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British Eu Exit Could Hit Uk Gdp Hard Long-Term, German Study Finds

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/04/27/uk-britain-eu-brexit-germany-idUKKBN0NI0Z620150427

If Britain leaves the European Union it could knock up to 14 percent off its gross domestic product by 2030, taking into account all negative factors including lost economic dynamism, a study by two leading German institutes found.

Based on 2014 values, Britain's GDP could be 313 billion euros (£224 billion) lower - or 4,850 euros per capita - by 2030 in a worst-case scenario, the study released on Monday by the Bertelsmann Foundation and Ifo economic research institute said.

Under more favourable circumstances - such as Britain forging free trade agreements with the EU from outside the bloc - real per capita GDP could end up between 0.6 percent and 3 percent lower, or between 220 to 1,025 euros per capita.

"The bottom line is that everyone involved would lose economically and politically from the UK leaving the EU," the study by the two respected German institutes concluded.

The findings portray a more dramatic 'Brexit' scenario than that forecast last month by the Open Europe think tank. It predicted Britain's GDP falling by 2.2 percent by 2030 if it were to leave the EU.

"If trade economic as well as dynamic economic consequences, such as the weakening of both innovative power as well as London as a financial centre, are taken into account together, the GDP losses in the unfavourable scenario could reach 14 percent," the German study said.

I didn't realise the UK economy did have any dynamism outside the City and house prices.

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Vested interest in the stability of the EU says leaving the EU would be bad.

Or put another way Ed Milliband says vote for me and no one else......

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Makes sense. Now we know why all those UK based PLC's and multi-nationals beat the drum against a Brexit. They don't want to lose all this lovely money. Would the man in the street even notice ? He could still go for 2 weeks abroad. Buy his EU tat online. Sure, wine and champagne might go up a bit, but the English growers will fill that gap, won't they? Simple supply and demand.

Edited by Agentimmo

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The pain has got to be worth it!

If that pain isn't real then all the better!

Joining the EU has been like going on holiday with that couple from work, yes they seemed decent and interesting when you hardly knew them, but now after 2 weeks of hell, you realise they are selfish, tight fisted, controlling, demeaning and deaf to your remonstrations!

I won't be sending the EU a Christmas card ever again!

Edited by XswampyX

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The pain has got to be worth it!

If that pain isn't real then all the better!

Joining the EU has been like going on holiday with that couple from work, yes they seemed decent and interesting when you hardly knew them, but now after 2 weeks of hell, you realise they are selfish, tight fisted, controlling, demeaning and deaf to your remonstrations!

I won't be sending the EU a Christmas card ever again!

Blackmail and threats seem to work though...Logic would suggest Greece would have gone their own way years ago now...but no, theyre a glutton for punishment.

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As usual plenty of claims without any supporting and substantiating detail.


..innovative power..

That'll be the innovative power of the financial sector to thieve from and defraud taxpayers and savers etc.

Edited by billybong

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I guess we wouldn't see so many German cars on UK roads. Maybe we'll start making cars again.

you would certainly see some russian tanks on german roads.

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I guess we wouldn't see so many German cars on UK roads. Maybe we'll start making cars again.

UK vehicle production is actually now at record levels. Jaguar-Landrover, Nissan, Honda etc...

It is one of the few successful industries we have.

Blocking free trade would probably hurt Germany & France more than us, but would threaten Japanese car manufacture here.

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