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Nationwide Index April '15: Prices Up 1% Mom, 5.2% Yoy

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http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Apr_2015.pdf

“The price of a typical UK home increased by 1% in April - the largest monthly increase since June 2014. As a result, the annual pace of house price growth increased for the first time in seven months, edging up to 5.2% from 5.1% in March. “The pick-up in price growth has occurred even though the pace of activity in the housing market has remained fairly subdued in recent months. Indeed, the number of mortgage approvals is still well below its long run average and 20% below the levels recorded in early 2014. “The strength of the economy and relatively subdued pace of activity in the housing market remains something of an anomaly. It is possible that heightened uncertainty ahead of the election is weighing on activity, though there is no compelling evidence from previous UK elections to suggest a strong impact. “Healthy labour market conditions and continued low mortgage rates should help underpin housing demand in the quarters ahead.

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In the op quote NWide hint at the lower transaction volumes (well atleast mortgages). I expect like other lenders they are cutting mortgage rates for products while volumes fall.

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lower volumes, higher prices, supported by lower rates.

fewer people offered, but how do they manage the 5% increase in prices?...they say it themselves, further lowering of rates.

How low can they go?

and how small is this particular sample going to go?

and how much of this small sample consisting of HTB assistance propping it all up still?

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I'd guest nationwide is the lender of choice for the middle class Londoner selling up and moving out of London, taking on more debt to buy that dream home.

How could it in wrong.

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Plays into exactly what i am seeing on my doorstep.

People who can borrow from London or locals on high income borrowing loads to buy the very few nice houses that come onto the market.

These rare buyers complete at kite flying prices which then lead to a slow market as others in lesser properties want to sell at prices near to the better ones.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-51501008.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34405191.html

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49499956.html?premiumA=true

If any of these latest ones sell its going over 100k a bedroom for norwich in my area. Which interestingly means buying a family home even at 5 bedrooms is pretty much more expensive than a flat per room.

Crazy and it cannot be good for agents selling so few properties even at these higher prices.

Edited by Fromage Frais

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Yay for me eh? What am I going to spend that £2000 on? Oh wait :(

Feckin idiotic stupid government interventionist rentier policies.

“The strength of the economy and relatively subdued pace of activity in the housing market remains something of an anomaly.

Maybe something to do with 0% interest rates?

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“The strength of the economy housing market and relatively subdued pace of activity in the housing market economy remains something of an anomaly.

Corrected...

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The strength of the economy and relatively subdued pace of activity in the housing market remains something of an anomaly.

How do they keep a straight face as they write this stuff? Could it just possibly be that perhaps the economy isn't actually all that strong after all?

Nah, couldn't be.

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How do they keep a straight face as they write this stuff? Could it just possibly be that perhaps the economy isn't actually all that strong after all?

Nah, couldn't be.

koolaid-good.png

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No one is dragging anyone into the banks to arrange mortgages for them. Might as well be campaigning for all this HPI of recent years, when 6 years+ of excuses that house buyers have low-IQs, and big-concern to occasional borrower-buyer from years and years back, who hasn't made any provision to repay the £25K she agreed to borrow under some scheme with the developer.

Plays into exactly what i am seeing on my doorstep.

People who can borrow from London or locals on high income borrowing loads to buy the very few nice houses that come onto the market.

These rare buyers complete at kite flying prices which then lead to a slow market as others in lesser properties want to sell at prices near to the better ones.

Offers in Excess of £750,000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-51501008.html

No public previous sold data for no.28. http://www.zoopla.co.uk/property/28-mill-hill-road/norwich/nr2-3dp/16850632

Offers in Excess of £700,000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-34405191.html

Sale Date: 01 Jul 2003. Price Paid: £340,000
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=28597007&sale=24849335&country=england

(Looks like they tried to sell it in 2011 too.. 'Previously listed 2011' archive)

£550,000 http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-49499956.html?premiumA=true

Sale Date: 25 Jun 2004. Price Paid: £285,000
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=49499956&sale=24852725&country=england

If any of these latest ones sell its going over 100k a bedroom for norwich in my area. Which interestingly means buying a family home even at 5 bedrooms is pretty much more expensive than a flat per room.

