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TheCountOfNowhere

Sky News. Asking Prices Reach Record High.

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Pooonzi-tastic.

Just in time for the election.

Osborne has played a blinder, if you consider destroying the futures of a generation and rewarding the London homeowner, of which he is one, that is.

g would imagine the older home owners are the only people supporting the tory's now.

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Snozzle - I'm not convinced it's really about supply-side anymore. Over-Inflated price expectations are now baked-in for a generation of would-be owners. Combine this with ultra-cheap mortgages, and you will have over-priced homes even in a market with relatively normal supply. The answer is a combination of higher interest rates, more/better construction, and a growing realisation that houses are too expensive and should be cheaper!

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Anyone have any theories regarding why supply (house on the market) isn't forthcoming?

Owner complacency? After all, loads of HPI ahead according to many, on top of today's reflated prices. Little risk of HPC. Property gained and gained and gained value over decade after decade.. too few houses population = HPI.

After all there's a main theme from renters of 'feeling sorry for buyers' at ever crazier prices, going back years now. So many hpcers want to carry the market for every other person's VI.

16 April 2015

The net balance of surveyors expecting prices to rise over the next year reached a 10-month high of 70 per cent, with the average increase expected to be 2.5 per cent.

The supply of new homes for sale tightened again in March, with a net balance of new instructions of -9 in March, compared to -8 in February. The contraction in supply was mainly concentrated in England, with surveyors suggesting that election uncertainty may be causing vendors to hold off putting their properties on the market.

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/products/products-news/surveyors-warn-of-very-real-housing-crisis/2020515.article

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The Conservatives have been making a big thing about how the number of new homes being built is the highest for 7 years.

In reality that means that in their period in power for the last 5 years they've built something like 120,000 new homes a year and last year they built something like 120,001 (not exact figures) - all thanks to higher house prices due to Help to Buy etc.

It proves that their policies are working.

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Owner complacency? After all, loads of HPI ahead according to many, on top of today's reflated prices. Little risk of HPC. Property gained and gained and gained value over decade after decade.. too few houses population = HPI.

After all there's a main theme from renters of 'feeling sorry for buyers' at ever crazier prices, going back years now. So many hpcers want to carry the market for every other person's VI.

I guess that might be true from those who are looking to cash in their HPI at some point, but I guess a 'normal' market has a steady tick-over of people trading up and down and estates for sale after people die. As has been mentioned, election uncertainty may be causing some to postpone moving?

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Anyone have any theories regarding why supply (house on the market) isn't forthcoming?

Everyone is skint. No one can afford to move. The costs of moving are prohibitive. The asking price of family homes round our way is anything from 15 to 30 times average wage. The size of the ladder needed to climb the housing pyramid is too big and expensive. Demand for houses was stoked last year with htb and maps propaganda. all the greatest fools rushed in, now no one is left.

The UK housing market has been dead for 8 years now. All we have is some insane speculative pyramid scheme used to profit the rich, the old and the public sector through taxation.

Record high = recored stupidity = high probability of collapse.

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I guess that might be true from those who are looking to cash in their HPI at some point, but I guess a 'normal' market has a steady tick-over of people trading up and down and estates for sale after people die. As has been mentioned, election uncertainty may be causing some to postpone moving?

They often rent them out too... look on MSE... there's people buying 2nd places for work, constant BTL buying threads, hold-on/rent-out old place, buy new place (since 2009 that)... it's all about real estate... It's HPIers vs HPCers (too many of who like to be stomped on).

Inventory on market is pathetic around my search areas, and big splurge of Sold STCs recently for what is on (no one is forcing these buyers to pay ultra high prices... no need for 'I feel sorry for buyers'.

Signed a rental agreement in the NW recently, I viewed 11 or 12 places before finding one which is very nice indeed. Most of what was viewed was utter dross. A fair fraction of probate stuff which had nothing/minimal work done to rectify obvious faults. One hadn't even been cleared or cleaned properly. Thoroughly undignified.

