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Andy*

Something Interesting That I've Noticed...

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Hi All,

I run a certain business which means I visit the same customers at their homes every X amount of weeks (I know what you've thinking, and no its not that type of business :))...

Anyway... Last week 4 of my customers informed me that they are moving... They are all well established owners having all lived in their homes for years and years and so each of them surprised me when they told me they are moving.

Each of these houses have been sold for between £1m and £1.5m.

The interesting thing is... They have all said that they are downsizing... I checked one of them out and they sold up for £1.2m and they are buying their next house for £750k.

Something tells me that each one of them smells a housing crash, so they are selling up, buying somewhere slightly smaller and pocketing the cash.

Has anyone else noticed anything similar?

Andy :)

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Hi All,

I run a certain business which means I visit the same customers at their homes every X amount of weeks (I know what you've thinking, and no its not that type of business :))...

Anyway... Last week 4 of my customers informed me that they are moving... They are all well established owners having all lived in their homes for years and years and so each of them surprised me when they told me they are moving.

Each of these houses have been sold for between £1m and £1.5m.

The interesting thing is... They have all said that they are downsizing... I checked one of them out and they sold up for £1.2m and they are buying their next house for £750k.

Something tells me that each one of them smells a housing crash, so they are selling up, buying somewhere slightly smaller and pocketing the cash.

Has anyone else noticed anything similar?

Andy :)

How old are they? My parents have just downsized. Yes they did get a bit of a windfall but they didn't do it because of the money (not considering how much building work they want to do in the new place?) just because they wanted somewhere smaller.

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Hi All,

I run a certain business which means I visit the same customers at their homes every X amount of weeks (I know what you've thinking, and no its not that type of business :))...

Anyway... Last week 4 of my customers informed me that they are moving... They are all well established owners having all lived in their homes for years and years and so each of them surprised me when they told me they are moving.

Each of these houses have been sold for between £1m and £1.5m.

The interesting thing is... They have all said that they are downsizing... I checked one of them out and they sold up for £1.2m and they are buying their next house for £750k.

Something tells me that each one of them smells a housing crash, so they are selling up, buying somewhere slightly smaller and pocketing the cash.

Has anyone else noticed anything similar?

Andy :)

when this one gets rocking housing will be one of the lesser worries.

food and energy will be the big ticket items.

if they have enough space to grow their own and get energy independent they might stand a chance

of course the PTB like centralised corporate dependency on the system so they will not make it easy for you

1)heat pumps(these work well in minimal space if required...even put in the loft if not much room outside)

2)solar/wind+ battery backup where possible

3)a decent stretch of agricultural land

that's what's needed.

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The interesting thing is... They have all said that they are downsizing... I checked one of them out and they sold up for £1.2m and they are buying their next house for £750k.

Something tells me that each one of them smells a housing crash, so they are selling up, buying somewhere slightly smaller and pocketing the cash.

Has anyone else noticed anything similar?

No; not noticing it... it may be occurring at limited level. I'm just suffering same old conditions as reported in the industry... very little stock on market - what is on market going Sold STC quickly - and continued bed-blocking for older HPI happy owners at higher end. (Hi Winkie... I know they earned their home... some though are House-Is-My-Pension types who would be quick to market if it really did look like imminent HPC).

If it is as you say, can only hope there will be fewer upsizers, against little supply on market, to start putting pressure on higher end prices, and more willingness to lower the £1m+ prices to find upsizer buyers willing to buy... thus bringing all market values down in lower transaction prices.

16 April 2015: Surveyors have urged the next Government to address the shortage of housing stock as a matter of urgency as they report increasing growth in house prices. The net balance of surveyors expecting prices to rise over the next year reached a 10-month high of 70 per cent, with the average increase expected to be 2.5 per cent.

The supply of new homes for sale tightened again in March, with a net balance of new instructions of -9 in March, compared to -8 in February. The contraction in supply was mainly concentrated in England, with surveyors suggesting that election uncertainty may be causing vendors to hold off putting their properties on the market.

“Even more worrying are the tentative signs that price momentum could be set to pick-up once again as the supply of stock to the market continues to fall. [..] Mortgage Advice Bureau head of lending Brian Murphy says: ”There is a severe lack of fresh properties coming onto the market, with current housebuilding levels failing to keep up with demand.

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/products/products-news/surveyors-warn-of-very-real-housing-crisis/2020515.article

Sunday Times

A strange housing boom with no one selling

8 June 2014

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reports a “dearth” of new instructions to sell, with 9 of its 12 regions reporting a drop in properties coming on the market. The other day I saw an estate agent’s window with 40 properties displayed with all but two of them sold. Why is this happening? Older people who might be expected to downsize appear reluctant to do so, perhaps because the returns they can get on the savings they unlock are so abysmal, and cannot compare with the strong rises in house prices. They have become the “bed blockers” of the property market.

Oh the ST article above is here in full... I'm hoping some stuff feeds through soon.

http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/002028.html

Edited by Venger

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Something interesting that I've noticed, this Web site is riddled with trolls at the moment.

They've all sold their houses for small fortunes, know people selling for small fortunes or are thinking of buying and want to ask the people waiting on the housing pyramid collapsing if it is a good time to buy.

