Nationwide Index April '15: Prices Up 1% Mom, 5.2% Yoy

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Sure, what can go wrong there... oops, sorry, are they showering cash?.... or extending credit?

Yeah, what can possibly go wrong

[Venger]

Worst case Central bankers might find themselves swinging from lampposts ?

Wont take much for an impoverished population to turn on they people they blame for their povery.

What then ?

Go on, print somre more money, lets see where we are with 2 million using food banks and 20 million not being able to afford gas

There's millions more celebrating the central bankers, and who will defend them.... home-owners of all ages / investors. There's all sorts of implied points for HPC into the short-and-longer future, but 40%-80%+ HPI in London last few years (figures used from other hpcer yesterday.. 30%+ in my target area for buying in the North). An illogical sympathetic stance from renters that buyers at ever higher prices are victims... BTL investors / global money-sloshing investors... who knows re any future hpc. Future historians in 2115 may write how it was unfair times for the renter-saver... when we're long dead, yay.

A lot of hpcers need to brace themselves for being the 'Rent Forever Losers' the MSEers and others always told them they were, into very old-age / or perhaps some will inherit and be happy with a later HPI/housing assist.

We'll see. There are two wolves coming up the path for house prices: demographic change and market forces. Demographic change means the majority of the electorate will have been born after 1980 at some point in the 2020s. Market forces mean that a house is only worth what somebody can afford to pay for it, and the real wages that people use to pay for housing continue to collapse.

Everybody seems convinced that the government can keep market forces at bay in the housing market for as long as it wants, so my guess is that everybody is wrong and it will be market forces that do the job even before it become electorally advantageous for a government to do it anyway.

The other response to the ladderist propaganda that you must first buy a "starter flat" is that many people in their 30s have been living in flats for a long time already, it's just that they were renting them and saving cash rather than paying mortgage interest and capital. This is my own situation. I can feel that my household is likely to outgrow 1 bedroom flats in the next 3-5 years as we look to start a family. No doubt many Boomers would say I'm being greedy for wanting my first purchased property to be large enough to raise children in and to consist of more than a double bedroom, a living room with a dining table in it, 1 bathroom and a galley kitchen. To those Boomers I say this: FOAD.

None so blind as those who will not see.

Looking at the overall stats, we could be below 50% ownership by 2031. I apologize to some posters who would like a chart to back that up but, you know, it hasn't happened yet.

My sister has just bought her first BTL, against my advice. I actually heard her say to me on the phone 'It's my pension, isn't it". Looking to charge around a grand a month rent in an area where the average salary is 25k. I've seen the property - reckon a major repair (heating/water/roof) will be needed within 5 years. Chance of a troubled tenant fairly high in that area, too.

I despair.

I'll update you lot as it ends in tears. No doubt somehow it will be my fault.

The claim upthread was that democracy will be able to completely ignore the desires of non-homeowners until they form more than 50% of the electorate. The modelling shows that on current trends the 50% threshold is likely to be reached at some point in the 2020s.

My feeling is that democracy will not be able to completely ignore this group for that long. The red-blue days of the 1950s are long gone and the electorate is fragmenting into many minority interest groups with no natural party affiliation. Any party or coalition that wants to form a government will have to appeal to a collection of minority groups, and the 20-30-40% of adults locked out of stable housing tenures will become an increasingly appealing target.

I wish I could believe this, but personal experience tells me otherwise. My 1950s-born parents have three 1980s-born children whose lives are all being negatively affected by the ridiculous cost and poor availability of housing in areas with good employment opportunities. My parents are delighted that their bland mass-produced house from the 1970s which they bought for barely 6 figures in the mid 1990s is now valued at half a million. They have no intention of downsizing and will never realise that paper gain. Despite the fact that they are intelligent people and we have discussed it many times they cannot put 2 and 2 together to understand why my siblings and I are not following their trajectory through life.

I do not believe that it will ever dawn on the vast majority of ordinary Boomers who own a single property and who will never downsize that HPI has done nothing to help them and has made the lives of their offspring worse. They will take their HPI fanaticism to the grave.

[Sandwiches33]

Yeah, what can possibly go wrong

LOL I was explaining this very scenario to a bloke in my work who was insistent voting tory was the only way to maintain the economic turnaround.

Ten minutes of me explaining Wiemar republic and us now in more debt to gdp than they were and the swing to the right when it goes tits and I could actually see his brain "blue screen of death"

It wont happen again its different this time eh?

[Fed_Up]

LOL I was explaining this very scenario to a bloke in my work who was insistent voting tory was the only way to maintain the economic turnaround.

Ten minutes of me explaining Wiemar republic and us now in more debt to gdp than they were and the swing to the right when it goes tits and I could actually see his brain "blue screen of death"

It wont happen again its different this time eh?

Will the Lisbon Treaty be our version of the Treaty of Versailles, do you think?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

There's millions more celebrating the central bankers, and who will defend them.... home-owners of all ages / investors. There's all sorts of implied points for HPC into the short-and-longer future, but 40%-80%+ HPI in London last few years (figures used from other hpcer yesterday.. 30%+ in my target area for buying in the North). An illogical sympathetic stance from renters that buyers at ever higher prices are victims... BTL investors / global money-sloshing investors... who knows re any future hpc. Future historians in 2115 may write how it was unfair times for the renter-saver... when we're long dead, yay.

A lot of hpcers need to brace themselves for being the 'Rent Forever Losers' the MSEers and others always told them they were, into very old-age / or perhaps some will inherit and be happy with a later HPI/housing assist.

Try spending your bricks and mortar on food.

