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Gilts Strike As Foreigners Shun Uk On Gridlock Fears

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The bid-to-cover ratio at gilt auctions has been slipping relentlessly across all maturities for the past nine months, dropping to a six-year low of 1.19 at a sale of five-year debt on Wednesday.

Isnt it the 5 year debt price that dictates mortgage rates?

Is this the beginning of some "Bond Vigilantly" action??

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The bid-to-cover ratio at gilt auctions has been slipping relentlessly across all maturities for the past nine months, dropping to a six-year low of 1.19 at a sale of five-year debt on Wednesday.

Isnt it the 5 year debt price that dictates mortgage rates?

Is this the beginning of some "Bond Vigilantly" action??

Either the bond vigilantes have finally woken up, or the banksters are trying to scare the electorate into voting Tory.

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Either the bond vigilantes have finally woken up, or the banksters are trying to scare the electorate into voting Tory.

Its the Telegraph. The election is slipping away.

Barclay bros ring up their mates and tell them to tell AEP the mytical bond vigilantes have gone on strike, Ed Miliband is a communist Sturgeon will control the UK post election and if you dont vote Tory the world will end.

Telegraph journos following the Tory party line.

Re-run of the Scottish ref scare stories. Quite pathetic that someone like AEP & Oborne before him are told to print this sort of sh1te.

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Its the Telegraph. The election is slipping away.

Barclay bros ring up their mates and tell them to tell AEP the mytical bond vigilantes have gone on strike, Ed Miliband is a communist Sturgeon will control the UK post election and if you dont vote Tory the world will end.

Telegraph journos following the Tory party line.

Re-run of the Scottish ref scare stories. Quite pathetic that someone like AEP & Oborne before him are told to print this sort of sh1te.

Agree completely. The media have suddenly taken fright at the latest polls which show Milliband with higher personal ratings than Cameron and Labour with a small lead.

I would expect the anti-labour/scare stories to get worse and worse as they panic more.

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Agree completely. The media have suddenly taken fright at the latest polls which show Milliband with higher personal ratings than Cameron and Labour with a small lead.

I would expect the anti-labour/scare stories to get worse and worse as they panic more.

Theyre pretty extreme already. Youre spot on though - Fallon's personal attack on Miliband yesterday over Trident was astonishing, followed up by a Telegraph front page article on Miliband sh4gging Stephanie Flanders over 10 years ago or something, and AEP with his made up story over bond vigilantes.

Dread to think what they'll dream up as we get closer. Quite depressing that issues are apparently not even on the agenda any longer - just streams of invective and personal attacks. I guess the Barclay bros and the Tory hedge funds have got some rather large bets riding on keeping Miliband out. It cant just be over a few quid's worth of mansion taxes.

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Agree completely. The media have suddenly taken fright at the latest polls which show Milliband with higher personal ratings than Cameron and Labour with a small lead.

I would expect the anti-labour/scare stories to get worse and worse as they panic more.

The Equity Market meanwhile still sanguine, the FTSE 100 trading only 17 points off an all time high this morning. Not that I have completely abandoned the Market, whom am I to challenge the wisdom of the Market, presumably the economic terrorism that politicians from all sides are about to unleash on UK plc is priced in.

The fact that we tried to keep the UK together last years seems like a big mistake now. Clearly the SNP are a big problem, rack up the debts and then send the bill to the English when the money runs out and they go independent. And selling more spending to the Milibot won't be difficult, he thinks a 7% structural deficit is austerity.

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The Equity Market meanwhile still sanguine, the FTSE 100 trading only 17 points off an all time high this morning.

Global equity investors will be pretty happy with a red or blue outcome.

Look at how socialist Obama has worked out for equity investors in the states? ;-)

Either party will remain relatively business friendly, in a global context, and will continue to run an unsustainable deficit which the BodE will monetise should things get ugly again. This will ensure the UK economy keeps churning in nominal terms and good companies will still make good profits.

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From the telegraph link


Morgan Stanley expects the pound to fall to $1.38 by the end of the year, with a “bear case scenario” of $1.25. This would be the lowest since the dark days of sterling in 1985, when the Sultan of Brunei allegedly used his oil fortune to avert an embarrassing collapse towards dollar parity as a political favour for Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

Something similar in play with the oil price drop just a few months before the UK's general election to help the UK economy a bit?

The drop is most likely mainly because of weakness in the global economy but the fortuitous timing might have been subject to a little nudge, just maybe.

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When the UK pops it will be 100% correlated with the asset bubbles bursting in Europe, US and Japan.

Maybe we are in the epicentre of the earthquake, but probably not (1 in 4 chance).

Not convinced Equities (UK ones) are as bubbly as other asset classes.