Of the rest, nothing really took our fancy for any number of reasons- conservatory smelled bad, garage conversion was freezing, tenant said the LL was fond of popping round unannounced, etc etc. Then, when all hope was seemingly lost, we found an excellent place.

As for the agents, a couple were spot on, and a few more were real slimebags. Interesting how they latch onto my wife to attempt the hard sell.

I think we viewed:

3 pro LLs (the standard of one place was excellent, I must say. Didn't take it for other reasons. Other 2 were good)

3 probates (2 utter holes, 1 ok(newly decorated but in need of other work))

1 amatuer BTLer (fond of popping round at any time/having a go at DIY apparently, I gleaned that from the tenant since the agent wasn't present)

3 accidental LLs (garages not empty/useable, decoration screams family with small child trying to upsize or agent mentioned relocation/ it's also up for sale.)

1 unknown (guess amateur BTLer/probate place ok but not great)

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They often rent them out too... look on MSE... there's people buying 2nd places for work, constant BTL buying threads, hold-on/rent-out old place, buy new place (since 2009 that)... it's all about real estate... It's HPIers vs HPCers (too many of who like to be stomped on).

Inventory on market is pathetic around my search areas, and big splurge of Sold STCs recently for what is on (no one is forcing these buyers to pay ultra high prices... no need for 'I feel sorry for buyers'.

Ah yes I think you are Altrincham/Hale also? I'm watching what is available around the 200-260k mark recently and there isn't much. I'm loathed to buy somewhere that a developer has had their hands on because that isn't what I want really. I just have enough cash now for that sort of range but would be in a better position towards the end of the year. I'm probably just going to have to accept getting shafted by our dysfunctional property market.

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They often rent them out too... look on MSE... there's people buying 2nd places for work, constant BTL buying threads, hold-on/rent-out old place, buy new place (since 2009 that)... it's all about real estate... It's HPIers vs HPCers (too many of who like to be stomped on).

Inventory on market is pathetic around my search areas, and big splurge of Sold STCs recently for what is on (no one is forcing these buyers to pay ultra high prices... no need for 'I feel sorry for buyers'.

Just because they are being idiots doesn't mean we have to be too.

There is no news coming out in the last 6 months that points to good times ahead. Or am I missing something?

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Anyone have any theories regarding why supply (house on the market) isn't forthcoming?

1. Can't afford to step up.

2. Can't afford the moving cost to move sideways or downsize,

3. BTL landlords buying long-term for income and capital growth so removing housing stock from the market completely for long periods of time.

4. Many empty properties that were bought to store value, no income required, used as holiday lets and city breaks for friends and family at home and abroad.

Only way to release property onto the market is to make it cost-effective to do so.....at the moment for various reasons there is little reason to sell, both for owners/buyers and home/foreign investment hoarders........stalemate.....no liquidity or turnover, fewer fees and no taxes..... ;)

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In my area I think older owners know house prices are static or falling a bit.

My HPI rampant work colleagues don't talk HPI any more, but instead talk falls.

Selling for more than you paid is hardwired however, as is selling for more that what you think it was worth last year, even if that is still double what you paid 10 years ago.

Selling a house for less than it was worth yesterday, even if what you want to buy will be less, is even outside of their sphere of economic literacy.

While owners hold on, more and more of the younger generation denied 'owning' will lead alternative lifestyles and come to realise over time that owning a home and being tied to it is, at best

i) either a hindrance or not the ultimate goal in life or,

ii) a money pit at worse.

When you have to tempt buyers who have little money, the prices will collapse.

Edited by LiveinHope

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Ah yes I think you are Altrincham/Hale also? I'm watching what is available around the 200-260k mark recently and there isn't much. I'm loathed to buy somewhere that a developer has had their hands on because that isn't what I want really. I just have enough cash now for that sort of range but would be in a better position towards the end of the year. I'm probably just going to have to accept getting shafted by our dysfunctional property market.

