Is It Time To Give Up ?

[canbuywontbuy]

All English-speaking countries have housing markets that are the same or worse

I agree. The "usual suspects" for emigration (Canada/Australia) are going through their own economic woes. My target country is Thailand (have spent a lot of time there, own property there). I intend to live over there with a lot of savings + daily income from various online work. I lived in Thailand for 3 years doing just that in the past (saving money while over there), so I know it can work. I am in the UK only for family reasons at the moment.

[madmax2]

as others have said, giving up is not really an option if you stay.. My fear is that when we do crash, there will be enough people desensitised to the sums at play and with free money (made in the last few years of HPI/BTL probably..or even foreign money) to just make it go boom all over again. That is my fear. We may well get our crash, but people have had 15 years to accumulate untold wealth, and to try convince them its going to be different is going to be a mammoth task

Outer London houses at £120k? I'll take 4 thanks.

No, the only option is to opt-out. I'll leave the country, remove myself from this poker table and wherever I end up I dont care as long as house prices are not spoken of ever again.

I am actually sick....honestly...when I hear someone talk about a home, but use the word "property", I have to muster up every ounce of restraint to not shout at them

[TheCountOfNowhere]

I am actually sick....honestly...when I hear someone talk about a home, but use the word "property", I have to muster up every ounce of restraint to not shout at them

Welcome to my world.

This is exactly like 2007 on speed+acid+lsb+coke+heroin+2 bottles of buckfast,

Edited April 9, 2015 by TheCountOfNowhere

[TheCountOfNowhere]

it seems to me that QE has caused the hyper inflation many expected, it's just hyper inflation in the one thing they dont count in the inflation figures....housing.

Is it sustainable.....in a word...not a f**king chance.

[WatchingFromTheHills]

Today's Halifax figures are confusing.

I think all house price indexes are flawed in some way. To be fair, that's usually flagged up by whoever's producing them, but the cumulative effect is that it's very, very difficult to form an opinion on what's actually happening.

That confusion seems to be reflected on the ground.

I posted something last week about an agent in SW London not letting me see a property because I wasn't a cash buyer - or at least "unencumbered", as he put it.

According to him, the market was roaring away and the vendors didn't want to waste their time with anyone who couldn't move quickly.

Lo and behold, he phoned me back this week to ask if I was still looking. The house I was interested in is under offer - he says - although it doesn't say that on his website. And I suspect he was also trying to flog me a mortgage. He couldn't make my postcode work in his "system" (bit of paper he'd found on the floor) so hopefully I won't get pestered by "consultants".

It's all a bit tiring. And baffling.

A lot has come onto the market in the areas we're interested in - all of it at mad, bubble prices.

So maybe that's the newly rising market we've heard about in the last few weeks.

But there are lots of properties that came on last winter, autumn or even summer and haven't shifted. They're taking a long time to be reduced in price, but they're beginning to be - some significantly, although that's from mad, kite-flying levels.

So I wonder if the poor quality of price index research, the fact that a very few sales can skew figures dramatically, and an HPI-friendly, HPC-denying state of mind is what's going on right now.

[Steppenpig]

Serious question - Why didn't you buy one between 2009-2012? (assuming you want(ed) to buy one)

Call us naive, but it looked like prices were going to go signifiantly lower for a while, like in other countries, including the US. No sane person* imagined that the government was going to recreate exactly the economic situation it had professed to be unwinding, plus introduce a few more market distortions on top.

*This excepts your good self naturally.

Edited April 9, 2015 by Steppenpig

[norseraider]

Are you not getting the warm wet feeling of trickle down?

LOL

[Steppenpig]

... but when you can buy a 4/5 bed house with a pool in the south of France for £250K and are within 45 mins of a major city or international airport, then the slave box for £400K and a 30yr mortgage in the London suburbs is really the ultimate p*ss-take.

I did a post last week about how french and german urban house prices were actually *fairly* similar to UK. I think it is when you go rural that the big differences occur. In France, properties are dependent on local wages. Basiclly the UK has passed the point of population density where every inch is now a commuter zone, so rural prices are driven by urban property prices.

Possibly

Edited April 9, 2015 by Steppenpig

[R K]

we tried till about end of 2011 ish

we offered sensible money on houses in line with the land registry and got no takers.

There wasn't much supply and few decent houses.

Not much moved for years and some of the stuff we offered on sat forever, till the FLS/HTB madness, they they have all sold for full asking.

