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Exit Poll Shows Tories On 316, 10 Short Of Majority

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Wow! Really?! Never in a million years thought I read that in the Torygraph.

Delusional. The idea that the LibDems were the only thing stopping the Tories inact a free market utopia is just ridiculous.

The only positive you can gain from reading an article like that is the knowledge that these people are going to be as bitterly disappointed with a Tory majority as the lefties.

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Delusional. The idea that the LibDems were the only thing stopping the Tories inact a free market utopia is just ridiculous.

The only positive you can gain from reading an article like that is the knowledge that these people are going to be as bitterly disappointed with a Tory majority as the lefties.

...the quote:

"Fourth, recognise the property market is a mess. The expense of buying your first home was one of the few popular themes Mr Miliband picked up on. Governments have meddled with the market for three generations, and the result is no one really knows what homes are needed or where. Strip all the rules and subsidies back, and try having a free market instead – with a lot more homes being built in the areas where people want them."

...the Tories know it is a mess ...if they unravel the financial scaffolding put in by Labour a few lenders would be under water ...as many OO's and BTLers with a mortgage (more so for those on interest only mortgages) would be also ....all because of Gordo's boom and bust ..which did bust many of the lenders (some of whom had been knighted by him ) ...you couldn't make it up ..fact is stranger than fiction....if interest rates were to rise and other financial measures to bring down the cost of housing we would see problems in the financial world...the Tories do not want to mess with the unknown to trigger a financial tsunami .and who can blame them ....the dreamer and architect for the generations of loss is now a retired Labour MP on the East Coast of Scotland making out how grand he was ...how delusional.... :rolleyes:

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Read about how exit polls work. They're very different from opinion polls and have much much bigger sample sizes.

Some journo on TV earlier said that the opinion polls done by phone had for some time been putting the Tories at 3 points ahead. But because these were consistently out of line with online polls, they thought they must be wrong and scaled them down.

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...the quote:

...the Tories know it is a mess ...if they unravel the financial scaffolding put in by Labour a few lenders would be under water ...as many OO's and BTLers with a mortgage (more so for those on interest only mortgages) would be also ....all because of Gordo's boom and bust ..which did bust many of the lenders (some of whom had been knighted by him ) ...you couldn't make it up ..fact is stranger than fiction....if interest rates were to rise and other financial measures to bring down the cost of housing we would see problems in the financial world...the Tories do not want to mess with the unknown to trigger a financial tsunami .and who can blame them ....the dreamer and architect for the generations of loss is now a retired Labour MP on the East Coast of Scotland making out how grand he was ...how delusional.... :rolleyes:

The article is just a Telegraph hack having a wet dream now the Tories are back in. The bit about cutting employment rights to boost entrepreneurship is just total delusional doublethink.

The reason entrepreneurs are struggling is because of excessive rent seeking. Talented employees are an asset not a liability. Imagine how much more innovation and risk taking could take place if sky high rents didn't need to be serviced. Ever wondered why Berlin is so successful at attracting start ups?

Like I say, I can be content with the knowledge that these people will be bitterly disappointed with the next 5 years of Tory rentier rule.

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Says it all really, the tories are expected to fuel the bubble and fund the bankers.

Will the idiot English buy into it, I think they will.

We all remain at the mercy of international events...the UK economy isnt big enough to determine its own path when the western banking system fails again.

IF we have calm in the international stage then sure, the Tories can set the agenda here, but that is a big IF IMHO.

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Here's my most interesting result:

http://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/general-election-james-wharton-holds-9210494

CON, Stockton South with v small majority of 300, swings to a 5,000 majority.

Middlesbrough makes Tower Hamlet look a model of probity and transparency.

The politician in town have well overstepped the line of 'enthuiastic' to 'blind, corrupt, belief'

The white + brown flight from the town has gone off the scale in the last 5 years.

People who might be inclined to vote Labour are looking at the monster next door and voting conservative.

Weird reaction from the LAB candidate:

'When it got to 1am, then 2am, and Louise Baldock was still a no-show at Thornaby Pavilion rumours started circulating she had been told by her advisers to stay away.

This only fuelled the expectations of Tory supporters.

When Ms Baldock did finally arrive she refused to talk to the press, claiming she had a bad throat.'

'The polls for the last few weeks which put her up to five points ahead of Wharton were now just a distant memory.'

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Outside of London (and probably in London) the housing boom has been pretty absent - just smaller + smaller number of houses transacting.

There is still 'No money left'. A lot of the economic activity is subbed by tax credits and publicsectorspend.

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Wow! Really?! Never in a million years thought I read that in the Torygraph.

Not what you think it is.

Rates will still be 0.

HTB RTB

More much more building. Won't bring down prices. Just boost profits of developers EAs LAs BTLers.

