Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
malco

What The F-..... Talk About A Bubble

Recommended Posts

This is getting way out of hand. Gold has spiked to $540.... There is bound to be a pull-back from here, but what I don't get is, who's pushing this? Asians dropping the dollar? It's going to get crazy if this goes on.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is getting way out of hand. Gold has spiked to $540.... There is bound to be a pull-back from here, but what I don't get is, who's pushing this? Asians dropping the dollar? It's going to get crazy if this goes on.

Internet posters ramping gold perhaps? I suspect a ton of money has moved into gold recently from this website alone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect a few thousand pounds of HPC STR/FTB funds has not done this!

This is the world economy at work. It is a bad sign as it means that Gold is seen as a better or safer bet than most countries economies. However, as Riser's recent graphs showes this is nowhere near previosu spikes in real terms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is getting way out of hand. Gold has spiked to $540.... There is bound to be a pull-back from here, but what I don't get is, who's pushing this? Asians dropping the dollar? It's going to get crazy if this goes on.

This is a man wracked with guilt at making money doing nothing. Your average house owner, prime time btl investor was never troubled in this way.

Chill out dude, enjoy it - I know I am :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

?

gold is not in a bubble at all

infact its been the last of most commodities to rise.Gold has been a poor performer for years now and it aint even back to its previous highs and there has been inflation since then.This was bound to happen.

We in the west somehow dont rate gold as highly as other countries do, and as these countries get wealthier its gold the people prefer to hold not paper, for instance in india gold is what makes up the dowry for marriages.

Gold has much further to go forward before any significant pullback.its still very much worth buying some.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

have we missed the boat again ?

£ at $1.76 aswell !!

Wecan't say that Dr Bubb didn't tell us!

Did think about buying some gold but had no money to buy it with. Still, we're now debt free and feeling great. Sister-in-law has just sold her place as moving, and is very content to wait and see for the time being.

The price of gold just suggests to me that everyone needs to shore up their position.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suspect a few thousand pounds of HPC STR/FTB funds has not done this!

This is the world economy at work. It is a bad sign as it means that Gold is seen as a better or safer bet than most countries economies. However, as Riser's recent graphs showes this is nowhere near previosu spikes in real terms.

I reckon more than a few thousand pounds is at work. Hundreds of people will have filled their boots, often with tens of thousands of pounds.

My main point was that this ramping is no doubt taking place all over the net and the globe - that would be a WALL of money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a man wracked with guilt at making money doing nothing. Your average house owner, prime time btl investor was never troubled in this way.

Chill out dude, enjoy it - I know I am :)

Me too. Risers graph is a good indication of where we are, right at the start, inflation corrected terms. There is a lot of money out there looking for a safe home. Gold is traditionally the safe place. Now with the Internet ordinary folks (like me) can invest in gold much more easily than previously. Gold is also hitting the news headlines. :) Bring it on. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Daily Recknoning said that 56% of new gold demand (that pushes price up) come from ETF fund (don't know where they found that figure)

Seems more and more people are buying

Now I am wondering : should I buy now or hope for a temporary correction under 500 $ (after new year ?) to up-load ? :huh::blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Daily Recknoning said that 56% of new gold demand (that pushes price up) come from ETF fund (don't know where they found that figure)

Seems more and more people are buying

Now I am wondering : should I buy now or hope for a temporary correction under 500 $ (after new year ?) to up-load ? :huh::blink:

A classic dilemma.

If you think it is in an uptrend (no-brainer) and you think it will continue (???) buy now. You always get blips - you need to bet with the trend. Not hope to catch every peak and trough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A classic dilemma.

If you think it is in an uptrend (no-brainer) and you think it will continue (???) buy now. You always get blips - you need to bet with the trend. Not hope to catch every peak and trough.

Damn good advice. I have lost (small amounts) in the past by getting short calls wrong. I have to admit to myself that I am not very good at playing the short game.

I think the price of Gold has a long way to go. There are a lot of people out there who got lucky (although some may also be good) on the BTL game and may now be looking to put their gains into the next 'little earner'. Gold, I hope. :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

Me too. Risers graph is a good indication of where we are, right at the start, inflation corrected terms. There is a lot of money out there looking for a safe home. Gold is traditionally the safe place. Now with the Internet ordinary folks (like me) can invest in gold much more easily than previously. Gold is also hitting the news headlines. :) Bring it on. :D

Here is the inflation adjusted Sterling gold price graph for those who missed it on the other thread. It seems to me demand from Asia is driving the price and a pull back may be good news for those that would prefer a more controlled rise rather then a sharp pull back that will shake everyones confidence. The price of gold usually dips after Christmas, if it doesn't happen this year then maybe this is the main event the gold bugs have been waiting years for.

goldsterlinginflation.gif Inflation adjusted £/oz gold price

post-1619-1134383938_thumb.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the inflation adjusted Sterling gold price graph for those who missed it on the other thread. It seems to me demand from Asia is driving the price and a pull back may be good news for those that would prefer a more controlled rise rather then a sharp pull back that will shake everyones confidence. The price of gold usually dips after Christmas, if it doesn't happen this year then maybe this is the main event the gold bugs have been waiting years for.

goldsterlinginflation.gif Inflation adjusted £/oz gold price

Riser, If you were purchasing gold would you wait until after xmas to see how things pan out rather

than buying now?

