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HOLA441
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HOLA442

Figure 13 is a bit misleading because it's showing the indexed effective rate received/paid by ALL savers and borrowers on outstanding deposits/loans. Since borrowing tends to be long and saving short, when rates are falling the average rate being received by all savers will drop more rapidly than the average rate being paid by all borrowers, even if the interest rate spread on new business is constant.

As for the timing of the decline, we can't say for sure but that was likely due to the FLS scheme. Although the first drawdowns for FLS began in Q3 2012, it took several months for rates to be materially affected (as predicted by the BoE).

Thanks for that FT.

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HOLA443

It seems strange that repo's are lower than 2007 when real wages have been in sustained fall since 2008/9.Admittedly we've seen lower mortgage rates and burgeoning fiscal deficits but then that doesn't bode well for bank solvency.

The latest stuff I could find on the ONS was this Apr 2013 piece stating wages down 8.5% since 2009.(I think it's been posted here before)

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regional-trends/regional-economic-analysis/changes-in-real-earnings-in-the-uk-and-london--2002-to-2012/sum-real-wages-down-by-8-5--since-2009.html

Any low level mortgage rate reset could send it spinning t'other way.

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HOLA444
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HOLA445

Friday, 15 May 2015

LSL Property Services / Acadata: House Price Index, April 2015

The LSL / Acad index doesn't get much love on the HPC forum, but once you get past the VI-biased introduction I think Peter Williams does a good job and he often includes some interesting analysis (the intro has actually been quite entertaining ever since Adrian Gill began authoring it a few months ago - apart from the generous inclusion of tortured mixed metaphors we have gems like this: "Annual price growth is still cooling, but mainly due to some recent negative monthly price rises").

Also this index uses the Land Reg price-paid dataset, and so unlike Nationwide and Halifax this is a lead indicator which includes cash purchases as well as mortgaged ones.

In April house prices rose 0.2% in England & Wales according to the LSL /Acad index, considerably lower than the rises for the whole of the UK reported by Nationwide (+1.0% ) and Halifax (+1.6%).

Prices in London fell by 0.6% in March, after a 0.2% decline in February (regional data is updated with a one month lag).

LSL-Acad_Apr15a.gif

LSL-Acad_Apr15b.gif

LSL-Acad_Apr15c.gif

Edited by FreeTrader
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HOLA446

Tuesday, 19 May 2015

ONS: UK House Price Index, March 2015

On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 1.1% between February and March 2015. UK house prices increased by 9.6% in the year to March 2015, up from 7.4% in the year to February 2015.

ONS_HPI_0315.gif
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CML: Mortgage Lending, March 2015

The CML's lending data cover actual mortgages advanced, not mortgage approvals. Unfortunately these statistics have been undermined in the past through subsequent revisions that have cast doubt on the accuracy of the first-release data.

CML_0315a.gif

CML_0315b.gif

CML_0315c.gif

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HOLA447

Tuesday, 19 May 2015

ONS: UK House Price Index, March 2015

On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices increased by 1.1% between February and March 2015. UK house prices increased by 9.6% in the year to March 2015, up from 7.4% in the year to February 2015.

ONS_HPI_0315.gif

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CML: Mortgage Lending, March 2015

The CML's lending data cover actual mortgages advanced, not mortgage approvals. Unfortunately these statistics have been undermined in the past through subsequent revisions that have cast doubt on the accuracy of the first-release data.

CML_0315a.gif

CML_0315b.gif

CML_0315c.gif

The income stats in the affordability tables - are they net or gross?

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HOLA448

The income stats in the affordability tables - are they net or gross?

They're based on gross household income. The CML 'averages' are all median values I believe. They give household income of £38,500 in March 2015 for FTBs and £54,135 for home movers.

They also give a median loan size of £123,290 in March for FTBs and £160,615 for home movers. However when you take the mean instead of the median the average loan size comes out much higher, as in the table below:

CML_0315d.gif

This makes the loan to income values look a bit odd, but it could be down to the data distribution. FTBs and home movers are borrowing roughly 9% more than a year ago on average, and yet the claimed median income multiple has actually fallen for FTBs from 3.43 to 3.36 and is essentially unchanged for home movers.

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HOLA449

They're based on gross household income. The CML 'averages' are all median values I believe. They give household income of £38,500 in March 2015 for FTBs and £54,135 for home movers.

They also give a median loan size of £123,290 in March for FTBs and £160,615 for home movers. However when you take the mean instead of the median the average loan size comes out much higher, as in the table below:

CML_0315d.gif

This makes the loan to income values look a bit odd, but it could be down to the data distribution. FTBs and home movers are borrowing roughly 9% more than a year ago on average, and yet the claimed median income multiple has actually fallen for FTBs from 3.43 to 3.36 and is essentially unchanged for home movers.

Interesting, thanks.