And destroy our country/side.

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Some journo on TV earlier said that the opinion polls done by phone had for some time been putting the Tories at 3 points ahead. But because these were consistently out of line with online polls, they thought they must be wrong and scaled them down.

I'm guessing online polls will be biased towards online people who are more likely to be urban and/or young, not exclusively but certainly biased, who will also have a greater bias to left wing views as a result of their youth or urban bias. Just a guess.

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I'm guessing online polls will be biased towards online people who are more likely to be urban and/or young, not exclusively but certainly biased, who will also have a greater bias to left wing views as a result of their youth or urban bias. Just a guess.

Or maybe just the projection of wishful thinking by the pollsters?

The BBC appears to be totally unhinged by the result. Statist paternalism seems to have been caught with its pants down.

There's a good article in the Mail:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3073986/David-Miliband-sticks-knife-Ed-s-older-brother-demands-deep-honest-thinking-humiliating-Labour-defeat.html

Very little jurno comment. Basically all the centrists/Blairists pushed out by Brown, coming back to say 'Told you so'.

Oh that one-eye, mental tnuc has some answering to do.

I still think we are getting closer to the day his clunking body will be found, hanged in the closet wearing a dress.

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Just dawned on me who the next Labour leader, or at least leader of the next rising block will be - Simon Danczuk

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Or maybe just the projection of wishful thinking by the pollsters?

The BBC appears to be totally unhinged by the result. Statist paternalism seems to have been caught with its pants down.

There's a good article in the Mail:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3073986/David-Miliband-sticks-knife-Ed-s-older-brother-demands-deep-honest-thinking-humiliating-Labour-defeat.html

Very little jurno comment. Basically all the centrists/Blairists pushed out by Brown, coming back to say 'Told you so'.

Oh that one-eye, mental tnuc has some answering to do.

I still think we are getting closer to the day his clunking body will be found, hanged in the closet wearing a dress.

Basically, it seems the right and left of the Labour party are blaming its failure on it not being left or right enough.

I think they'll probably have to do both. For every Blarite person at the top, you'll need a working class identification figure like Prescott to balance them out (and vice versa).

Edited by StainlessSteelCat

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There was an interesting interview in a N London seat (Hendon) that Labour were hoping to get, but didn't. A Jewish family (not at all obviously Jewish) said they would normally vote Labour but because family was so important to them, and the nominally Jewish Miliband had stabbed his own brother in the back, they could not bring themselves to vote for him.

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I'm wondering what the prospects are now for the Fixed Term Parliament Act, brought in after the coalition was formed in 2010 to give the smaller party the assurance that the larger party would not cut and run at the first opportunity.Will a majority governement will try to give themselves the power to set the General Election date again?. Probably difficult to repeal outright, but it could perhaps be amended, say, to reduce the 2/3rd's majority needed to call an election to a simple majority?

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We all remain at the mercy of international events...the UK economy isnt big enough to determine its own path when the western banking system fails again.

IF we have calm in the international stage then sure, the Tories can set the agenda here, but that is a big IF IMHO.

I agree,but it shows the attitude of the vested interest brigade.

Prices are already at 2007 bubble plus 30 percent, loads of stuff not selling around here again, all the stuff from Sept last year . Me and my wife have given up. the outright tory victory just meant I'm more inclined to leave.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Me and my wife have given up. the outright tory victory just meant I'm more inclined to leave

i was gutted about the result - I am no socialist but I do consider myself to an generally left wing. Basically I felt the election result was basically f*ck the NHS, keep prices high, I am all right jack. Can imagine zero BTL owners went for Labour. Labour weren't a great choice this election, I felt Milliband wasn't the right leader - It seems as if the country wants to lean right, Millband even watered down the left wing policies in his manifesto to suit imo.

Scotland vote is even worse, It was a clear indication that they have had enough, virtually no representation north of the border now for the main 3 parties or should I say 2! :)

I agreed with Will Self last night on Channel 4 news, the election was fought with a fear of anxiety no ideological knowledge/policies/reasoning. Its all about No1 and VI's.

He scoffed at the economy growing - It clearly isn't unless you own 3 BTL's plus. Talking to many small shop owners here in Kent, many are feeling the squeeze - As Will said plenty of frothy coffee jobs but what about 'Real' jobs.

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I'm wondering what the prospects are now for the Fixed Term Parliament Act, brought in after the coalition was formed in 2010 to give the smaller party the assurance that the larger party would not cut and run at the first opportunity.Will a majority governement will try to give themselves the power to set the General Election date again?. Probably difficult to repeal outright, but it could perhaps be amended, say, to reduce the 2/3rd's majority needed to call an election to a simple majority?

Why shouldn't a majority government repeal the Fixed Term Act, always remembering they won't unless they see repeal to be in their interest?