We've had agents tell us they cant believe some idiot ( from London ) has paid the asking price and we've been told the buyer is waiting on a chain and the buyer is trying to get a mortgage despite not being able to afford the house. Agents have tried to play us like idiots and at least 3 decent family homes we tried to view we were blocked by agents. The fraud was there for anyone to see. Then the FLS/HTB kicked in and you could see the madness coming. You can still see it. It's quite frightening how stupid and easily led people are.

Sure, we could have paid 2007+ asking prices but we want to move away at some point and the cost of buying/selling versus renting is much the same. The chance of being stuck with a house we couldn't sell is high though. The chance of loosing a lot of money was there and is even higher now. There was no reason to partake in the madness then and there is less of a reason to partake now.

sitting here now though, It's like the crash never happened.

BUT IT DID.

Therein lies the problem (imo)

[zugzwang]

[Errol]

This thread is a pretty good sign that we are nearing the end.

[@contradevian]

I moved back up North five years ago from London. It was that or Bulgaria.

To be honest though I don't see Northampton house prices as that insane, considering the insaneness elsewhere and Leicester somewhat of a 'bargain' LOL

Edited April 9, 2015 by RentierParadisio

[Austin Allegro]

I did a post last week about how french and german urban house prices were actually *fairly* similar to UK. I think it is when you go rural that the big differences occur. In France, properties are dependent on local wages. Basiclly the UK has passed the point of population density where every inch is now a commuter zone, so rural prices are driven by urban property prices.

Possibly

I think it's also because of a cultural dislike of long commutes in some continental countries. They think it's rather odd to spend upwards of an hour each day crawling along a motorway just to get to to a cubicle in an office. Can't think why.

[R K]

Call us naive, but it looked like prices were going to go signifiantly lower for a while, like in other countries, including the US. No sane peson* imagined that the government was going to recreate exactly the economic situation it had been professed to be unwinding, plus introduce a few more market distortions on top.

*This excepts your good self naturally.

Well they fell c 30% in real terms which is about par for the course. The main difference between this and previous reflations so far is that wages have been more sluggish as is well documented. But the housing reflation from the depths of the recession looks pretty bog-standard. What's puzzling (to me) is that it looked pretty bog-standard at the time, hence why I'm asking. Availability bias? Dunno.......perhaps assigning too much weight to a 50% fall when a 30% fall was there or thereabouts?

I'm not persuaded anchoring to 2007 nominal prices in 2015 onwards will be a particularly fruitful endeavor.

Edited April 9, 2015 by R K

[zugzwang]

Benny the Bubble's got a new book out, explains everything.

[Guest]

Well they fell c 30% in real terms which is about par for the course. The main difference between this and previous reflations so far is that wages have been more sluggish as is well documented. But the housing reflation from the depths of the recession looks pretty bog-standard. What's puzzling (to me) is that it looked pretty bog-standard at the time, hence why I'm asking. Availability bias? Dunno.......perhaps assigning too much weight to a 50% fall when a 30% fall was there or thereabouts?

'real terms' are worse than useless when your savings and wages are in pounds.

[Steppenpig]

.. The main difference between this and previous reflations so far is that wages have been more sluggish...

Do you really think the (London and SE, as far as Northants, allegedly) housing market would be booming if the government hadn't introduced specific policies create it?

Edited April 9, 2015 by Steppenpig

[thombleached]

You mention moving to Scotland. It's still possible to live decently there. Prices can be negotiated down also, as the HPI has effectively stalled for most of the country. Even Aberdeen, recently....

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-28023402.html

The above house is fairly typical. Even better value can be found on the coasts if you look. West coast has the same for 20-30% less , within 30-40mins to Glasgow city or the airport.

I don't know your circumstances, but many of the London/SE dwellers can't project themselves living anywhere outside the bubble and work-related to the City. Sure, elsewhere salaries may be less, but if you have skills that are in demand you might be able to work as a contractor or for a consultancy - that way you can base yourself anywhere and have your employer pay your weekly travel/hotel costs to work onsite. Just a suggestion - again it isn't suitable for all.

Took 'em a couple of years to figure it out though....

09/04/2015

• Price changed: Offers Over £250,000

11/02/2015

• Price changed: Offers Over £330,000 £250,000

13/01/2015

• Status changed: from 'null' to 'Sold STC'

10/10/2014

• Price changed: Offers Over £350,000 £330,000

25/09/2014

• Price changed: Offers Over £365,000 £350,000
• Status changed: null

21/10/2013

• Status changed: Premium Listing, null, null

02/09/2013

• Initial entry found.