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HOLA4410
10
HOLA4411

Release date: 19 May, 2:00pm


April House Price Index - headline figures from Land Registry’s HPI show an annual price increase of 5.1 per cent with the average price in England & Wales now £179,817 compared with a peak of £181,014 in November 2007.


Monthly house prices up 0.9 per cent since March 2015.


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HOLA4412

Release date: 19 May, 2:00pm

April House Price Index - headline figures from Land Registry’s HPI show an annual price increase of 5.1 per cent with the average price in England & Wales now £179,817 compared with a peak of £181,014 in November 2007.

Monthly house prices up 0.9 per cent since March 2015.

Reversing the previous 0.8% fall.

Following the trend of the last few Haliwide releases, as much as I hate to say it, the Land Reg should hit a new nominal peak this summer...

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HOLA4413
13
HOLA4414

Friday, 15 May 2015

LSL Property Services / Acadata: House Price Index, April 2015

The LSL / Acad index doesn't get much love on the HPC forum, but once you get past the VI-biased introduction I think Peter Williams does a good job and he often includes some interesting analysis (the intro has actually been quite entertaining ever since Adrian Gill began authoring it a few months ago - apart from the generous inclusion of tortured mixed metaphors we have gems like this: "Annual price growth is still cooling, but mainly due to some recent negative monthly price rises").

Also this index uses the Land Reg price-paid dataset, and so unlike Nationwide and Halifax this is a lead indicator which includes cash purchases as well as mortgaged ones.

In April house prices rose 0.2% in England & Wales according to the LSL /Acad index, considerably lower than the rises for the whole of the UK reported by Nationwide (+1.0% ) and Halifax (+1.6%).

Prices in London fell by 0.6% in March, after a 0.2% decline in February (regional data is updated with a one month lag).

LSL-Acad_Apr15a.gif

LSL-Acad_Apr15b.gif

So a 1.4% difference with the Haliwide.The falls in volume seem substantial to say the least......

Aren't there readjustments to the data as sales are added?

Edited by Sancho Panza
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HOLA4415

They're based on gross household income. The CML 'averages' are all median values I believe. They give household income of £38,500 in March 2015 for FTBs and £54,135 for home movers.

They also give a median loan size of £123,290 in March for FTBs and £160,615 for home movers. However when you take the mean instead of the median the average loan size comes out much higher, as in the table below:

CML_0315d.gif

This makes the loan to income values look a bit odd, but it could be down to the data distribution. FTBs and home movers are borrowing roughly 9% more than a year ago on average, and yet the claimed median income multiple has actually fallen for FTBs from 3.43 to 3.36 and is essentially unchanged for home movers.

Things that make you go Hmm uh oh...

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HOLA4416

Those implied FTB deposits are a big 'Hmmm...' too.

Taking the Yorks + Humber numbers.

FTP with an income of £37K can drum up a deposit of 25K?

It would be interesting to know who much of the 37k is tax credits.

My anecdotal figures from the ground is that most FTB in Yorks + Humber have sod-all saving - 10K is a suprise.

Most rely on tax credits for more than half their income.

Edited by spyguy
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HOLA4417

Those implied FTB deposits are a big 'Hmmm...' too.

Taking the Yorks + Humber numbers.

FTP with an income of £37K can drum up a deposit of 25K?

It would be interesting to know who much of the 37k is tax credits.

My anecdotal figures from the ground is that most FTB in Yorks + Humber have sod-all saving - 10K is a suprise.

Most rely on tax credits for more than half their income.

Anyone got stats showing breakdown of Ftb by age? I'm nearly 40 with no hope of buying any time soon... Gonna struggle to pay off my mortgage before retirement at this rate!

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HOLA4418

Anyone got stats showing breakdown of Ftb by age? I'm nearly 40 with no hope of buying any time soon... Gonna struggle to pay off my mortgage before retirement at this rate!

Last I read, average FTB is late-30s/early-40s.

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HOLA4419

These numbers are from the ONS background spreadsheet (table 16, simple average house prices, mortgage advances and incomes of borrowers. Figures are rounded by ONS to the nearest thousand).

ONS_HPI_0315c.gif

ONS_HPI_0315b.gif

Wow, look at the change in Scot incomes, from near lowest to above most regions, up 20K over the period. Oil and knock on effect alone?

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HOLA4420
20
HOLA4421

Thursday, 21 May 2015

ONS: Migration Statistics Quarterly Report, May 2015

  • Net long-term migration to the UK (immigration less emigration) was estimated to be 318,000 in the calendar year 2014. This was just below the previous peak (320,000 in the year ending (YE) June 2005) and a statistically significant increase from 209,000 in 2013.
  • 641,000 people immigrated to the UK in 2014, a statistically significant increase from 526,000 in 2013. There were statistically significant increases for immigration of EU (non-British) citizens (up 67,000 to 268,000) and non-EU citizens (up 42,000 to 290,000). Immigration of British citizens increased by 7,000 to 83,000, but this was not statistically significant.
  • An estimated 323,000 people emigrated from the UK in 2014. Overall emigration levels have been relatively stable since 2010.

