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R K

The Economists' Manifesto - Ft Article Tim Harford

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/7da2852c-e3af-11e4-9a82-00144feab7de.html

Can't post content but I think the article is free to view (not paywall or subs). Apols if it ain't.

A selection of economistics say what policies they would implement if we had a technocratic govt.

Includes Barker with options for housing including to:

1. Do nothing - status quo (result = higher real house prices)

2. Build a load more houses (to meet her 2003 Barker Review target of 245k p.a)

2. Change tax system - replace council tax with LVT & capital gains tax on primary residence

Some other interesting ideas, including Wren-Lewis with his "democratic helicopter money", Van Reenen on infrastructure including housing, Coyle on companies forced to publish ratios of director earnings to median company salaries and so on.....

Nothing new especially but nonetheless worth a scan.

Edited by R K

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Mainly pretty uninspiring ideas revolving around fiddling about with the current system, tax and house prices etc, that has so failed the UK for decades.

It would likely cause people to panic if they ever came up with any ideas outside of the usual corral.

Edited by billybong

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Mainly pretty uninspiring ideas revolving around fiddling about with the current system, tax and house prices etc, that has so failed the UK for decades.

It would likely cause people to panic if they ever came up with any ideas outside of the usual corral.

Mainstream economists have nothing material to contribute to the debate since their static equilibrium models can't even approximate how real markets and economies behave.

Garbage in, garbage out.

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Mainly pretty uninspiring ideas revolving around fiddling about with the current system, tax and house prices etc, that has so failed the UK for decades.

It would likely cause people to panic if they ever came up with any ideas outside of the usual corral.

Really?

Building out something like 15 Ebsfleets per year for 10 years?

Replacing council tax with LVT?

Capital gains taxes on primary residences which would in particular tax unearned gains in the South/SE/London?

You think these are fiddling?

So what policies would you propose?

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Mainstream economists have nothing material to contribute to the debate since their static equilibrium models can't even approximate how real markets and economies behave.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Enunciate your proposals Zugzwang.

Specifically re the housing crisis would be helpful. Based upon your Steve Keen model for the economy if you wish.

Just saying everything is rubbish isn't really a solution to anything is it.

Edited by R K

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Really?

Building out something like 15 Ebsfleets per year for 10 years?

Replacing council tax with LVT?

Capital gains taxes on primary residences which would in particular tax unearned gains in the South/SE/London?

You think these are fiddling?

So what policies would you propose?

It's incomplete. They aren't new ideas. Similar have been around for decades and they might not be bad ideas in themselves and for sure the house price situation needs to be sorted out but there's nothing particularly original in those proposals for the overall economy. They've been suggested already of by plenty of people who aren't called economists and not received the media attention or spread - apart from never being implemented.

They might have mentioned attempting to move away from obsession with the financial sector etc and that would have been a start.

Edited by billybong

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Id even be happy if with option 1 if the "nothing" part was taken literally.

If by 'do nothing' they mean withdraw all support from the banks, end any and all QE/other 'stimulus' measures, etc etc then I agree.

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not

Enunciate your proposals Zugzwang.

Specifically re the housing crisis would be helpful. Based upon your Steve Keen model for the economy if you will

Just saying everything is rubbish isn't really a solution to anything is it.

You're missing the point. I've no idea whether an LVT would be more equitable than the council tax. Or whether building 15 Ebbsfleets makes more economic sense than building 5, or building none at all. Moreover, none of the economists quoted in that article do either. Without a zeroth-order empirically falsifiable model of the macroeconomy they're just composing laundry lists in a Corpus Hermeticum. Actually, it's worse than that. The mainstream economists' equilibrium formalisms have been comprehensively falsified, both empirically and theoretically. What's missing is the really hard work. Making equations to fit the data and not the other way round. Not even an economic outsider like Steve Keen can do that yet, though he's probably closer to that goal than anybody else. Keen's principal insight, obtained via Minsky, is that private sector debt is the most significant determinant of economic crisis. Keeping a tight rein on private sector borrowing is absolutely imperative - an analysis you broadly share, I think - and something Osborne has failed conspicuously to do, as Brown failed before him.

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