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Jason

Rightmove - Prices Fall 0.8% Mom

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Period: November 13 to December 3

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...&archived=False

http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2388742005

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-13477578,00.html

Well, it's only initial asking prices anyway!!!

And Rightmove predict 2006 HPI to be +4%! :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::o

Edited by Jason

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Period: November 13 to December 3

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...&archived=False

http://business.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=2388742005

Well, it's only initial asking prices anyway!!!

And Rightmove predict 2006 HPI to be +4%! :lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::o

But what you missed out is:

"However, the average number of unsold properties on estate agents' books fell to 65 from 69 in the last survey, suggesting that activity was picking up, the report said."

Which is a far more important indicator!

And also this drop only occurred because "sellers cut their prices to book a sale before Christmas". The actual underlying rate of HPI (discounting reductions and downward pressures) is +20.237212% MOM.

Go and buy a luxury 2 bed flat for your interpretive errors immediately.

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The actual underlying rate of HPI (discounting reductions and downward pressures) is +20.237212% MOM.

Uh? Have I missed something?

"However, the average number of unsold properties on estate agents' books fell to 65 from 69 in the last survey, suggesting that activity was picking up, the report said."

I would expect less properties to be on the market this time of year. Those properties sold, wouldn't be replaced by new vendors trying to sell; they will probably wait until the new year!

Edited by Jason

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Guest consa

"However, the average number of unsold properties on estate agents' books fell to 65 from 69 in the last survey, suggesting that activity was picking up, the report said."

"they will probably wait until the new year!"

The above bold quote should be kept until March/April for comparison reasons, maybe we could force them to rephrase it:-

"However, the average number of unsold properties on estate agents' books rose to 69 from 65 in the last survey, suggesting that activity was declining, the report said."

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"However, the average number of unsold properties on estate agents' books fell to 65 from 69 in the last survey, suggesting that activity was picking up, the report said."

But does that indicate that property is being sold or owner-occupiers are taking their property off the market?

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Guest consa

This is quite exciting news, you see now we have the purchases picking up at lower prices and at the same time the falls accellerating, bit like a share falling on increasing volume, this is what I am looking out for!!

Unfortunately this is just pie in the sky at the moment, only because this is rightmove! we will have to continue to watch the indices for a few more months to see the clearer picture,

The problem with watching the builders shares for a sign:-

This could be in hidsight because builders shares will only decline after results - which means sales gone through then filtered into accounts.

I wait to be corrected?

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Guest The_Oldie

The spin in this quote from the Reuters article linked to above shows that Reuters think HPI is a good thing.

Major mortgage lender Nationwide Building Society predicted last week that house prices would at worst stagnate and at best rise by 3 percent over the course of next year.

Edit, full Rightmove report.... http://www.rightmove.co.uk/pdf/p/hpi/House...ecember2005.pdf When do they float? :rolleyes:

Back to reality: Stable housing market for 2006 and beyond…

The December edition of the Rightmove.co.uk House Price Index is now available, showing trends in asking prices up to 3rd December 2005. Based on over half of the property market, the House Price Index is the leading indicator of residential property prices in England and Wales.

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Every year properties come off the market before Christmas. A huge number of the properties here in Derbyshire have come off. March will be fascinating. Last year in my 10 mile radius 100 properties per day were coming to market.

The other factor is the 'better buy now before SIPPS gets going' factor has gone. I am sure this was stimulating buyers (via EA wind up) and holding back sellers (might as well wait until April as there will be more buyers). I expect a lot of the SIPPS sellers to come to market in spring and a lot of the previously paniced buyers to stay at home.

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March will be fascinating. Last year in my 10 mile radius 100 properties per day were coming to market.

Definitely looking forward next year not to a Spring Bounce, but the Spring Thud !

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This is only 2/3 of a month (13 Nov to 3 Dec). Deliberately so I suspect given xmas season and the fact that EAs are usually quieter then. The true monthly figure (given another 10 days!) might have been >=-1%MOM... I am sure they did not arbitrarily decide to "cut-off" at 3rd Dec just to keep the number below 1%... quite sure...er...

I think sellers have given it their last shot at toppy prices and Spring will see a wall of property on sale at more realistic levels (for lots of reasons, debt, SIPPS etc). If people reduce their prices to achieve a sale they generally will do it in round numbers (in absolute terms - eg £200,000 to £185/190,000) and I think the resulting % amounts will be of the order of 5-10%. I expect that to feed through quite quickly to sales stats.

