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Assume The Opposite

Tory Government: Hpc Or Hpi?

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Thoughts?

HPC The Tories are contra in many ways, Reasons:

1. Strong economy - rate rise soon

2. Housing benefit cut backs - reduces BTL profitability

3. Excellent tax collectors off privately owned businesses and big data coming in

4. HTB was an election tactic not a strategy

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I'm no expert, but it did occur to me this morning, in the depths of despair about 5 more years of HPI (and other nonsense), that actually the wealthy will at some point benefit from a HPC (hoovering up more assets for cheap) and will at some point be positioning for this, if they aren't already.

Everyone knows that booms don't and can't last forever. So the question becomes one of best timing, for the banks and for the wealthy elite. They have been suckering in the last of the greatest fools for a while now it seems, and how many more can there be?

Logically, more and more political and real capital will have to be thrown at keeping HPI going with ever weaker impact. At what point do they decide to allow nature to take it's course? As ever, it's all about engineering winners and losers.

EDIT, to add: So my prediction is, somewhat hopefully, that it will be HPI all the way, until suddenly it isn't.

Edited by LC1

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Housing benefit and tax credit reductions ie the talked about Tory benefit cuts should help towards HPC

Also much needed BTL regulation eg compulsory registration of LLs and BTL taxation in one form or another would also help HPC. Regulation of letting agents and legislation to curb all the dubious fees they charge would help renters and help to slow down the BTL market.

We can live in hope.

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Now that the mansion tax, scrapping of non-dom status and rent caps are off the cards, I expect high-end London to start rising again and pull the rest of the market up with it. The inheritance tax cut won't harm the market either. HPI.

Edited by subspace

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HPC The Tories are contra in many ways, Reasons:

1. Strong economy - rate rise soon

2. Housing benefit cut backs - reduces BTL profitability

3. Excellent tax collectors off privately owned businesses and big data coming in

4. HTB was an election tactic not a strategy

This, hopefully. Additionally Cameron in his victory speech mentioned "building houses" hopefully they'll sufficiently deregulate and encourage house building that this will actually happen now

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This, hopefully. Additionally Cameron in his victory speech mentioned "building houses" hopefully they'll sufficiently deregulate and encourage house building that this will actually happen now

With the government bungs that has seen builder profits soar? On a scale of meaningful increase from the current terrible levels of building starts?

You seem even more deluded than the rest of us. From their record in the last 5 years I can't see this majority Tory government making any meaningful improvements to housing in this country.

I will eat my hat/kilt if we see any meaningful changes in government policy that help the millions of people in this country struggling with housing.

Edited by 25 year mortgage 8itch

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With the government bungs that has seen builder profits soar? On a scale of meaningful increase from the current terrible levels of building starts?

You seem even more deluded than the rest of us. From their record in the last 5 years I can't see this majority Tory government making any meaningful improvements to housing in this country.

I will eat my hat/kilt if we see any meaningful changes in government policy that help the millions of people in this country struggling with housing.

I'm saying it optimistically, put it that way, I agree with your fears, I'm in two minds

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I'm saying it optimistically, put it that way, I agree with your fears, I'm in two minds

I was in 2 minds in 2010. Just in 1 mind now.

I hope I am wrong but I'm expecting no improvements over this parliament. Complete opposite to 2010.

Contra-indicator?

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Of all the permutations that could have been, this new govt has the most to lose from an HPC as there would be no-one else to blame. But that would need the soft landing that's so elusive in asset markets. I'm sure they'd love to see the steady mid-single-digit annual rises that the OBR likes to forecast (e.g. http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/12/05/article-2518884-19DF492800000578-764_634x421.jpg- already proven well wrong for 2014). When has that ever happened for five straight years? Especially on the back of just about every ratio already being at a historic high (in London/SE at least)? All boom and not bust, I suppose.

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HPI

Gidiot knows he's out of a job if there's an HPC, as chances are there would be putsch with Boris coming to the rescue to remove the dreadful people who caused the HPC and save the Conservatives.

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