Many thanks

Lou

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is the inflation adjusted Sterling gold price graph for those who missed it on the other thread. It seems to me demand from Asia is driving the price and a pull back may be good news for those that would prefer a more controlled rise rather then a sharp pull back that will shake everyones confidence. The price of gold usually dips after Christmas, if it doesn't happen this year then maybe this is the main event the gold bugs have been waiting years for.

goldsterlinginflation.gif Inflation adjusted £/oz gold price

Thanks for putting the graph up again.

As for the pull back, I looked at a graph a few days ago and it indicated that the post Xmas pull back usually started just before Xmas. In any event if it does not happen then I think this is the 'main event' and I bought three weeks ago on the back of that analysis. Could be wrong, but a main event is due IMHO.

I think this still has a long way to go. If you go to BullionVault.com (link on the useful links page of this site) and click on the 'markets button' you will get an idea of demand. On the right of the screen are people trying to Sell gold (You click on the buttons to buy from them). On the left are people trying to buy (You click on the button to Sell to them). There are more people with crash trying to trade than people with gold trying to trade. A sure sign of a high demand low supply market! And we all know what happens in that kind of market. :)

Edited by FTBagain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Riser

Riser, If you were purchasing gold would you wait until after xmas to see how things pan out rather

than buying now?

Many thanks

Lou

I bought some gold in an allocated account back in August, I could buy more now but have decided to wait and buy into any weakness after Christmas, Gold shares may offer higher returns with associated risk.

There are many on this forum with more experience of the gold market, I just got lucky and it seems to be holding, any decision to buy will depend on your own circumstances. If you are planning on holding long term you can reduce the impact of short term spikes and dips by buying small amounts over a period of time rather than in one go although you may pay a premium for smaller quantities. check out:

The Bullion Desk

Kitco Prices and Forum

ADVFN Gold Thread

Baird and Co - Dealers

HPC Gold Tread

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A good way to enter the gold market right now may be through gold mining shares. Lately, they have been lagging the rise in gold price and IMO unless it pulls back sharply, the miners are set to rise in the short term. Historically they are moving at 2-3 times the change in gold price, which just hasn't been happening lately. Ungeared gold has even outperformed some of the gold shares I'm watching over the last week.

Also, look at volumes traded for shares such as ABX, NEM, GG etc. On the back of a gold price rise like this I would expect them to be significantly higher. It's as if the market hasn't quite noticed the recent rise in gold price, or don't believe it to last.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's as if the market hasn't quite noticed the recent rise in gold price, or don't believe it to last.

Indeed, that's one reason why I haven't felt any rush to buy more gold: the market as a whole seems unconvinced that it will stay at this level. Of course if gold does keep going up it wouldn't be the first time that the market was wrong :).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been watching the price of gold in detail for a few weeks now. It seems to me that the current price increase is being driven in the Far East. When I get up in the morning it has jumbed up a few dollars but then stagnates or drops back a little during the day.

This could indicate the the traditional Eastern gold buying spree is stronger than usual, but still localised or that something else is starting to happen.

Could it be that fewer US bonds are being bought in favour of Gold? Anyone got any info?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To a large extent the price of a mining share is going to be based on the price of gold, so if their local currency drops relative to gold the price in that currency should increase. However, last time I looked the price/earnings ratios for most gold mining companies were pretty high: I don't know whether that's improved with the rise in gold price since (and I'm sure it won't matter if the stupid money jumps in).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What if a currency was to weaken further would any gold mining shares listed in that currency jump up proportionally with the declines of the currency?

In principle, yes that would be the case, since the share's value will be based on the value of gold rather than the value of the currency it's listed in.

Simply put if a currency declines relative to gold, the gold price will go up in that currency which would cause the share price in the same currency to increase proportionally.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest Time 2 raise Interest Rates

I reckon more than a few thousand pounds is at work. Hundreds of people will have filled their boots, often with tens of thousands of pounds.

My main point was that this ramping is no doubt taking place all over the net and the globe - that would be a WALL of money.

Smell the Fear, Do you mean like the media and the VI's with house prices ? :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.