flats to rent at a loss - well I guess you would need bearish articles in the Mail and Express to catch them.

It will start happening. The press loves shock articles and a falling market will be a shock after all the benign VI stuff over the past few months. Also the press reads other press and influence spreads quickly.

There were bearish articles on property about in the summer but I hadn't read any for quite a while. It's interesting that these articles are back and hitting much harder than before.

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It will start happening. The press loves shock articles and a falling market will be a shock after all the benign VI stuff over the past few months. Also the press reads other press and influence spreads quickly.

There were bearish articles on property about in the summer but I hadn't read any for quite a while. It's interesting that these articles are back and hitting much harder than before.

Oh well. We can always rely on the BBC to talk the market up. :rolleyes:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/your_money/4520452.stm

Since October there have been indications that house prices may be starting to pick up again.

Two weeks ago the country's biggest mortgage lender, the Halifax, reported that prices in November were rising at an annual rate of nearly 5% a year.

That may have been due to a revival of activity in the market following the sudden slump that started in the summer of last year.

According to the Bank of England, the number of new mortgages approved but not yet lent, which is widely seen as an indicator of future trends, has reached its highest level for 18 months.

Estate agents have also reported that more people have been enquiring about buying properties.

Five bull-points in a row!!!! It reads more like an advert for a mortgage. :lol:

EDIT: I read the BBC article again and found it more amusing. I'm not angry at this VI guff anymore as now there is plenty of evidence and more balanced reporting around to oppose it. It's amusing because the BBC is starting to look more ridiculous by the day as it continues to pursue this pathetic cause. How long will they keep it up? Reputations are being damaged.

Edited by Flash

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Oh well. We can always rely on the BBC to talk the market up. :rolleyes:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/your_money/4520452.stm

Five bull-points in a row!!!! It reads more like an advert for mortgage. :lol:

EDIT: I read the BBC article again and found it more amusing. I'm not angry at this VI guff anymore as now there is plenty of evidence and more balanced reporting around to oppose it. It's amusing because the BBC is starting to look more ridiculous by the day as it continues to pursue this pathetic cause. How long will they keep it up? Reputations are being damaged.

I agree that everything the Beeb puts out out house prices is laughable positive guff ... but WHY??

Why should the Beeb act as a VI?

I simply don't get it.

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Oh well. We can always rely on the BBC to talk the market up. :rolleyes:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/your_money/4520452.stm

Five bull-points in a row!!!! It reads more like an advert for mortgage. :lol:

EDIT: I read the BBC article again and found it more amusing. I'm not angry at this VI guff anymore as now there is plenty of evidence and more balanced reporting around to oppose it. It's amusing because the BBC is starting to look more ridiculous by the day as it continues to pursue this pathetic cause. How long will they keep it up? Reputations are being damaged.

The problem with journalists and particularly financial journalists is that very few of them are ever brought to book for their appallingly spoonfed views. The continued encouragement to investors to use Equitable Life "because they don't pay commission" and to put their money into investment trusts using zero preference shares long after the industry had realised these 2 were pups are significant examples.

These people (Lorna Bourke and Naomi Caine spring to mind) have no original thought and rely on whoever has taken them for lunch that day for the product "puff" they write masquerading as journalism.

The only way to resist is to store the most appallingly one-sided articles for regurgitation when most embarrassment can be caused. However I do notice that many articles have no byline and that the text often appears to be lifted verbatim from the press release. How lazy is that? Where is their professional pride? Where is the questioning of perceived wisdom? The awkward questioning of vested interests?

A few honourable exceptions - Christopher Fildes and...er that's it.

The Fox

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I agree that everything the Beeb puts out out house prices is laughable positive guff ... but WHY??

Why should the Beeb act as a VI?

I simply don't get it.

Oh round here we just whisper "Licence fee" and "Charter renewal".

:)

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I agree that everything the Beeb puts out out house prices is laughable positive guff ... but WHY??

Why should the Beeb act as a VI?

I simply don't get it.

IMO, there is now much more of a political dimension to house prices, the BBC is now just another arm of NuLabour (all place men).

They know if house prices fall, the economy falls, if the economy falls NuLabour falls, end of!

A strong economy is used to justify most of NuLabour's policies, mass public spending, mass immigration, etc, etc.

If it all goes tits up there will be awkward questions to answer, like, "why am I standing behind 20 Polaks at the JobCentre!?".

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The only way to resist is to store the most appallingly one-sided articles for regurgitation when most embarrassment can be caused.

The Fox

I agree, but the curious thing is that if you show the bulllish headlines and articles still appearing while the last crash was indisputably underway, to current bulls who are bent on buying to let, they are completely unmoved. It is extraordinary but some people cannot seem to relate the past with the present.