No; used to be a target area, but I've given up on buying there (even into a HPC) - so I am not competition for you now, or into HPC. Set my sights slightly lower now, tracking other areas further out into South Manchester. I'm not prepared to waste my savings-position against these house prices yet... not willing to accept it. I'll wait till there are fewer buyers, even against low-rate mortgage offers vs these prices.

The tiny b street terraces now seem to be about the 250k mark.

I despair and feel shafted.

Could buy a flat in Altrincham area now but the prospect depressed me to ******.

I'd try and buy a terrace now say 250k-300k but my job is really precarious right now. I work in oil and the price has crashed.

Let's remain positive, for when the market breaks. Despite this RM Asking Price puff-piece, there appears to be some softening, some seller pressures, around London way. Half of all existing residential mortgagees are on the SVR of around 4%. Higher value lending tightening, although some easing for lower value housing (95% mortgages).

Hi everyone, I'm a long time lurker, been following the site since I arrived in London as a student and then in the early years of my career.

It's quite plain that we are right now in the middle of a profound and severe house price crash. It started in Q3 2014, and its epicentre is high value SOTR 'period' and new build property, mostly around nine elms and the surrounding areas.

Let's be very clear about where we are.

1. The crash may only manifest itself generally after the election. The election will be blamed for the 'instability' but in truth we know for a fact that high end LONDON property began tanking six months previously.

2. Mortgage credit drought is only at most only part of the problem. The issue is not simply that people cannot obtain secured finance without lying about their income or the purpose of their loan (eg a BTL loan which is lived in by the borrower). The issue is that there is too much supply at the high end. Only 4000 properties have ever sold in London for more than £1million. Yet 50000 new build flats (including sold off plan) are intended for that price point. There is not a shortage of houses to buy. In contrast, there is a supply glut. And for the MSM's point that it is a 'simple case of supply and demand', planning rules and lack of speculative returns prevent the construction of 'affordable' homes. As ever, if you can't afford to buy a house, you can't afford to buy a house.

3. An alternative source of blame could be the Euro. Insofar as capital flight to 'safe' high end property is a source of continued demand, it might be thought that a Euro collapse / black swan event like Greece leaving would be beneficial. This is not the case. The big money is already here: UK prices should be deflating nicely alongside Eurozone ones.

In short, my view on nominal prices over the next parliament:

- 15% drop (happening already since Q3 2014)

- 75% drop over three to five years

When London blows, it will blow big.

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No; used to be a target area, but I've given up on buying there (even into a HPC) - so I am not competition for you now, or into HPC. Set my sights slightly lower now, tracking other areas further out into South Manchester. I'm not prepared to waste my savings-position against these house prices yet... not willing to accept it. I'll wait till there are fewer buyers, even against low-rate mortgage offers vs these prices.

I might just accept it later in the year or early 2016. At least the state can't confiscate my house or blast it away with the printing presses. God I'm thinking like a peasant where the only wealth is land lol (like us al).

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Can't afford to move. Most people I guess trade up ... extra bedroom etc. An extra bedroom used to cost say 1x salary and it now costs 2x salary so they could not get the extra mortgage as 'salary' has not increased and the transaction costs are high, on a 300k property it will cost 10k in stamp duty alone.

Exactly this.

We bought our first home in 2003 for £130k.

We are still in that house. The next rung up the ladder is about £200k more than our house would sell for. That is a lot to pay for a spare bedroom, a private drive and a bigger kitchen.

The type of house we'd actually like to live in (e.g detached homes with decent gardens) is about £600k more than our house would sell for.

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While owners hold on, more and more of the younger generation denied 'owning' will lead alternative lifestyles and come to realise over time that owning a home and being tied to it is, at best

i) either a hindrance or not the ultimate goal in life or,

ii) a money pit at worse.

When you have to tempt buyers who have little money, the prices will collapse.

