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2015 Election Predictions

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Come on then, take yer best guess at the result.

This one's going to be difficult to predict with the polls so close, but the 3-4% inbuilt advantage Labour gets due to the boundaries that weren't corrected this parliament due to the Lib Dem renaging on their promise will have a huge effect.

I reckon Labour wipeout in Scotland, Tories and Labour neck and neck, but we'll end up with a SNP/Labour coalition. UKIP will get no more than 5 seats but will come 3rd in the % of votes cast.

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Tories largest party but well short of a majority even in coalition with LibDems, after a few weeks of the most boring constitutional crisis ever Miliband becomes PM of a Labour minority government which lasts 5 years.

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SNP > 45 seats

UKIP, I'll predict 3 seats (Farage, Carswell, Aker - Reckless will lose)

LibDems, I'm gonna say about 30 seats, slim chance Clegg loses but I doubt it personally

Tory/Labour on about the same, well short of a majority, think Labour will do better than expected, gonna say they are the largest party but only just

Then what will happen is some sort of minority government. I think a gentleman's agreement will be made between the big two to abstain on critical 'keep the government going' issues to avoid further elections and to keep the SNP frozen out of the corridors of power. After an obvious stitch up like that the Scots will be rightfully pissed off - Scottish independence within 10 years.

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The Conservatives to make no serious effort to form a coalition mindful of avoiding a referendum on the eu. Any coalition is likely to be very flimsy at any rate.

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Labour minority govt but with less popular vote than the tories and less seats. Even with SNP votes popular vote is barely ahead of Tories.

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Tories and Labour get roughly the same amount of seats and fall short of a majority

SNP take virtually all of Scotland

Lib Dems obliterated, fewer than half the seats of the 2010 election and Clegg loses his seat

UKIP win 5 seats and win 20% of the vote

Post election chaos, no party or leader can claim legitimacy, another election within 3 months.

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Post election chaos, no party or leader can claim legitimacy, another election within 3 months.

They don't need to 'claim legitimacy'. If they can command a majority of the Commons they can govern. And have every right to do so.

Edited by Errol

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They don't need to 'claim legitimacy'. If they can command a majority of the Commons they can govern. And have every right to do so.

Yes, where did all this 'legitimacy' bollix come from? If you can get the Queen's Speech, Budget and legislative program through the Commons you're legit.

Libdems getting 5 seats will be massive.

:)

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SNP > 45 seats

UKIP, I'll predict 3 seats (Farage, Carswell, Aker - Reckless will lose)

LibDems, I'm gonna say about 30 seats, slim chance Clegg loses but I doubt it personally

Tory/Labour on about the same, well short of a majority, think Labour will do better than expected, gonna say they are the largest party but only just

Then what will happen is some sort of minority government. I think a gentleman's agreement will be made between the big two to abstain on critical 'keep the government going' issues to avoid further elections and to keep the SNP frozen out of the corridors of power. After an obvious stitch up like that the Scots will be rightfully pissed off - Scottish independence within 10 years.

I don't think the SNP will get as much as 45 seats, but enough to tip the balance. Apart from that, pretty much how I see it.

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Guest UK Debt Slave

Should end up with a Labour/SNP arrangement if the polls are correct.

Despite Red Ed saying he wont cut any deals with the SNP thugs

YEAH! RIGHT ED!

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I don't think the SNP will get as much as 45 seats, but enough to tip the balance. Apart from that, pretty much how I see it.

Oooh I do. Reckon they're on for 50 plus, and could very possibly do a clean sweep.

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UKIP win 5 seats and win 20% of the vote

Optimistic. If that happens the powers that be will be absolutely bricking it! 15% would be bad enough. Much depends on how many seats they came second in.

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Optimistic. If that happens the powers that be will be absolutely bricking it! 15% would be bad enough. Much depends on how many seats they came second in.

I think 5 seats & 20% is a little optimistic, but not out of the realms of possibility. Most betting odds have them at 3 - 4 seats, but if the feeling I get from my local seat is correct then I think that is on the low side.

I'll predict the following:

4 seats

19% of the vote

2nd place in 120 seats (mostly Labour) - this will make them think twice about a 2nd election later in the year

Grand coalition of Conservative & Labour to keep SNP/UKIP/Greens out of any sort of power, but it will fail within 6 months.

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Oooh I do. Reckon they're on for 50 plus, and could very possibly do a clean sweep.

Yeah, I'd say 45 is pretty reasonable for them. Though some have said maybe Labour won't collapse quite as much as anticipated, Ladbrokes have the SNP evens at 50 seats.

But I don't think they'll form a coalition with Ed. Even though I'm sure the SNP would love that. I do think there'll be some sort of agreement among the Not-SNP so that doesn't happen - not a grand coalition or anything of the sort, I think it'll be more abstention from supply bills. I think if there's a whiff of grand coalition it will bite them in the azz very hard in 2020, so there'll try and fudge something short of that, while keeping the SNP out of the way.

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Guest UK Debt Slave

If UKIP poll 15% of the vote, then they have done stunningly well for a new party, IMO

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Oooh I do. Reckon they're on for 50 plus, and could very possibly do a clean sweep.

Perhaps I'm trying to protect myself from the disappointment felt on Sept. 19th :)

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If UKIP poll 15% of the vote, then they have done stunningly well for a new party, IMO

After their results in the Euro's, I would be disappointed with that percentage.

I'd just like to say, I don't think UKIP are thugs....

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Despite Red Ed saying he wont cut any deals with the SNP thugs

YEAH! RIGHT ED!

Just because they're impassioned doesn't make them thugs.

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Oooh I do. Reckon they're on for 50 plus, and could very possibly do a clean sweep.

Not so sure. From all you hear, those who don't intend to vote SNP tend to keep very quiet about it.

Not that I will be surprised either way.

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Just because they're impassioned doesn't make them thugs.

Nope, being thugs makes them thugs: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758514/The-Seriously-Nasty-Party-With-one-day-damning-evidence-bullying-intimidation-voters-Scots-nationalists-just-ask-Miliband.html

  • Pro-union voters have endured stone-throwing and been called traitors
  • Many are now said to be too scared to show their support of a No vote
  • Ed Miliband was forced to abandon visit to Edinburgh shopping centre

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