Crazy and it cannot be good for agents selling so few properties even at these higher prices.

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Central bankers have cried wolf re. interest rates far too often in the last few years, 0.5% seen as forever now by some.

This may be a wise time to start raising before we get a blow off phase in all asset Markets.

Meanwhile, I am seeing incredibly low volumes on estate agents books...this is surely propping up prices.

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Meanwhile, I am seeing incredibly low volumes on estate agents books...this is surely propping up prices.

Same for my area. My old alerts are still on rightmove and I seldom see anything new to market. I had up the price range to check that stuff was still being shifted.

Market feels paralysed in parts.

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Central bankers have cried wolf re. interest rates far too often in the last few years, 0.5% seen as forever now by some.

This may be a wise time to start raising before we get a blow off phase in all asset Markets.

Meanwhile, I am seeing incredibly low volumes on estate agents books...this is surely propping up prices.

I won't forget this fact, if and when (and it's a big IF) prices/values begin to soften-slide in the future. Nothing was stopping any owner coming to market and likely achieving a very good price, in this current market. There will be no need for excuses for the owner side.

Many an official survey (inc OBR) predicts massive house price inflation into the long-future. There's no certainty of hpc whatsoever... we're all market participants... renter side and buyer/ owner side. Seems to me the authorities could smooth imbalances out over decades, at the expense of those who don't/won't inherit.

16 April 2015: Surveyors have urged the next Government to address the shortage of housing stock as a matter of urgency as they report increasing growth in house prices. The net balance of surveyors expecting prices to rise over the next year reached a 10-month high of 70 per cent, with the average increase expected to be 2.5 per cent.

The supply of new homes for sale tightened again in March, with a net balance of new instructions of -9 in March, compared to -8 in February. The contraction in supply was mainly concentrated in England, with surveyors suggesting that election uncertainty may be causing vendors to hold off putting their properties on the market.

“Even more worrying are the tentative signs that price momentum could be set to pick-up once again as the supply of stock to the market continues to fall. [..] Mortgage Advice Bureau head of lending Brian Murphy says: ”There is a severe lack of fresh properties coming onto the market, with current housebuilding levels failing to keep up with demand.

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/products/products-news/surveyors-warn-of-very-real-housing-crisis/2020515.article

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I wouldn't put it past the money lenders, desperate to keep their balance sheets solvent, to be making this s**t up. Just my opinion, no hard facts.

The NR was doing loony lending pre-2007, not it's the nationwide.

NR - 120% loans at 2007 prices

NW - 120% of the 2007 crazy values ?

Wages - Same

IR - lower

Cost of Lving - Higher

It's a powder keg waiting to blow.

Would the establishment banks be glad to see the back of the NW ?

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I won't forget this fact, if and when (and it's a big IF) prices/values begin to soften-slide in the future. Nothing was stopping any owner coming to market and likely achieving a very good price, in this current market. There will be no need for excuses for the owner side.

Other than the fact no one is buying. The LR ( actual sale prices ) are 20% lower than asking prices and if they are trading up they will be loosing out BIG time.

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Without some unforeseen event, nothing is likely to change in the short term.

I predict stagnation.

The event happened in 2007. You must have missed it, what we have seen since is the desperate attempts to fix it, but they have made it much worse. Sure, the bankers balance sheet s n ow probably look solvent, but off the back of printed money, low sales volumes price index and a massive london bubble scam. We've had the stagnation, from 2009-2013.

At some point, the dams will have to break.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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It won't blow up because central banks will keep supplying cash.

Worst case Central bankers might find themselves swinging from lampposts ?

Wont take much for an impoverished population to turn on they people they blame for their povery.

What then ?

Go on, print somre more money, lets see where we are with 2 million using food banks and 20 million not being able to afford gas

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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It won't blow up because central banks will keep supplying cash.

Sure, what can go wrong there... oops, sorry, are they showering cash?.... or extending credit?

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Central bankers have cried wolf re. interest rates far too often in the last few years, 0.5% seen as forever now by some.

This may be a wise time to start raising before we get a blow off phase in all asset Markets.

Say what???

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