[Agentimmo]

Slightly confused by the multiple smileys

The house on the link is at high end of my scale if I was buying up there.....

I have family on the west coast living in a 1920s stone built house, 2 mins from the beach and 30mins from Glasgow centre. Their 6 bed house with large garden could be bought for around £170K.

Would that even get you a garage in Laandan ?

-Edited: OK , I understand now from Thombeached's post. Didn't realise they were askind double the £250K previously.

Insanity - even at £250K, I'd be negotiating down.

Edited April 9, 2015 by Agentimmo

[LC1]

I dont doubt for 1 minute buying now in London and the shires is just crazy now. But you do have to wonder what is going to come next.

Buying in London would be a wise choice, prices set to rise 30% in the next 5 years, apparently...

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/apr/09/we-can-afford-buy-flat-london-but-should-we

[Agentimmo]

I think it's also because of a cultural dislike of long commutes in some continental countries. They think it's rather odd to spend upwards of an hour each day crawling along a motorway just to get to to a cubicle in an office. Can't think why.

Also, French banks stopped lending loony sums of cash to buyers ages ago. And it's fairly simple to get planning permission (a permis de contruire) to build your own place. Especially if you live 10kms or further from a town centre.

[“Nasty Piece of work”]

A shyte sandwich, as time goes by, the bread gets thinner.

[winkie]

Buying in London would be a wise choice, prices set to rise 30% in the next 5 years, apparently...

No.....selling in London, and I don't mean letting it out and escaping I mean selling up and leaving it to its own devises.

[Ash4781]

Where I am (Maidstone) lots of supply is coming on at quite a high price, lots of house starts in pipeline too. Seasonal but Alot is sticking and or coming back from sold stc. Interesting a lot of landlord properties and probates coming on. Word is underwriters are kicking alot back but BTL nd flippers picking up the reigns.

[renting til I die]

For real ?

For me we are at peak madness now.

How long they can support the bubble at this level before it collapses is what I wonder.

It certainly feels like that but I'm preparing for it to get worse.

With IR's at 0.5%, mortgage rates have been tumbling, much to my surprise! Monthly mortgage repayments are what your average joe look at and they are at the most affordable levels for the past 20 odd years! Throw in a little more HTB and I can see the UK housing Ponzi running for a few more years yet.

Of course it could come to an abrupt end if a black swan emerges from somewhere but seeing as we can't start to predict where one of those will come from, we just have to deal with the facts at hand. That is, that the government will prop at any cost. Even though some younger people are switching off housing, many others will attempt to buy at any costs and there are also many older people that don't understand how weak the yields are on rental properties and the other associated risks, will carry on building their BTL portfolios.

Sorry to say this but I would strap yourself in for a long haul!

Yes, we've given up.

We've left the UK and moved to France.

There were many reasons for our move, the stupid price of homes was actually only number 3 or 4 in the list

It's early days, but so far we're in a major city, renting a place 50% bigger than what we had just outside the M25, for 30% less rent. I'm fortunate to have a skillset that's in demand.

At some point I'll write a longer post about our adventures.

I will look forward to that!

The final greater fools in any bubble are the Bears who hold out right until the end and then capitulate........

Once they have bought there are no further buyers.

It won't be different this time.

I have a sneaking feeling that whatever government gets in will let the market go just after this election so that they can claim credit for the recovery that will be taking hold just before the next.

What do you think the Tories £12bn of unspecified welfare cuts are - if that doesn't include further cuts in housing benefit I'd be amazed.

Only if UKIP get in! Labour or the Tories will not be able to avoid the blame for a crashing housing market, both have pumped it up and have too much invested in it.

as others have said, giving up is not really an option if you stay.. My fear is that when we do crash, there will be enough people desensitised to the sums at play and with free money (made in the last few years of HPI/BTL probably..or even foreign money) to just make it go boom all over again. That is my fear. We may well get our crash, but people have had 15 years to accumulate untold wealth, and to try convince them its going to be different is going to be a mammoth task

Outer London houses at £120k? I'll take 4 thanks.

No, the only option is to opt-out. I'll leave the country, remove myself from this poker table and wherever I end up I dont care as long as house prices are not spoken of ever again.

I am actually sick....honestly...when I hear someone talk about a home, but use the word "property", I have to muster up every ounce of restraint to not shout at them

I'm in this camp too! But trying my best to switch off completely almost to the point that I cut myself off from old friends and family that endlessly go on about 'property'. I don't need their smug condescending looks or comments thanks! Plenty of new people to meet in this world!