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ianbeale

What Happens To Prices During A Local Disaster?

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On the morning of sunday 11 dec 05 a large explosion occured at an oil efinery near Hemel Hempsted

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/11122005/325/larg...t-accident.html

This thread has been set up to see what impact his event has on the local housing market

On the morning of this incident rightmove indicated that there was the following statistics

properties for sale within 1 mile of the refinery postcode (HP2 7HJ) = 226

properties above that were SSTC = 45

the following repesentative sample of 10 of the above SSTC properties were taken to see what happpens to these sales/ asking properties

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-447...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy 279,950 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-886...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy 257,500 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-752...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy 239,950 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-963...pa_n=6&tr_t=buy 199,950 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-496...pa_n=7&tr_t=buy 189,950 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-854...a_n=10&tr_t=buy 179,950 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-609...a_n=13&tr_t=buy 169,950 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-492...a_n=17&tr_t=buy 159,950 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-503...a_n=19&tr_t=buy 132,500 sstc

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-489...a_n=20&tr_t=buy 119,950 sstc

the following repesentative sample of 10 of the above unsold properties were taken to see what happpens to these sales/ asking properties

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-492...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy 899,995 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-489...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy 335,000 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-372...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy 279,950 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-826...pa_n=2&tr_t=buy 246,500 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-899...pa_n=4&tr_t=buy 214,950 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-572...pa_n=6&tr_t=buy 198,000 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-973...pa_n=9&tr_t=buy 179,950 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-453...a_n=13&tr_t=buy 169,950 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-435...a_n=18&tr_t=buy 154,950 unsold

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-475...a_n=20&tr_t=buy 119,950 unsold

I will flag up this thread peiodically to review the impact at the following intervals

4 days

4 weeks

4 months

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Good work i'll be very interested to see the results of this over the coming months as i only live 3 miles from the Hemel Hempstead oil depot.

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Guest boxmoor boy

taken from http://www.muscletalk.co.uk/Explosion/m_836970/tm.htm

hmmmmm.....

'i miss all the drama! My house is a mile away but i was away for the night. Im more worried about the flat im in the process of buying which is just over the field!!!!! I wonder if it has any windows left or even walls!!!!! (lucky i havent signed yet!)"........................

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How deeply sad! What do you expect to happen? Some sales will fall through, some will persist. The same thing happened during the floods of 2000 - plenty of properties near to the floods became hard to sell, and of course the flooded ones even harder.

Of course, rivers flood periodically. Oil depots don't blow up regularly.

Who on earth wants to live near industry anyway? The days of factories near rows of terraced housing are surely long gone.

Why don't you do something useful with your life?

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Maybe they'll get snapped up by Buy-To-Lie speculators looking to make inflated insurance claims for buckled garage doors.

Absolutly hilarious!!!

there were queues for ages at the petrol pumps this morning.....how paranoid people have become!!

...I bet it was sabotage!!!!....oil companies take revenge for the windfall tax GB has just levied on them

the timing is more than a bit conspicuous!!!.

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ian beales 4 week (ish) report

total property for sale 206 (down from 226)

total sstc 36 (down from 45)

of the sample properties that were sstc

no 1 in list now unsold

no 2 in list now unsold

all others in list all sstc

of the sample properies that were unsold

no 1 in list off market

no 2 in list reduced to 320 from 335

no 8 in list off market

all others remain on market at unchanged price

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ian beales 4 week (ish) report

total property for sale 206 (down from 226)

total sstc 36 (down from 45)

of the sample properties that were sstc

no 1 in list now unsold

no 2 in list now unsold

all others in list all sstc

of the sample properies that were unsold

no 1 in list off market

no 2 in list reduced to 320 from 335

no 8 in list off market

all others remain on market at unchanged price

Could it be that there are other factors involved in any of the changes such as the Xmas period?

Cool thread though, will be interesting to see what happens in 3 months time (assuming your 4 months started a month ago). We may see if there is indeed a spring bounce.

:unsure:

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ian beales 4 week (ish) report

total property for sale 206 (down from 226)

total sstc 36 (down from 45)

of the sample properties that were sstc

no 1 in list now unsold

no 2 in list now unsold

all others in list all sstc

of the sample properies that were unsold

no 1 in list off market

no 2 in list reduced to 320 from 335

no 8 in list off market

all others remain on market at unchanged price

ian beales 4 month (ish) final report

total property for sale 211 (down from 226 at time of disaster)

total sstc 63 (up from 45)

of the sample properties that were sstc

no 1 now sold - no longer displayed

no 2 sstc

no3 sstc

no 4 sold - no longer displayed

no 5 sstc

no 6 to no10 inc all sold - no longer displayed

of the sample properies that were unsold

no 1 unsold price unchanged

no 2 removed

no 3 sold - no longer displayed

no 4 unsold price unchanged

no 5 under offer price unchanged

no 6 unsold price unchanged

no 7 removed

no 8 removed

no 9 unsold price unchanged

no 10 removed

i guess if the market has held up here then it must be true (especially the amount of sstc gone UP by over 25% - spring bounce (bugger)

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Here's what happens to house prices two and half years later:

The Guardian 28 June 08

Snippets:

At the heart of their frustration is that they feel no one has been held to account for the disaster, no one has said sorry and, crucially, no one has compensated them for their losses, which in some cases run into the hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Victims have watched as the value of their homes fall, in some cases, by as much as £200,000. Some have been forced to endure two years of living on and off in hotels, others continue to suffer the ill-effects of the explosion - psychological and financial.

Doug and Patricia Jessop know that they were lucky to escape with their lives. Their farmhouse is less than 1km from the terminal and before the fire it was surrounded by trees and hedgerows. Like many others they were woken on the day by falling masonry as their home crumbled around them.

"Our house eventually required £80,000 to rebuild it, but that is nothing to the loss of value it has suffered as a result of the explosion," says Doug Jessop.

Before the explosion an agent valued it at £675,000. "Now the trees are long gone and you can now see the site. We had one offer of £440,000."

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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