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pipllman

Hoisington Q12015 On Indebted Economies And What's Next

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You should definitely read it

Basically: Too much debt is bad for an economy. It was in Hume's paper in 1752, it was in the 1830's, the 1860's, the 1920's and it is today. Now that isn't rocket science, but why do today's political and economic leadership find it so hard to grasp?

Five pages of beautiful analysis and interpretation of the US economy by the very wise Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2015Q1NP.pdf

The investment conclusion: ...the environment for holding long-term Treasury bond positions should be most favorable in 2015.

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Who's Hoisington?

And more to the point, after googling them, they're a bond investment dealer, and they're saying buy bonds

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Interesting and some interesting charts


As a general rule the growth rate was above the average during economic expansions and lower than the average in recessions.

(Referring to the Nonfarm Business Sector: Productivity chart)

In that case from the relevant chart it suggests that the economy was in recession from about 1979 until 2000 apart from a couple of short periods each of about 1 or 2 years (about 1987 and 1992).

It's also interesting from the Velocity chart that velocity has been in continual decline from the mid 90s and to date.

For sure the UK economy is likely to be in even worse shape.

Edited by billybong

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Who's Hoisington?

And more to the point, after googling them, they're a bond investment dealer, and they're saying buy bonds

It is probably best that you totally ignore this and all their other quarterly reviews and outlooks then

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