Look at the record since 1999....Gold (sixfold to 2011 and now fourfold) Bonds (threefold) Property (threefold) Equities (same). 1999 not a fair base, granted.

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Theyre pretty extreme already. Youre spot on though - Fallon's personal attack on Miliband yesterday over Trident was astonishing, followed up by a Telegraph front page article on Miliband sh4gging Stephanie Flanders over 10 years ago or something, and AEP with his made up story over bond vigilantes.

Dread to think what they'll dream up as we get closer. Quite depressing that issues are apparently not even on the agenda any longer - just streams of invective and personal attacks. I guess the Barclay bros and the Tory hedge funds have got some rather large bets riding on keeping Miliband out. It cant just be over a few quid's worth of mansion taxes.

I believe many have made their mind up on voting SNP and UKIP, it is about what is happening in their street, their town, powerful VI`s influencing the media won`t count for much this time IMO.

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Agree. Family telling me that plenty of support for SNP and holding up. There are 100,000 foot soldiers (party members) out in every town and city. Pretty hard to combat that - even with the media, tabloids and broadsheets now fired up to trash any uttering from the "opposition". At least in Scotland, this could turn out to be the most significant GE in a generation.

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Not convinced Equities (UK ones) are as bubbly as other asset classes.

Look at the record since 1999....Gold (sixfold to 2011 and now fourfold) Bonds (threefold) Property (threefold) Equities (same). 1999 not a fair base, granted.

Not all equities, just the 100...250 is well above.

Think of the prevalence of financials in the 100...now think how much buy back has occured thanks to QE, and how that will magnify any downward movement. Big loss divided over fewer shares will look particularly nasty.

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Agree. Family telling me that plenty of support for SNP and holding up. There are 100,000 foot soldiers (party members) out in every town and city. Pretty hard to combat that - even with the media, tabloids and broadsheets now fired up to trash any uttering from the "opposition". At least in Scotland, this could turn out to be the most significant GE in a generation.

Does this ever work?

Admittedly being a safe seat there are few canvassers here, but there is something very authoritarian, big brotherish about people coming to your door to talk politics.

Maybe some lonely old folk like it...they come here theyre going to get egged.

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Not all equities, just the 100...250 is well above.

Think of the prevalence of financials in the 100...now think how much buy back has occured thanks to QE, and how that will magnify any downward movement. Big loss divided over fewer shares will look particularly nasty.

You would have had to have the foresight to invest in small companies...FTSE 100 is 81% of Market Cap.

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From the telegraph link

Something similar in play with the oil price drop just a few months before the UK's general election to help the UK economy a bit?

The drop is most likely mainly because of weakness in the global economy but the fortuitous timing might have been subject to a little nudge, just maybe.

I'm not sure the UK govt can do much about sterling. The fx market is much too big to push around. In any case, the UK economy is a basket case! Ultimately. that has to be reflected in exchange rates. At least Carney won't have to keep writing letters of apology to George Osborne.

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Does this ever work?

Admittedly being a safe seat there are few canvassers here, but there is something very authoritarian, big brotherish about people coming to your door to talk politics.

Maybe some lonely old folk like it...they come here theyre going to get egged.

I think it does work. Since the mid-90s, the idea of politicos going on the hustings to constituencies has all but disappeared. I remember the days when Tory grandees like Heseltine, would rock up to Scotland and go on tour and debate in small halls all over the country. They at least showed their faces and were prepared to debate face to face with the public. Since the 90s, the party machines have decided to follow the pollsters and use the media to get the message out. The average voter feels disconnect and the only time any politico shows interest is when their seat is in danger. ie.a marginal. So only a small % of constituencies get the full GE treatment.

With a large membership in Scotland, the SNP seem to be reconnecting with the voters in a way that the Westminster parties are incapable or unwilling to do. The referendum showed there is another way to get the message across and that the public appreciate the human touch. For once, some party is talking and listening to them and their problems ?

And it's not just door to door. In small towns , where before each party had a handful of people in the high st shouting the slogans , with 100,000 people you have dozens in the street creating an atmosphere, organising different events. Kind of like the good old days before the pollsters took over.

I don't have the vote in the UK...but watching the events unfold with the SNP in the last 24mnths has been interesting. I would have luaghed had someone suggested 100,000 members 5 yrs ago.

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Not convinced Equities (UK ones) are as bubbly as other asset classes.

Lots of value in some equity makers globally. Typically all the ones that are 1 or 2 steps removed from a tier 1 central bank who has a penchant for monetary de-basement. The investment case for UK equities from here, sat on peak multiples 7 years into a cycle is predicated on low market interest rates.

However, I was referring to all asset markets not just equities going pop.

There won't be a housing market crash in the UK that isn't correlated with bonds, equities and also that isn't global in nature.

Edited by bankstersparadise

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