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One can feel it in The air.

The 2nd phase of the credit crunch is coming.

What will the do to "save us" this time?

Nothing I suspect, just let the poor investors loose it all.

I went on safari once, watched a lion eat a warthog.

That's life.

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One can feel it in The air.

The 2nd phase of the credit crunch is coming.

What will the do to "save us" this time?

Nothing I suspect, just let the poor investors loose it all.

I went on safari once, watched a lion eat a warthog.

That's life.

Except that in this case it will very likely be humans killing other humans for food. Be careful what you wish for!

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One can feel it in The air.

The 2nd phase of the credit crunch is coming.

What will the do to "save us" this time?

Nothing I suspect, just let the poor investors loose it all.

I went on safari once, watched a lion eat a warthog.

That's life.

Bring back Gordon Brown! He saved* the world last time.

* - 'saved' - meaning saved the little political credibilty he had left by enslaving this and the next few generations of the UK populations to bailing out his mate at RBS.

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There's a 70s-style stagflationary oil shock coming.

No, wait... there really is!

LONDON (Reuters) - Whisper it, but the next challenge for financial markets and policymakers may not be deflation, but the remarkable surge in oil prices from the six-year low touched in January.

Since then, Brent crude futures have risen 45 percent. If that is sustained or even increased throughout this year, inflation next year could rise significantly, posing questions for policymakers largely committed to ultra-loose policy.

No fewer than 27 central banks around the world have eased monetary policy to some extent this year in a battle against deflation, slowing growth or both.

These measures have ranged from interest rate cuts to bond-buying "quantitative easing" programmes. All have been in response to the fall in inflation rates and inflation expectations driven by the 60 percent collapse in oil prices over the latter part of last year.

Investors' bets on the timing of the first interest rate increase from the U.S. Federal Reserve were pushed back to late this year or maybe even 2016, the euro plummeted and global stocks rose to new historical peaks.

But many of these market moves have stalled, some even reversing. Inflation assumptions baked into index-linked bonds have rebounded, the euro is up five weeks out of the last six, and asset prices of oil exporters such as Russia have recovered a large chunk of last year's dramatic oil-led slump.

"Deflation fears are overdone and we're seeing some upside surprises now, although risks of persistent low inflation remain," said Ruben Segura-Cayuela, peripheral euro zone economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London.

"A positive oil shock has a detrimental effect on growth and activity, and could generate some volatility, " he said.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/deflation-oils-45-percent-rebound-102407219.html

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Except that in this case it will very likely be humans killing other humans for food. Be careful what you wish for!

Oh shut up with you transferred guilt

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There's a 70s-style stagflationary oil shock coming.

No, wait... there really is!

Bull trap?

China crashing and too much oil inventory already. Someone with balls could make a lot of money shorting this one.

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Except that in this case it will very likely be humans killing other humans for food. Be careful what you wish for!

Best to stock up on years worth of food rather than gold and bitcoin.

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Except that in this case it will very likely be humans killing other humans for food. Be careful what you wish for!

Eric pickles must be bricking it. Plenty to go around and not too quick I'd imagine.

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Except that in this case it will very likely be humans killing other humans for food. Be careful what you wish for!

You only have to run faster than the next guy - and in the UK I feel confident I could run faster than 90% of the rest of the population.

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One can feel it in The air.

The 2nd phase of the credit crunch is coming.

What will the do to "save us" this time?

Nothing I suspect, just let the poor investors loose it all.

I went on safari once, watched a lion eat a warthog.

That's life.

Confiscate your savings. Obviously.

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They will do QE for ever or as long as they can get away with it

Edited by Killer Bunny

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Best to stock up on years worth of food rather than gold and bitcoin.

I can't, I don't own a house to put in all in!

They will do QE for ever or as long as they can get away with it

I agree but the real question is how long can they get away with it? Longer than Japan?

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We draw a lot of comparisons with japan but they also do still make stuff. They have Toyota, Honda Nissan, Sony, Nintendo, Canon, Nikon etc. What do we have? I mean at least they still make stuff or at least have companies involved in the making of stuff. We dont even have cadburies anymore. If we are relying on our "financial" industries does that not mean we are really in trouble?

Its just something I have been thinking about but I am not well versed in international commerce it just seems like I buy a lot of japanese stuff.

Just a thought correct me if I am wrong

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It's obvious there'll be another 2008 style crisis at some point, and it's obvious what the response will be regardless of the government we have here in the UK. More QE, and more measures to bail existing borrowers, be they financial institutions or individuals with mortgages, probably with some negative interest rates somewhere in the mix for good measure. It'll probably result in more general deflation, and more inflation in assets, like it has done so far.

They're going to take this one all the way, of that I have no doubt. The only question is, how far can it go? And I'm inclined to think - quite a bit further.

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Maybe. One thing's for sure they won't be able to slash rates.

#turningjapanese

BTW The title "2008.2" comes from KB. He has pointed out first that it's coming, I agree. This is gonna be a GREAT thead,

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It's obvious there'll be another 2008 style crisis at some point, and it's obvious what the response will be regardless of the government we have here in the UK. More QE, and more measures to bail existing borrowers, be they financial institutions or individuals with mortgages, probably with some negative interest rates somewhere in the mix for good measure. It'll probably result in more general deflation, and more inflation in assets, like it has done so far.

They're going to take this one all the way, of that I have no doubt. The only question is, how far can it go? And I'm inclined to think - quite a bit further.

It'll all go Argentina in that case.

Sooner than later I suspect.

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We draw a lot of comparisons with japan but they also do still make stuff. They have Toyota, Honda Nissan, Sony, Nintendo, Canon, Nikon etc. What do we have? I mean at least they still make stuff or at least have companies involved in the making of stuff. We dont even have cadburies anymore. If we are relying on our "financial" industries does that not mean we are really in trouble?

Its just something I have been thinking about but I am not well versed in international commerce it just seems like I buy a lot of japanese stuff.

Just a thought correct me if I am wrong

Mitsubishi/ Hitachi the list goes on and on ...i`m no expert but i don`t think we can keep the plates spinning for even a fraction of the the time Japan have managed we have only managed to keep them spinning so far as we were deemed to be the best looking horse in the glue factory

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It'll all go Argentina in that case.

Sooner than later I suspect.

I'm more inclined to agree with those who compare us to Japan rather than Argentina. Japan also shows us that these things can drag on for years.

Politics has become completely decoupled from macroeconomics and appears to be moving in a different direction. At some point they'll become so incompatible that there'll be some kind of reckoning, but for now the central bankers will just carry on trying to get the economy back to 'normal' by flogging the dead horse of QE.

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