I even know some people who were badly burned by the last crash and who are now making exactly the same rash transactions that they did before they lost the lot last time. It seems that personal greed is such a motivating impulse it is capable of shutting out all other judgement.

Like you though, I am building up a store of web and newspaper articles in my scrap book to gleefully expose to all those who still tell me I am mad not to buy and that I am completely nuts to say there's a crash coming. I will derive enormous pleasure from it......so no holding back on "I told you so" in this case.

VP

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I agree, but the curious thing is that if you show the bulllish headlines and articles still appearing while the last crash was indisputably underway, to current bulls who are bent on buying to let, they are completely unmoved. It is extraordinary but some people cannot seem to relate the past with the present.

I even know some people who were badly burned by the last crash and who are now making exactly the same rash transactions that they did before they lost the lot last time. It seems that personal greed is such a motivating impulse it is capable of shutting out all other judgement.

Like you though, I am building up a store of web and newspaper articles in my scrap book to gleefully expose to all those who still tell me I am mad not to buy and that I am completely nuts to say there's a crash coming. I will derive enormous pleasure from it......so no holding back on "I told you so" in this case.

VP

You must try to understand people.

Old truisms are just that to many, thus "You have to speculate to accumulate".

"If at first you don't succeed try, try, try again".

They are, in some ways, laudable maxims.

To you, maybe foolish and irrational behaviour but to them possibly not.

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The problem with journalists and particularly financial journalists is that very few of them are ever brought to book for their appallingly spoonfed views.

Quite. I had lunch with a Telegraph journalist last week (can't name him/her I'm afraid) who said that a few years ago, PR companies used to work very hard to get an article in the press. Not any more. Lazy journalism/editing is rife.

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I agree that everything the Beeb puts out out house prices is laughable positive guff ... but WHY??

Why should the Beeb act as a VI?

I simply don't get it.

Because the BBC is based in London (did some of them move to Manchester recently? - anyway another bubble city) and the producers and editors will be into BTL in a big way. I don't think people realise - half the Telegraph reading wallies in London own a number of BTL properties. They believe it is their God-given right to be landlords while the rest of the world works hard to pay them rent - and that it is also their right to be able to do this with no capital i.e. by remortgaging their home (which is 'worth' a minimum of half a million) and by remortgaging their BTLs as fast as their prices go up so they can buy another one. The BBC used to be mildly left wing. NOT ANY MORE!

If you were an editor or producer at the BBC what would your editorial policy be? If I were in that position and a journo brought me a story about house price falls, doom and gloom in the economy, recession coming etc (and I owed a million or more on BTL mortgages) I'd kick him out into the street or have him sectioned.

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Oh round here we just whisper "Licence fee" and "Charter renewal".

:)

+ Gordon Brown's brother is someone senior at the BBC? I believe someone pointed that out on a thread a few weeks ago.

Edited by geranium

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I agree, but the curious thing is that if you show the bulllish headlines and articles still appearing while the last crash was indisputably underway, to current bulls who are bent on buying to let, they are completely unmoved. It is extraordinary but some people cannot seem to relate the past with the present.

I even know some people who were badly burned by the last crash and who are now making exactly the same rash transactions that they did before they lost the lot last time. It seems that personal greed is such a motivating impulse it is capable of shutting out all other judgement.

Like you though, I am building up a store of web and newspaper articles in my scrap book to gleefully expose to all those who still tell me I am mad not to buy and that I am completely nuts to say there's a crash coming. I will derive enormous pleasure from it......so no holding back on "I told you so" in this case.

VP

My only observation here is that in many cases it is not just 'personal greed' - a lot of it is fear and desperation. The world changes faster every day - very few people have secure jobs - the dream of many was to own half a dozen BTL properties - to provide security and put themselves beyond the fear of redundancy etc. Really when you think about it - it's a powerful proposition. Start your own business with no money - buying assets which always go up in price with other people's money and earn enough from the rent to cover the repayments while the capital value soared. No wonder so many people jumped in.

I blame the w@nky government for this. Greed and insecurity are powerful motivational forces. They (New Labour tossers) should have jumped in and taxed BTL out of existence. By ignoring it they have put the whole economy in jeopardy and we now have a younger generation priced out of home ownership - many of whom will leave this country making us the poorer for it (especially as they won't be here to pay our pensions!)

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Oh no, HPC now in real trouble!

Will we be defined as a terrorist organisation?

Apologies - now edited!

I'm sure someone is keeping an eye on us though. Even peaceful protest can fall the wrong side of the law these days.

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I'm sure someone is keeping an eye on us though. Even peaceful protest can fall the wrong side of the law these days.