Keep posting, it's hilarious.

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It's that time of year isn't it? Plus people trying to move before the election in case the NASTI's get back in and punish them with extra tax - bring demand forward.

As an educated guess the market will fall flay by the end of May and EA's will be closing down by March.

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I've had a think, and sure I can hold out against family forces and circumstance for another year, especially if there are some stirrings after the election and some chunky drops before the end of the year.
Enough to make those directly around me realise that housing is not a "one way bet". The thing is I've been saying this to them every year for at least the last 6, so I sound like a stuck record, playing a tune that fewer people want to hear. :/

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I know of several downsizers, but that's purely people of my parents' generation, and anecdote is not the same as real data unfortunately.

I know the anecdotes are true, but I imagine that they will be labelled as trolling none the less.

I can think of 4 older couples that have recently downsized although can't vouch for how much HPI cash they were able to collect as they are friends of my parents and we are not in the habit of discussing money with them - for all I know they sold for less than they wanted to - but as all had been in their current places for more than 20 years, I'm assuming they skimmed off a healthy (unhealthy?) dollop of cream from their sales - more cream than milk in fact.

My parents have ended up with around 300K cash left over after buying their new place - substantially downsizing and moving to a cheaper part of the country. Again this is an anecdote but it's also a fact, believe it or don't believe it, it's all the same to me. Anecdote is always skewed because people whose parents lost money or didn't make a small unearned fortune are unlikely to be posting on here.

Anecdote is not evidence, it almost certainly can't be scaled up to national levels, but it can still be fact on a very localised level.

I post this anecdote not to troll, but merely to say that I very much hope this downsizing opens up more family housing - my parents didn't need to be rattling around in their old 5 bedroom place so I'm glad they moved to somewhere smaller. I also hope that this selling off is very widespread because it means that people might have a feeling that a "crash is in the air" and they got out "just in time", so hopefully there will be a rush for the exits - lots of houses up for sale, prices forced down by a glut of property? - which I think is a good sign for a crash is it not?

Edited by Bear Necessities

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PS Count - I still maintain that I wasn't "trolling", or at least not intentionally. - Just looking for good arguments (against buying right now!) to pass on to family to shore up my HPC credentials.

If there is indeed a noticeable increase in such "trolling" then perhaps it is an indicator of something but I'm not sure what it is an indicator of! - a lot of downsizers offering their kids money? (I thought thatwell had nearly run dry by now), a lot of 30 somethings seriously pissed off at their prospects? (as has been the case for a decade), perhaps a limit to how many years of beating people can take before they just throw in the towel and try and jump on the rickety looking bandwagon at precisely the wrong moment? (although there have been several "precisely the wrong moment"s in the last few years.)

What is that line about the markets can remain "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"?

A lot of us feel like that at the moment, so the least we can hope for is some sort of swift mental breakdown (ideally for the market and not for us, but it's a close run thing!)

Edited by Bear Necessities

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If labour get in we'll get a state spending driven bounce for a year or two before a painful crisis

If Tories get in we'll get a managed devaluation of the pound making things feel pretty uncomfortable for a while

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If Labour get in and actually get around to building this million houses by 2020, how long do you think it takes to get from planning to final house? About 5 years? Although I guess they will just count a load of houses that are already being built as part of the total anyway.

Edited by Bear Necessities

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Hi All,

I run a certain business which means I visit the same customers at their homes every X amount of weeks (I know what you've thinking, and no its not that type of business :))...

Anyway... Last week 4 of my customers informed me that they are moving... They are all well established owners having all lived in their homes for years and years and so each of them surprised me when they told me they are moving.

Each of these houses have been sold for between £1m and £1.5m.

The interesting thing is... They have all said that they are downsizing... I checked one of them out and they sold up for £1.2m and they are buying their next house for £750k.

Something tells me that each one of them smells a housing crash, so they are selling up, buying somewhere slightly smaller and pocketing the cash.

Has anyone else noticed anything similar?

Andy :)

Hi Andy -- yes, I have noticed this happening in Greenwich. There have been four "for sales" recently on streets where I've seen little or no movement for a decade. All of them have been in the £750k-1m sweetspot for a downsize. I suspect the people who bought them for £150k in 1990 now see this as their chance to flee to Sussex before the prime London shakedown reaches them. "Sold STC" signs on three of them now - time on market seems to be coming in at 1-2 months.

Edited by norseraider

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BN; it *appears* to me it should only take a slight tilt in the number of such sellers, as your parents, and a (hello higher stamp duty, MMR etc) to put serious pressure on the market. Enough to find there are fewer upsizers, and then some house-is-my-pension types, willing to accept lower prices. It's just for now, I'm constantly amazed they find the upsizers... where are they all continuing to come from?

That £300,000 is serious serious money. Need a tilt in downsizers vs proceed-able upsizers. So many owners are complacent the high value is locked in.

Only a very few owners of a collapsing financial asset trade it for money at 90 percent of peak value. Some others may get out at 80 percent, 50 percent or 30 percent of peak value. In each case, sellers are simply transforming the remaining future value losses to someone else. In a bear market, the vast, vast majority does nothing and gets stuck holding assets with low or non-existent valuations.

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