Edited by Tempest

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These guys have taken spin into an art form;

-.8% anuualised is c. -10%pa............looking good for a serious downturn in 2006

Real reason for lower unsold properties? - most likely due to withdrawal by vendors rather than increased sales

Where are the sales volume statistics? - conspicuous by their absence.............

It looks to me that we have falling volumes on lower prices.......pretty much the beginning of the slide.....(the creaks and groans before the avalanche)

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Greater London asking prices fall 1.6% MoM. So much for the positive effects of City bonus expectations...

Asking prices in most London boroughs fell MoM, except for Kensington & Chelsea (+2.1%) as major beneficiary of City bonuses), Kingston Upon Thames (+1.4%) and Wandsworth (0.2%).

So to recap....

1. SIPPs hype has been busted

2. City bonuses now seem largely irrelevant, even in London

3. Interest rate cut argument now more finely balanced

Anything else? Apart from "house prices always go up"?

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Back to reality: Stable housing market for 2006 and beyond…

The December edition of the Rightmove.co.uk House Price Index is now available, showing trends in asking prices up to 3rd December 2005. Based on over half of the property market, the House Price Index is the leading indicator of residential property prices in England and Wales.

I want to know who actually posts crap like the above on MSN.co.uk, seems to get into journalism nowadays you just have to be stupid enough to ignore the facts.

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"...this (expected climb of 4% in 2006) is based upon the markets' sound foundations and a continuation of the recovery observed during the second half of 2005"

According to their own figures, prices fell for 4 months out of 6 during July to Dec, and fell 1.1% in total...this is a "recovery"??? :blink::blink:

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some intersting data today form rightmove, odpm nad berkeley homes( see another thread)

there is clearly a drop and if you look at odpm tables you can see that london, and southeast prices have been static since c july 2004( 18months)

the north has been rising but is slowing fast.

this is the same as in the last hpc, with the home counties leading the market by a couple of years.

interesting comment from berkeley homes that in 2005 , 50% of their sales were to investors.

what happens when the market is seen as a poor place to invest??

i dont think we will see a fast crash, just a steady pull back with increasing reductions from these absurd prices.

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So whats next?

How can they spin it back in their favour?

More importantly. Are they now going to go to the sellers and say that they NEED to reduce their expectations? I bet not! I have noticed that selling prices have been (on average) 93% of asking price for a long time now. Maybe the houses have always been 7% over-priced? So now what do we offer?

Is it still 93% or do we offer 91%?

Those who have read other threads you may know that I am offering £117,000 for a £165K asking price. That's 71% of asking price. I shall keep you informed of what happens. This is not cheeky, its not insulting. If I am successful it proves that asking prices are a joke!

TB

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Prices in North fell 5.0% last month :D av price fell from £150k to £142k in last 4 weeks!

Strange how BBC haven't picked up on that one [or have they decided not to report on Rightmove this month as 'there are too many house price surveys to report on' - the excuse they use whenever Hometrack is -ve]

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Prices in North fell 5.0% last month :D av price fell from £150k to £142k in last 4 weeks!

Strange how BBC haven't picked up on that one [or have they decided not to report on Rightmove this month as 'there are too many house price surveys to report on' - the excuse they use whenever Hometrack is -ve]

Is this accurate? If it is that's great news - although not for my brother who bought a house for 150k in Skelmersdale 6 months ago "so I can sell it on for a profit and then buy another one with the money I've made" Er lost. £8,000.

Edited by 29929BlackTuesday

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I've noticed something else too. The report has a top five and bottom five of London boroughs. Of the top five only three had price rises and two had falls. If that's the best performing in London then it's really in a big decline now.

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Taken from page 8 of the rightmove report. These are monthly figures.

Westminster -0.3%

Hammersmith & Fulham -2.2%

Camden -2.2%

Richmond Upon Thames -0.2%

Islington -2.2%

Ealing -1.9%

Some fairly prime London boroughs, falling a lot faster than Dr Bubb's crash cruise speed.

Only a few rises, mostly it looks like London is going down like the proverbial ton of bricks.

Edited by BandWagon

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  • 342 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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