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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32332201

UK house price pick-up worrying, say surveyors

House prices in most areas of the UK outside London and the North are still rising, according to a poll of property surveyors.

In what they call a "worrying" trend, many of them expect house prices to continue rising over the next year.

Members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said demand for flats and houses was currently outweighing supply.

A net balance of 21% of surveyors reported prices up in March.

In other words, those recording prices increases outnumbered those recording falls by nearly a quarter.

The surveyors were even more confident that prices will rise over the next year.

Simon Rubinsohn, Rics' chief economist, said activity in the housing market was falling back.

"Even more worrying are the tentative signs that price momentum could be set to pick up once again, as the supply of stock to the market continues to fall," he said.

"It is significant that price expectations nationally are accelerating both at the three and twelve-month time horizons, and at the latter, they are at their highest level since the spring of last year."

In its most recent report, the Halifax said that prices in the UK rose by 0.4% in March, after falling by 0.3% in February.

Interesting story from the BBC (mainly because its even on the BBC)

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"Even more worrying are the tentative signs that price momentum could be set to pick up once again, as the supply of stock to the market continues to fall," he said

According to the Conservatives and the Libdems who support them in coalition price increases are supposed to mean more stock. Another (apparent) policy failure.

Edited by billybong

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They worry its not rising fast enough...

From the RICS website

http://www.rics.org/uk/news/news-insight/press-releases/supply-constraints-and-pre-election-uncertainty-stalls-buyers-/

Opinion piece (presumably) from Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, entitled "The view from RICS"

"The boost that was given to the housing market by the Help to Buy scheme has begun to dissipate and activity levels have slipped back.

Even more worrying are the tentative signs that price momentum could be set to pick up once again as the supply of stock to the market continues to fall. Anecdotal evidence does suggest that election uncertainty may be having some impact on the market, but underlying the trends visible in the latest survey is a very real housing crisis which will urgently need to be addressed by the next government.

It is significant that price expectations nationally are accelerating both at the three and twelve month time horizons and at the latter they are at their highest level since the spring of last year."

My bold and italics.

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ahh so all those houses round mine which arent selling and havent sold for a year are all increasing in value, well done those economists and politicians

I really ******ed up by not buying any of them last year :)

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Prices may be rising but it does come down to purchasing power at the end of the day. If prices of a given commodity are rising and your salary remains virtually the same, your purchasing power diminishes - basic inflation stuff.

However...

Not the same exact case for foreign nationals who's currency trades increasingly better than the sterling.

Make note of the traitor US gang - after years of draining Middle East's resources in an attempt to quash their own financial misadventures, they now have mustered sufficient capital to pump up their currency (which trades better and better against the sterling with each passing day). As a result, it won't surprise me least bit if we observe a wave of US land and property acquisitions and, mind you, a strong foreign presence in 'land and property' department is never a good thing.

Can't hurt to hope for reversal of these economic trends I guess...

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Now a clarification is needed here, I am not just talking about flats and houses (which will also be purchased rather en mass). The more disturbing factor will be bigger land acquisitions and corporation merges. As US economy thrives, it is likely they will opt for investment strategies in UK and Europe as a safety net against future economic and financial crises. Looking back in history, the latter tends to happen more and more often so prep up for the next one in about a decade and purchase property THEN, when prices will fall like autumn leaves.

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Make note of the traitor US gang - after years of draining Middle East's resources in an attempt to quash their own financial misadventures, they now have mustered sufficient capital to pump up their currency (which trades better and better against the sterling with each passing day). As a result, it won't surprise me least bit if we observe a wave of US land and property acquisitions and, mind you, a strong foreign presence in 'land and property' department is never a good thing.

Can't hurt to hope for reversal of these economic trends I guess...

Now a clarification is needed here, I am not just talking about flats and houses (which will also be purchased rather en mass). The more disturbing factor will be bigger land acquisitions and corporation merges. As US economy thrives, it is likely they will opt for investment strategies in UK and Europe as a safety net against future economic and financial crises. Looking back in history, the latter tends to happen more and more often so prep up for the next one in about a decade and purchase property THEN, when prices will fall like autumn leaves.

I have considered that on a few occasions before - and I'm sure smarter ppl done so before me - US QE's itself (and there are still many hoping for a HPC in US prime housing.. same imbalances between generations as here)... issues loads of emerging debt post-2008... dollar hardens which is like a big interest rate jump for borrowers in emerging economies... or just other countries overwhelmed by US QE'd position... and they buy up Rest Of The World cheap, to smooth out their own position over the longer term. Sucks.

