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Ride_on

Upturn 2015

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Well the upturn is definately in there and some are saying its all over. I am still sceptical and hopeful that prices will continue down to a more sustainable level. I feel the economic requirements have been put off in NI. Another crash anyone?

NI dependancy on Public sector - This is being slowly adjusted, fairly quietly IMO, but rightly so in many areas. Redundancy payments have cushioned the economic effects for now. Will be more pressure in future.

NI Benefits reform - Been put off a few more years, will hit LLs

NI Water charges - Still on the table (more public sector jobs?)

FTB age - Still in 30's probably increasing, renting culture increasing

Energy costs - oil price low, long term increase.

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I think if you look at the evidence it is clear that there has been a sustained increase in house prices in Northern Ireland over the past year or so. In those simple terms the 'crash' is over and the readjustment in prices has already happened. How long will this last is anybody's guess but I would suggest that we could easily see a continued gradual increase in prices over the next few years however as you pointed out there are many things that could affect this both positively and negatively. I do not think there is any reason to be skeptical now about there being some form of upturn in relation to HPC, the evidence is there that this is occurring. The bottom of the re-adjustment or 'crash' seems to have hit around 2012/13. We still have a long way to go (if we ever see it) before the prices go near the ridiculous levels they had been at the top of the boom.

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The Banks are offering irresponsible money. I've recently made an enquiry and was shocked (and saddened) at the maximum money being made available. MMR seems to have been a complete write off and the lack of demand for mortgages UK wide is encouraging the banks offer more and more to tempt people in to buy a loan.

Anyone who has a 25% deposit is able to access rates of 2.5% for a five year fix. You have to say this is a good deal if you feel a house is affordable. I reckon this would bring monthly payments in line with or lower than renting in many cases.

While this continues, demand will grow and sales (and likely prices) will increase.

In the area I am looking, there does appear to be good value and suply at the bottom end. Once you move up to family sized homes there is still a chronic lack of supply particularly of houses that don't require modernisation. What did worry me about the article today was the mention of panic buying. People are clearly going crazy out there and on several occasions are offering asking price on the first offer......Madness

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The Banks are offering irresponsible money. I've recently made an enquiry and was shocked (and saddened) at the maximum money being made available. MMR seems to have been a complete write off and the lack of demand for mortgages UK wide is encouraging the banks offer more and more to tempt people in to buy a loan.

Anyone who has a 25% deposit is able to access rates of 2.5% for a five year fix. You have to say this is a good deal if you feel a house is affordable. I reckon this would bring monthly payments in line with or lower than renting in many cases.

While this continues, demand will grow and sales (and likely prices) will increase.

In the area I am looking, there does appear to be good value and suply at the bottom end. Once you move up to family sized homes there is still a chronic lack of supply particularly of houses that don't require modernisation. What did worry me about the article today was the mention of panic buying. People are clearly going crazy out there and on several occasions are offering asking price on the first offer......Madness

Yep, 5 times joint is widely available.

I shocked at the amount I am able to borrow.

It's like pcp car deals, people only see the monthly payments today.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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Yep, 5 times joint is widely available.

I shocked at the amount I am able to borrow.

It's like pcp car deals, people only see the monthly payments today.

The banks are the real game changer there is no doubt about it.

If people can access the credit they often take it as we saw in the boom years.

The only game changers I can see out there are some of the ones being discussed on the main board.

Deflation becoming a persistent reality.

A crash in London, SE - causing another credit crunch.

Some other black swan event.....

A significant move upwards in interest rates.

However we could be here in 2020 still wondering if any of the above will happen.

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There's deflation in certain goods but not in housing as the main political parties continue to pump HP's.

A crash in London may cause a CC BUT HP's in NI & north of London will be deemed as 'reasonable risk'.

IR's will not move up 'significantly' until 2020 at least.

A black swan is always a possibility... but it is always a possibility.

There seems to be a 'properly' functioning market in NI at the minute..... All in my humble opinion of course.

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There's deflation in certain goods but not in housing as the main political parties continue to pump HP's.

A crash in London may cause a CC BUT HP's in NI & north of London will be deemed as 'reasonable risk'.

IR's will not move up 'significantly' until 2020 at least.

A black swan is always a possibility... but it is always a possibility.

There seems to be a 'properly' functioning market in NI at the minute..... All in my humble opinion of course.

Sales are happening, I wouldn't call it properly functioning though. 0.5% interest rate, 800 HTB and 1400 coownership transactions, 5 times joint lending multiples. I'd say it's very much dysfunctional. Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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Sales are happening, I wouldn't call it properly functioning though. 0.5% interest rate, 800 HTB and 1400 coownership transactions, 5 times joint lending multiples. I'd say it's very much dysfunctional.

Those sitting on the sidelines will eventually 'capitulate'. 5year fix @1.99% announced by HSBC today.... granted a 40% deposit required but it will be viewed as a more favourable option to renting by many. HP's are still at 2005 levels. Low IR's make purchasing more than sensible at the minute.