The Fixed Term Act itself wasn't in any manifesto, and IMO it seemed to be far too easy to introduce such a significant constitutional amendment into law.

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I think the squeeze on family finances and fear of the SNP produced this result, a lot of people who have good jobs and good salaries are struggling to pay their bills.

They can't afford to care about the NHS or benefits.

Plus of course Milliband was very unconvincing

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i was gutted about the result - I am no socialist but I do consider myself to an generally left wing. Basically I felt the election result was basically f*ck the NHS, keep prices high, I am all right jack. Can imagine zero BTL owners went for Labour. Labour weren't a great choice this election, I felt Milliband wasn't the right leader - It seems as if the country wants to lean right, Millband even watered down the left wing policies in his manifesto to suit imo.

Scotland vote is even worse, It was a clear indication that they have had enough, virtually no representation north of the border now for the main 3 parties or should I say 2! :)

I agreed with Will Self last night on Channel 4 news, the election was fought with a fear of anxiety no ideological knowledge/policies/reasoning. Its all about No1 and VI's.

He scoffed at the economy growing - It clearly isn't unless you own 3 BTL's plus. Talking to many small shop owners here in Kent, many are feeling the squeeze - As Will said plenty of frothy coffee jobs but what about 'Real' jobs.

I respect your view but I take an almost completely opposite view.

Basically Labour let the country down by favouring its tribe...public sector workers and welfare lifers. Spend, spend spend on its tribe and damn the consequence for the grandkids when there is no money left. And allowing Sturgeon to dictate spending would have made matters worse. She considers doubling Natiional debt austerity for God's sake.

If you want to know who is to blame for allowing the Tories in it is people like me who work and don't claim a damn penny in tax credits etc, just a drone to service Labour's tribe.

Indeed I let Anna Soubry in, in a marginal... Broxtowe. Actually, it is quite well to do but there is a solid block in Beeston of the ultra wealthy Labour urban elite who are doing quite well on University and NHS salaries, which makes it a marginal.

My clients are based in neighbouring Erewash, Amber valley, Derbyshire Central, Derby north and Derbyshire Dales. And except for the the Dales and Central these are really poor areas..every single one went Tory. Even in the Ilkeston Bronx they went Tory (Erewash) because unless you are a benefit lifer or public sector worker you know you are just a drone to service Labour's tribe. Any White van man who works all hours off the Cotmanhay council estate is Tory....now you know why.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I think the squeeze on family finances and fear of the SNP produced this result, a lot of people who have good jobs and good salaries are struggling to pay their bills.

They can't afford to care about the NHS or benefits.

Plus of course Milliband was very unconvincing

Whilst I don't disagree with your points what caused this result is the fundamentally undemocratic system whereby parties receiving millions of votes get handfuls of MPs. The country can never have a real debate when vast numbers of people are effectively silenced. You have to be winning Thatcher/Blair style landslides to have any hope of describing yourself as speaking for the majority of the country and even those two maxed out at around 45% of the popular vote. Cameron's totals are risible by comparison.

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From the earlier Mail link


Mr Johnson who served in Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's Cabinet's and was briefly Mr Miliband's shadow chancellor.

He said Labour could only win if it embraced Mr Blair's broad-based appeal. Mr Johnson said voters 'can no longer relate to them as a party of aspiration.'.

Well of course. It's stating the obvious to say it needs "broad-based appeal "- but the electorate don't want all the other garbage that came with it.

Likely even Miliband thought he had a broad enough base to appeal.

Just offering another Conservative party again isn't enough.

Edited by billybong

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i was gutted about the result - I am no socialist but I do consider myself to an generally left wing. Basically I felt the election result was basically f*ck the NHS, keep prices high, I am all right jack. Can imagine zero BTL owners went for Labour. Labour weren't a great choice this election, I felt Milliband wasn't the right leader - It seems as if the country wants to lean right, Millband even watered down the left wing policies in his manifesto to suit imo.

Scotland vote is even worse, It was a clear indication that they have had enough, virtually no representation north of the border now for the main 3 parties or should I say 2! :)

I agreed with Will Self last night on Channel 4 news, the election was fought with a fear of anxiety no ideological knowledge/policies/reasoning. Its all about No1 and VI's.

He scoffed at the economy growing - It clearly isn't unless you own 3 BTL's plus. Talking to many small shop owners here in Kent, many are feeling the squeeze - As Will said plenty of frothy coffee jobs but what about 'Real' jobs.

It was a fear created by Labour stupidity, their devolution of Scotland cost them the election. The London press with constant headlines about what the SNP would demand of milipede helped influence the English vote.

I thought it would be another hung parliament, but the Tory majority is no real majority it's the marginal seats that decide government nothing else as those marginals probably have enough people to be swayed by fear.