So true. It's not like all renters are on the edge of buying and are just waiting for prices. Younger people emigrate or get used to money management with renting and having decent savings and not having a huge debt over their head. When that becomes a lifestyle, it's hard to ask them to enter into debt even if they can. Furthermore, I think the younger generations realise house prices are running out of steam - buying near or at the top isn't financially sensible.

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1. Can't afford to step up.

2. Can't afford the moving cost to move sideways or downsize,

3. BTL landlords buying long-term for income and capital growth so removing housing stock from the market completely for long periods of time.

4. Many empty properties that were bought to store value, no income required, used as holiday lets and city breaks for friends and family at home and abroad.

I think this is all true - especially 1. - along with (as someone else mentioned) the "new normal" of not selling your old place when moving. I now at least 3 couples who have done this in the last 2 years, and I'd never really heard of it before. The idea that property is too precious and transaction costs too high to make it worth selling. Why would you, when the rent covers the mortgage and prices only go up? It's actually not that stupid an idea given that you avoid transaction costs and a certain amount of hassle, but of course its limited to those with a lot of equity and the means to take on another mortgage. Not sure what the CGT implications are either further down the track..

I think one side-effect of this is that - maybe - when prices are seen to be falling & acknowledged as such, there might be a bigger influx of these types of property for sale. Or maybe it really is a structural change - I'm less optimistic than I ever used to be about seeing sane prices in the next decade.

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One interesting thing with this wide reporting of the Rightmove index is that they actally highlight the 'asking' part of it, which before has been buried in the text more, maybe the MSM are becoming more wary of this index?

Now they just need to highlight 'initial asking price' and that would be spiffing.

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One interesting thing with this wide reporting of the Rightmove index is that they actally highlight the 'asking' part of it, which before has been buried in the text more, maybe the MSM are becoming more wary of this index?

Now they just need to highlight 'initial asking price' and that would be spiffing.

As I've pointed out on another thread...

The BBC business live feed http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-32352986 has as the top headline Key Point (of which there are three) "Asking prices for homes in England and Wales more than £100,000 higher than selling prices"

and then these two entries:

15:09 House price delusion?

Earlier we told you that the property website Rightmove had claimed that the average asking price, for a home up for sale in England and Wales, has now reached £286,133. So what? Well, the Land Registry told us last month that in February (the most recent data) the average sale price in England and Wales was more than £100,000 less, at a mere £180,252. That must mean that tens of thousands of homes are on the market with no real prospect of a sale, because they are just too expensive

15:52 House price delusion?

Hannah Maundrell of the price comparison service money.co.uk shares my view. "Homeowners may need to "get real" if they want to shift their property any time soon," she says. "There seems to be a clear discrepancy between average asking prices and actual sale amounts agreed. It seems that sellers may need to adjust both their expectations and asking price if they want to find a buyer without a big wait."

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Anyone have any theories regarding why supply (house on the market) isn't forthcoming?

BTLers don't sell often.

Cost of servicing old mortgages is now so cheap that many people don't bother to sell previous place when they move. They just become "amateur" landlords.

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Near me there are several empty properties which are nearly brand new and very habitable. One is now up fior sale after a year being empty. No-one is rushing to buy it. There is no shortage of houses. They are just too expensive. Maybe people should take up squatting again as was common in the 70s. That would soon stop people leaving good housing lying empty.

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Near me there are several empty properties which are nearly brand new and very habitable. One is now up fior sale after a year being empty. No-one is rushing to buy it. There is no shortage of houses. They are just too expensive. Maybe people should take up squatting again as was common in the 70s. That would soon stop people leaving good housing lying empty.

Trouble is, squatting was made a criminal offence in 2012 (previously it was a civil offence).

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BTLers don't sell often.

Cost of servicing old mortgages is now so cheap that many people don't bother to sell previous place when they move. They just become "amateur" landlords.

This is true..... until they realise it's not the walk in the park they thought it was.

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