Was lifted a bit by story below setting out a bit of that theory, but where 3 earlier US hedge funds, were at risk of having their positions destroyed by an even bigger US hedge fund. So market still works.. winners and losers. Also something has to give... maybe I'll believe it can work for UK housing (US position) when we're getting ever more US nationals working/living and buying/renting here. Not an option for many in the US, where it's all still coming down hard on younger 20s-30 US productive professional workers* (*with some exceptions.. bankers/IT.. many who've bought in to US prime at very high prices lately enticed into the bubble around SoCal).

Market conditions... even with US buying up on the cheap... the companies still need to leave sufficient numbers of people to buy their goods at certain prices and pay rents... there is some limitation on how far they can take it... without leaving themselves exposed to a competitor wolf.

Towergate looks like it is having some financial issues, again - (fall in profits, large debts.. creditors owed £1billion+, and ye-olde 'irrelevant' liquidity) - but with some intrigue, as it puts vulture fund against vulture fund, and possibly shakes up some of the older participants who've been around from the beginning.

Some of my recent fears has been US firms buying up global trophy assets, with QE reflated US money, to rebalance the US position over the longer term at expense of Rest of The World, money/profits flowing back to US companies - but it seems here some existing US firms may have gotten themselves a bit stuck with their previous involvement.

Just flicking through Sunday Times.. 28.12.2014

AN AGGRESSIVE New York buyout first has launched a bid for control of Towergate, opening a new front in the battle over the beleaguered insurance broker. Towergate, based in Kent, and employs 5,000 people, put itself up for sale last month after a catastrophic drop in profits.

Basically goes on to how there is now a scramble of positions going on, between creditors who've already taken positions in the company... 'stiff resistance expected from 3 US vulture funds'... names them... 'which bought £304m in junior loans that would probably get written off in a takeover'.. and new potential suitors looking to buy 'on the cheap'.

One other large US vulture fund already taken position buying senior loans (thus senior creditor), which could put it in a position to wipe out shareholders and junior lenders, if they move forward to buying in further on a debt-for-equity swap.

Cullen again mentioned... founded the business in 1997, 'buying dozens of regional brokers', not rich enough yet? 'Among those who stand to lose out is founder and deputy chairman Peter Cullum.. much of whose £450m net worth tied up in Towergate'. (Did the takeover of Charcol not add great value?). Advant International, private equity firm, has a majority stake (bought in 2010 it seems). Other bids in the works, and 'Cullum working on a rival management buyout.'

In contrast US banks have begun to rave about recovery. They love the debt they have issued.

Could be a strategic plan..maybe they like it that way, with US powering up. Allowing them to pick up European assets at distressed values to come. Maybe US will force the issue in Londonium/UK.

Taper + followed by a rate rise, may see more money flow to US, to lend to its companies, with perhaps some desire to put financial and political pressure on Europe to accept hard-austerity, to cut the funny business with HTB2 ect, to rigidly stick to new agreed banking rules... so as to pick up trophy assets cheap, or issue new fresh debt on them for investors. Maybe even liberating UK house prices for younger people in the process.

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Now a clarification is needed here, I am not just talking about flats and houses (which will also be purchased rather en mass).

And even top-flight professionals, older professionals, astonished by London rental prices, even as they were in 2012....

When writing the blog entry below this guy was (still is?) Chief Counsel – Litigation and Global Chief Compliance Officer at Aon, the world’s leading provider of risk management services, insurance and reinsurance brokerage, and human capital and management consulting - already with a distinguished career that has seen him act for top firms in many high value litigation matters, at quite a few of the biggest international firms - top level litigator. Him finding the rents/costs in London hard to stomach..... there has to be some limitation... even for your future US pumped-up with money firms... maybe they'll want to buy at lower prices... and to do that you need to drive/allow wider market prices to fall... allowing opportunity for those of us who are prepared.

[..]goes on to explain that what he’s paying for his new gaff is “ten times what you’ll pay for great space in Chicago and something like three times what you’ll pay for nice space in New York.”

Oct 11, 2012

“Senior partners at major London law firms can’t afford to live! Well, not quite: But senior partners at many major London law firms can’t afford to live in London itself…

“Twenty years ago, the senior partners at most big law firms lived in London. But today, unless you have inherited wealth or bought your home long ago, most senior partners at London firms can’t afford to live anywhere near the City. Partner pay just won’t cover the cost.”

..“From an American’s perspective, everything in London is nauseatingly expensive (or ‘quite dear,’ as the locals so quaintly put it). But the cost of housing goes far beyond ‘nauseatingly expensive’; it’s eye-poppingly, grab-your-chest-and-drop-to-the-ground, out of sight. It leaves partner pay in the dust”

http://abovethelaw.com/2012/10/inside-straight-london-partners-cant-afford-homes/

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But today, unless you have inherited wealth or bought your home long ago, most senior partners at London firms can’t afford to live anywhere near the City. Partner pay just won’t cover the cost.”

Even they can't fund £600,000 for a basic 1 bed flat.

Edited by billybong

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