It's the poor and hungry the bankers need to worry about. There might be 10 million old winners but 1 million angry hungry young people would easily destroy their economic miracle in a short space of time.

As I keep saying. Owning a house in the UK ain't a great idea right now. Stay flexible and if it all looks like it's going down the plug hole, Move, before its too late

Edited April 29, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere

[Assume The Opposite]

LOL I was explaining this very scenario to a bloke in my work who was insistent voting tory was the only way to maintain the economic turnaround.

Ten minutes of me explaining Wiemar republic and us now in more debt to gdp than they were and the swing to the right when it goes tits and I could actually see his brain "blue screen of death"

It wont happen again its different this time eh?

Well said. The voting illiteracy seems to be worse than I thought. My ex stepdad said he'll be voting UKIP. The kicker is that he's foreign. He recently changed his mind after some home truths about the real state of the country like above^^.

[Sandwiches33]

You know if there was all all powerful elite rigging the voting system I wouldn't blame them, after years of a piss poor state education and a culture which attacks reading or intelligence some of the people I meet shouldn't be allowed to vote.

I am not suggesting this of course but the level of cognitive dissonance is now astonishing and I despair at it all.

[Fromage Frais]

No one is dragging anyone into the banks to arrange mortgages for them. Might as well be campaigning for all this HPI of recent years, when 6 years+ of excuses that house buyers have low-IQs, and big-concern to occasional borrower-buyer from years and years back, who hasn't made any provision to repay the £25K she agreed to borrow under some scheme with the developer.

£550,000 http://www.rightmove...l?premiumA=true

Sale Date: 25 Jun 2004. Price Paid: £285,000

http://www.rightmove...country=england

This property has now gone SSTC within days of being listed so i can only imagine 500/525 if not the full price.

This literally means the price of this type of house is circa 200K more than 2011 a near 30% increase. New highs tested now each listing assuming this carries on like this (7.5% per year) you talking 800k by 2020.

Its utterly ridiculous the price has increased by 50k per year since 2011 which is about the pre tax household income of the area.

Edited May 3, 2015 by Fromage Frais

[Ash4781]

Finding alot of older downsizer owners properties I am looking at. Prices at 2007 and some but houses require re-wires, new carpet, new boilers, new bathroom, new kitchen. One yesterday had no gas and a leased solar panel installation. They won't entertain discounts though they have bought years ago maybe in pre 2000 ish so looking at 3x their money. There are few selling from period 2004-2008 but there has been some press that many from that period towards end cannot re-mortgaged can't move. Quite a few from 2009/10 but that was a dip.

A few of the probates seem to be picked up by flippers.

[Fromage Frais]

Finding alot of older downsizer owners properties I am looking at. Prices at 2007 and some but houses require re-wires, new carpet, new boilers, new bathroom, new kitchen. One yesterday had no gas and a leased solar panel installation. They won't entertain discounts though they have bought years ago maybe in pre 2000 ish so looking at 3x their money. There are few selling from period 2004-2008 but there has been some press that many from that period towards end cannot re-mortgaged can't move. Quite a few from 2009/10 but that was a dip.

A few of the probates seem to be picked up by flippers.

Seeing the same here in many cases once you add in the glazing, heating, wiring, carpeting etc etc they are more expensive than the ones that are done up.

Unfortunately the days of putting grandmas house on for 30% too much and leaving it for the market to catch it up are back in my area.

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

Cheltenham and Gloucester city centres are 10 miles apart with a wide area dependant price variation. The Oxford Cotswold side of Cheltenham is very bubblelicious, with the cheap n cheerful plots being mostly in parts of Gloucester. This is the 3 and 4 bed family semi/detached used market, normally I would say as traditional working class estates and privately owned council houses, 150k to 350k and much more in those prime postcodes with non standard builds.

Most parts of Gloucester has lost value in real terms when adjusted for inflation. This past 12 months some reaching 2007 plus 10% (still a ~15 to 20% real terms RPI adjusted loss) but a fair percentage selling at not much above 2004/2006 prices, RPI inflation adjusted is about a 35% loss on a 10 year purchase. When you include transaction costs, maintenance and debt interest costs the numbers can look pretty awful.

Approximately speaking.

[Venger]

Finding alot of older downsizer owners properties I am looking at. Prices at 2007 and some but houses require re-wires, new carpet, new boilers, new bathroom, new kitchen. One yesterday had no gas and a leased solar panel installation. They won't entertain discounts though they have bought years ago maybe in pre 2000 ish so looking at 3x their money. There are few selling from period 2004-2008 but there has been some press that many from that period towards end cannot re-mortgaged can't move. Quite a few from 2009/10 but that was a dip.

A few of the probates seem to be picked up by flippers.

Stick to the plan Ash, imo - position for HPC.

Osbourne abandoned his plan A of rebalancing the economy. This does open up an opportunity much like upto 2007 to strengthen personal balance sheets sadly at the expense of those taking on debts. Commentators including Osbourne (unbalanced) and Bank of England suggest the recovery isn't based on anything. Wage growth is weak as is productivity growth.

The plan is to rent for a couple of years as it offers flexibility to change costs and locations. Renting offers flexibility that to me is valuable.

[Ash4781]

Stick to the plan Ash, imo - position for HPC.

Yeah the buyers won't move on price . There was a thread on builders reigning in housing starts so they may be positioning. The chart below - probably can work out where the plan was abandoned...

[Eddie_George]

Yeah the buyers won't move on price . There was a thread on builders reigning in housing starts so they may be positioning. The chart below - probably can work out where the plan was abandoned...

Look how quickly that last crash happened, about a year peak to trough. And this time we're going harder, deeper and for longer.