Perhaps. But Jim Pickard in the FT today is far more dangerous to Gordon Brown than 100 of us. :D

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The problem with journalists and particularly financial journalists is that very few of them are ever brought to book for their appallingly spoonfed views. The continued encouragement to investors to use Equitable Life "because they don't pay commission" and to put their money into investment trusts using zero preference shares long after the industry had realised these 2 were pups are significant examples.

These people (Lorna Bourke and Naomi Caine spring to mind) have no original thought and rely on whoever has taken them for lunch that day for the product "puff" they write masquerading as journalism.

The only way to resist is to store the most appallingly one-sided articles for regurgitation when most embarrassment can be caused. However I do notice that many articles have no byline and that the text often appears to be lifted verbatim from the press release. How lazy is that? Where is their professional pride? Where is the questioning of perceived wisdom? The awkward questioning of vested interests?

A few honourable exceptions - Christopher Fildes and...er that's it.

The Fox

I worked as a journalist for The Times once and noted that journalists' targets are based on productivity and printability. The search for truth doesn't really get a look in in 99% of journalism since the readers don't particularly prize it. Since most stuff is written in a very short space of time by people with little background in the field, they simply reconstitute what they're given, whether it's press releases, PA feeds or what other journalists are saying.

I don't think it's any more sinister than that: lazy journalism. The FT, I suspect, prints better articles because its readership demands it and therefore its journalists are better-qualified.

Edited by the_duke_of_hazzard

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I agree, but the curious thing is that if you show the bulllish headlines and articles still appearing while the last crash was indisputably underway, to current bulls who are bent on buying to let, they are completely unmoved. It is extraordinary but some people cannot seem to relate the past with the present.

I even know some people who were badly burned by the last crash and who are now making exactly the same rash transactions that they did before they lost the lot last time. It seems that personal greed is such a motivating impulse it is capable of shutting out all other judgement.

Like you though, I am building up a store of web and newspaper articles in my scrap book to gleefully expose to all those who still tell me I am mad not to buy and that I am completely nuts to say there's a crash coming. I will derive enormous pleasure from it......so no holding back on "I told you so" in this case.

VP

Dear VP,

In a few months or so (maybe longer?) could you please email me a .pdf photocopy of those press-clippings?

Luvverly! :D

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Because the BBC is based in London (did some of them move to Manchester recently? - anyway another bubble city) and the producers and editors will be into BTL in a big way. I don't think people realise - half the Telegraph reading wallies in London own a number of BTL properties. They believe it is their God-given right to be landlords while the rest of the world works hard to pay them rent - and that it is also their right to be able to do this with no capital i.e. by remortgaging their home (which is 'worth' a minimum of half a million) and by remortgaging their BTLs as fast as their prices go up so they can buy another one. The BBC used to be mildly left wing. NOT ANY MORE!

Their politics are still the same, it's just that they're hypocrites, like the majority of NuLabourite ministers and MP's who use private health care and send their kids to public school, that even includes lefter than left Dianne Abbot FFS! In that context BTL is just another aberration, well, one needs funds so Timothy can learn about his socialist routes at Charterhouse.

In Massachusetts you see huge suburban homes with a requisite Ford Explorer and Hummer on the drive with the following bumper stickers on the back :-

nobloodforoil.jpg

BBC are wonderful for their predictability. For example :-

GM food = good in the US = automatically bad in the UK

Stem cells = bad in the US = automatically good in the UK

Of course, both are the same genetic tinkering at heart.

We're also meant to take lessons in roads safety from a transport minister with 9 points on his licence.

Edited by BuyingBear

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I agree that everything the Beeb puts out out house prices is laughable positive guff ... but WHY??

Why should the Beeb act as a VI?

I simply don't get it.

Err - don't you remember the Hutton incident when the Gov got rid of BBC staff and replaced them with Alistair's Yes-Men?

The BBC have been infiltrated. A coup has occurred and they are now the voice of NUlab: the cabinet that lied through their back teeth to get us into the war.

If they are prepared to lie to get our SOLDIERS KILLED then they'll happily get their new TV station to lie to keep the Ponzi scheme going. It's small beer in comparison.

I used to work for the bbc and (I heard it said by OTHER PEOPLE) that they are pernicious, fake, lying filth.

Edited by 29929BlackTuesday

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The people I know who are still adding BTL's to their 'portfolio' reckon that because they are 'in it for the long haul' then any immediate softening of prices will be reversed over the next 10 years, when they then expect to be financially independant as a result of their gain.

If they are all thinking this way, then maybe this will prevent the crash.

Based on tis thinking, the only catalyst I can think of to cause panic selling of BTL's is either increase in interest rates, or reduction in rental yeilds. Having said that, it still only accounts for 6% of the market.

(Although what percentage of the housing stock does first time buyer property represent?)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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