However the Tories now a problem, the economy is clearly still screwed and they are now in control, they must be praying now that any decline in UK GDP can be blamed on foreign events, I'm not convince Cameron has any sort of honeymoon period, his back is to the wall, the Tory leadership campaigns will be starting in earnest, a discussion on Europe is going to be divisive and the economic recovery is an illusion.

Labour can now sit back and watch.

Edited by interestrateripoff

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It was a fear created by Labour stupidity, their devolution of Scotland cost them the election. The London press with constant headlines about what the SNP would demand of milipede helped influence the English vote.

I thought it would be another hung parliament, but the Tory majority is no real majority it's the marginal seats that decide government nothing else as those marginals probably have enough people to be swayed by fear.

However the Tories now a problem, the economy is clearly still screwed and they are now in control, they must be praying now that any decline in UK GDP can be blamed on foreign events, I'm not convince Cameron has any sort of honeymoon period, his back is to the wall, the Tory leadership campaigns will be starting in earnest, a discussion on Europe is going to be divisive and the economic recovery is an illusion.

Labour can now sit back and watch.

Well they have backed themselves into a corner ...12 billion extra on the NHS, a triple lock on tax, VAT and national insurance..totally relying on GDP on speed now.

And Sturgeon calls that austerity....a 6% structural deficit just isn't bloody well indebted enough for her. Or may be she knows exactly what she wanted..bankrupt the English with all this Barnet stuff and then walk away from the debt on independence. And you bloody well wonder why we are scared of this woman.

Edited by crashmonitor

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It was a fear created by Labour stupidity, their devolution of Scotland cost them the election. The London press with constant headlines about what the SNP would demand of milipede helped influence the English vote.

I thought it would be another hung parliament, but the Tory majority is no real majority it's the marginal seats that decide government nothing else as those marginals probably have enough people to be swayed by fear.

However the Tories now a problem, the economy is clearly still screwed and they are now in control, they must be praying now that any decline in UK GDP can be blamed on foreign events, I'm not convince Cameron has any sort of honeymoon period, his back is to the wall, the Tory leadership campaigns will be starting in earnest, a discussion on Europe is going to be divisive and the economic recovery is an illusion.

Labour can now sit back and watch.

I think these are perceptive comments

The media are hyping up the result but actually outside of Scotland there has been very little change in the political landscape

The Tories have added 25 seats and won a small outright majority but most of those have come at the expense of the Liberal Democasts many of whose supporters probably quit rightly feel that Clegg betrayed them when he went into the coalition with Cameron.

Knock out the Lib Dem and the Scottish Nationalist seats and very few seats actually changed hands directly between Labour and Conservatives

I do, however, think Labour have a huge long term problem. For a start those who think that going back to the Balirite third way (that weird mix of capitalism, war, touchy feely PR and some nice focus groups or special sections for women, immigrants and the disabled) seriously think that is going to win back the Scottish Labour vote obviously have not been paying enough attention to what is going on north of the border. Moreover, I am not sure that many of the English voters who did not feel they could vote for Labour are going to have their mind changed by more Black sections in trade unions and reserved seats for women (quite how the latter can be justified in a democracy where women suffer no demographic voting disadvantage is beyond me). Ironically if Miliband had dusted down Michael Foots 1983 Labour party manifesto (European withdrawal and sticking it to the banks in a big way etc) I feel he might actually polled a bit better even though he was a pretty useless and uncharasmatic leader who could not engage with the public.My advice to Labour would be to stop dividing your own supporters on apartheid lines into racial, religious, cultural and gender groups and concentrate on the key economic issues that effect them all which would be wages, health and housing costs

That said I am not sure that the Tories will be entirely relishing the next Parliament. The collapse in the Lib Dem vote saved most of their vulnerable marginals this time and the UKIP vote did not damage them as badly as expected. That said the Euro issue has not gone away and Farage's mob polled nearly 4 million ballots for which our wonderful voting system richly rewarded them with a single miserable seat. How Cameron handles that promise of a European referendum in 2017 now is probably going to define his career. He is a PR man long on promises but the time is fast approaching when he will be expected to deliver, If he gets it wrong he wont be able to collapse the Liberal Democrat vote to save him. The Tories like Labour have that issue of the troublesome Scots that is simply not going to go way now no matter how much Cameron bleats about wanting to unite the nation. The extensive demonising of the SNP in the election campaign by the UK media who often failed to distinguish between the party and the Scottish people in general is probably going to end up backfiring north of the border. The more the SNP can identify Scottishness with their party and the more the media reinforces that process by treating Scots as the enemy or the the other the the more the Scots will be inevitably driven to independence. I fear we could end up with a situation like Irealnd in the early 20th century with all the misery that might entail.

Edited by stormymonday_2011

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  • 395 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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