All in my humble opinion of course.

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Those sitting on the sidelines will eventually 'capitulate'. 5year fix @1.99% announced by HSBC today.... granted a 40% deposit required but it will be viewed as a more favourable option to renting by many. HP's are still at 2005 levels. Low IR's make purchasing more than sensible at the minute.

All in my humble opinion of course.

Not many with 40% deposits,certainly not of the FTB renter variety. Fewer with any possibility of getting selected for a HSBC mortgage.

Wonder what the average term is now for FTB. Probably over 30 years.

I'll be honest, I'm considering a HSBC interest only.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy

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Not many with 40% deposits,certainly not of the FTB renter variety. Fewer with any possibility of getting selected for a HSBC mortgage.

Wonder what the average term is now for FTB. Probably over 30 years.

I'll be honest, I'm considering a HSBC interest only.

A lot of 'potential' money with 20,000 civil service jobs going... Bank of mum & dad might want to park some of the redundancy money somewhere 'safe' while helping out their sprogs they also get their own house back but it lends support to HP's in the short term...... just a thought.

If the immediate monthly payments are manageable at current IRs & what % of the purchase sum are you likely to lose compared to a possible drop in the next 5 yrs ?

HSBC offering such a low fix for 5 years suggests to me they're not expecting a rate rise until 2020.... just another thought.

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A lot of 'potential' money with 20,000 civil service jobs going... Bank of mum & dad might want to park some of the redundancy money somewhere 'safe' while helping out their sprogs they also get their own house back but it lends support to HP's in the short term...... just a thought.

If the immediate monthly payments are manageable at current IRs & what % of the purchase sum are you likely to lose compared to a possible drop in the next 5 yrs ?

HSBC offering such a low fix for 5 years suggests to me they're not expecting a rate rise until 2020.... just another thought.

Not expecting IR rises and have priced a 40% drop in house prices??

Civil service redundancy capped at something like 100k, a 40% deposit will eat into that massively. It's really only a competitive rate for large mortgages (there's a £1500 fee).

HSBC are without doubt one of the "pickiest" lenders. Very tight lending multiples, a BOMAD deposit making it through underwriting could be problematic.

They really aren't pitching towards people who need mummy to help them out.

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I should have bought in 2012/2013. I f*cked up. After all these years on HPC, I missed the bottom.

I can't believe the prices I'm seeing for apartments and houses in central/south Belfast now. Eye watering prices, and most of the places are either small or old and would therefore need alot of money to keep maintained over the years.

Very depressing. Gutted.

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I should have bought in 2012/2013. I f*cked up. After all these years on HPC, I missed the bottom.

I can't believe the prices I'm seeing for apartments and houses in central/south Belfast now. Eye watering prices, and most of the places are either small or old and would therefore need alot of money to keep maintained over the years.

Very depressing. Gutted.

Are you really seeing movement in apartment prices?

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The absolute bottom isn't significantly off today at least here outside of Belfast, we sold in 2013 and wouldn't really expect getting much if anything more if selling now. 2013/14 was spent actively looking for somewhere while renting in-between and asides from a couple of repossessions that might have been dodgy there wasn't much screaming bargain compared to today with the one or two quality places selling at a premium and the junk languishing.

As mentioned on here before there was a quite long period where plenty of people that didn't get caught up in the insanity were sitting waiting on the drops to stop, including plenty of us on here, 5 or so years of restraint from those that can afford things at these prices/rates might be giving a bump from the recent bottom?

Hope we're sensible enough to avoid stupid stuff again, long term flat lining to let incomes catch up would be my second choice with the preference being having the drop continuing back to sensible local levels but I think that's going to need something to stimulate it.

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I should have bought in 2012/2013. I f*cked up. After all these years on HPC, I missed the bottom.

I can't believe the prices I'm seeing for apartments and houses in central/south Belfast now. Eye watering prices, and most of the places are either small or old and would therefore need alot of money to keep maintained over the years.

Very depressing. Gutted.

Are they selling?

There's still a lot of properties going on clearly overpriced even in the current market. Perhaps these new vendors still need to adjust to the new level of sales.

I'm still seeing reductions on some of these properties. Some are significant others are not enough to tempt you in for a viewing.

Edited by Bergy100

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Are they selling?

There's still a lot of properties going on clearly overpriced even in the current market. Perhaps these new vendors still need to adjust to the new level of sales.

I'm still seeing reductions on some of these properties. Some are significant others are not enough to tempt you in for a viewing.

Have noticed a bit of this, a fully modernised house in the best location/site in an area sells quickly at a decent price, then other nearby houses in bad locations/sites needing modernised come up for sale near this price and unsurprisingly don't sell.

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Have noticed a bit of this, a fully modernised house in the best location/site in an area sells quickly at a decent price, then other nearby houses in bad locations/sites needing modernised come up for sale near this price and unsurprisingly don't sell.

Anything that is "decently" priced and needs no work is flying off the shelf as far as I can see.

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