Migration_Q4_2014a.gif

Migration_Q4_2014b.gif

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DCLG: House Building Statistics, January to March 2015

  • Seasonally adjusted house building starts in England are estimated at 40,300 in the March quarter 2015, a 31 per cent increase compared to the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted level of starts in the March quarter 2015 increased by 11 per cent on the same quarter a year earlier.
  • Seasonally adjusted completions are estimated at 34,040 in the March quarter 2015, 10 per cent higher than the previous quarter. The seasonally adjusted level of completions in the March quarter 2015 increased by 21 per cent on the same quarter a year earlier.

Brandon Lewis welcomes housebuilding surge

HousebuildingQ12015a.gif

HousebuildingQ12015b.gif

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HMRC: UK Property Transactions, April 2015

  • The seasonally adjusted estimate of the number of residential property transactions decreased by 3.4% between March 2015 and April 2015. This month’s seasonally adjusted figure is 5.6% lower compared with the same month last year.

HMRCtrans0415.gif

Longer term chart of residential property transactions:

HMRCtrans0415b.gif

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Department for Transport: Road Traffic Estimates, Great Britain 2014

  • The 311 billion vehicle miles travelled by all motor vehicles in 2014 is the highest figure since 2008. This is 2.4% higher than 2013, and represents the fastest annual growth since 1996.

RoadTraffic2014a.gif

RoadTraffic2014b.gif

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Dedicated HPC Threads:

Net Immigration Up To 318K (Marshmellow)

Edited by FreeTrader
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HOLA4422

Friday, 22 May 2015

Nationwide Building Society: Preliminary Results for the year ended 4 April 2015

I'll start off with the most striking aspect (for me) of Nationwide's 2015 results - the share of new mortgage business accounted for by FTBs fell from 31% in y/e 2014 to 26% in y/e 2015, whereas the BTL share rose from 14% to 18%.

Nationwide says: "Lending to first time buyers during the year has reduced to 26% (2014: 31%). This is a result of changes in the Group’s risk appetite relating to the average LTV of prime new lending. These changes allow the Group to mitigate the lending risk that it is exposed to from advances to first time buyers whilst still remaining committed to supporting schemes and initiatives that promote home ownership for this type of borrower."

Nationwide2015resultsB.gif

Other main points:

Nationwide saw a 32% increase in underlying profit to £1,216 million and a 54% increase in statutory profit to £1,044 million in the 2015 financial year. However gross mortgage lending fell to £27.1 billion from £28.1 billion in year-end 2014, a market share of 13.4% (2014: 14.9%).

Net mortgage lending was £7.1 billion (2014: £9.9 billion), a market share of 31.2% (2014: 70.8%).

Issued 46,000 loans to first time buyers, down from 58,100 the previous year.

Nationwide accounted for 32% of all Help to Buy equity loans.

Average LTV of new residential during the year was 66% vs 69% for y/e 2014.

Proportion of residential mortgage accounts 3 months+ in arrears fell from 0.63% to 0.49%.

Buy to Let lending via its subsidiary (The Mortgage Works) accounted for £4.7bn of total mortgage lending, representing a 16% share of BTL gross lending. The specialist mortgage book now stands at £28.3bn which represents 19% of the residential lending portfolio.

On margins:

"We estimate that our average margin on savings balances, measured against relevant market indices (swaps or LIBOR), was c.80 bps over the year in comparison to c.110 bps during the year to 4 April 2014. We have also benefited modestly from reduced spreads in the wholesale markets with an average spread of 81 bps (2014: 87 bps). The downward trend in funding costs is not expected to continue and competition in the mortgage market has intensified during the last 12 months; in consequence we do not anticipate significant growth in our net interest margin during the next financial year."

Nationwide2015resultsA.gif

Nationwide2015resultsC.gif

Nationwide2015resultsD.gif

Nationwide2015resultsE.gif

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HOLA4423
23
HOLA4424

They've been Bradford-and-Bingleyed!

Well, looking back through their past accounts it was actually a lot worse in y/e April 2012. That year BTL accounted for 25% of new mortgage business and FTBs only 17%. Maybe it's a gradual return to the new norm. ;)

Edit: I originally gave the BTL/FTB split as 31%/17%, but this was on a volume basis. Amended to show the split on a value basis, as that is the split used in the latest results.

Edited by FreeTrader
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HOLA4425

CEO stepping down too. Hmm, must be angina - like Steven Crawshaw.

NW make me uncomfortable. People think its a plain vanilla BS.

But its not, not entirely.

A large chunk of their books is made up of BTL loans, which, IMHO, is a lot riskier than OO mortgage. Much more so.

An they have no easy means of raising capital when it all goes tits-up.

If I was the FCA, I'd crawling all NW and closely tracking their delinquent loans *AND* making sure that the loan were being paid off i.e. badn them from IOs.

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