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duffbear

Ons Feb Hp Index Out Now - Can Anyone Make Sense Of This?

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London figs ('cos I is there innit)

Sept 13 - Sept 14 HPI is 18.8%

Oct 13 - Nov 14 HPI is 17.2%

Nov 13 - Nov 14 HPI is 15.3%

Dec 13 - Dec 14 HPI is 13.3%

Jan 14 - Jan 15 HPI is 13%

Feb 14 - Feb 15 HPI is 9.4%

So - despite the ramping in the press, it seems as if London prices have fallen 9.4 % since September (ie from 18.8% to 9.4%). Of course, I'm not a statistician, so I could be wrong but ye gods, these are the Govt's own figs, not some wretched house flogging site!

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hpi/house-price-index/february-2015/stb-february-2015.html#tab-House-price-index-by-region

Now, what's confusing me hugely ('cos I'm not a statistician etcetcetc), we get these actual figs:

In September 2014, London continued to be the English region with the highest average house price at £508,000

In February 2015, London continued to be the English region with the highest average house price at £490,000

IF prices have fallen by 9.4% then surely the Feb price should be £460,000 (rounded up)

Where am I going wrong?

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London figs ('cos I is there innit)

Sept 13 - Sept 14 HPI is 18.8%

Oct 13 - Nov 14 HPI is 17.2%

Nov 13 - Nov 14 HPI is 15.3%

Dec 13 - Dec 14 HPI is 13.3%

Jan 14 - Jan 15 HPI is 13%

Feb 14 - Feb 15 HPI is 9.4%

So - despite the ramping in the press, it seems as if London prices have fallen 9.4 % since September (ie from 18.8% to 9.4%). Of course, I'm not a statistician, so I could be wrong but ye gods, these are the Govt's own figs, not some wretched house flogging site!

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/hpi/house-price-index/february-2015/stb-february-2015.html#tab-House-price-index-by-region

Now, what's confusing me hugely ('cos I'm not a statistician etcetcetc), we get these actual figs:

In September 2014, London continued to be the English region with the highest average house price at £508,000

In February 2015, London continued to be the English region with the highest average house price at £490,000

IF prices have fallen by 9.4% then surely the Feb price should be £460,000 (rounded up)

Where am I going wrong?

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It doesn't necessarily imply that prices have fallen at all - just that the increase YoY is now 9%, rather than the 18% it was last september. I.e. prices rose 9% between now and last Feb, and 18% between last Sept and Sept 2013. e.g. if 9% of the september rise was between feb-sep 2014, then prices could be flat until now and we'd still see the 9% YoY figure. I don't know what the actual numbers are, month on month.

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as written above, this data set is based on a year on year basis meaning that it has to be taken with a pinch of salt as the results are diluted with performances of past months.

it will be interesting to see how this index perform when we ll reach June/July as it is considered the peak of 2014 at least in London.

Media reactions should be fairly entertaining.

Maybe they ll resort to use longer period index :lol:

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It doesn't necessarily imply that prices have fallen at all - just that the increase YoY is now 9%, rather than the 18% it was last september. I.e. prices rose 9% between now and last Feb, and 18% between last Sept and Sept 2013. e.g. if 9% of the september rise was between feb-sep 2014, then prices could be flat until now and we'd still see the 9% YoY figure. I don't know what the actual numbers are, month on month.

The rate of increase is still exponential!

100% + 18% = 118% = + 18%

118% + 9% = 129% = + 11%

Always watch that, works on they way up and way down as the in/de-flation compounds, so 9% increase on top of 18% is bigger than is sounds in real money. The headline rate could slow from 18% to 15% this year and the real monetary increase would exceed last years.

I still reckon London could easily crash between 50% and 75% if BRICS force up interest rates to around 3%.

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