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Exhausted World Stuck In Permanent Stagnation Warns Imf

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The IMF that said debt should be increased to escape from recession.

They really are the most useless incompetents - that's apart from them being economic wreckers.

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I really think we've run up against the limits of growth, at least temporarily.

The entire economic system is a pyramid scheme. Which was fine in the colonial era, where there were a bunch of 'new' lands to go exploit and expand into. And fine during the 20th century, with its massively booming global population and technological breakthroughs (not to mention two massive wars to give everything a bit of a clear-out).

But where's the next revolutionary breakthrough going to come from? And where are we going to put all the people who belong to the next level of the pyramid?

You can't just keep issuing debt to pay back the old debt when there's no underlying productivity increase or new resources to back it. All that happens is that asset prices go through the roof and 99% of the world gets poorer.

As we have seen.

Our leaders and their economists are idiots.

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The IMF that said debt should be increased to escape from recession.

They really are the most useless incompetents - that's apart from them being economic wreckers.

That's Neoclassical/New Keynesian economics for you: public debt doesn't matter much because it can always be inflated away, and private debt doesn't matter at all since its simply a question of account balances.

Hanging's too good for the bastards.

Edited by zugzwang

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The same IMF that promoted expansionary austerity to cut debts?

holy batsh1t what a f*ck up that was.

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I really think we've run up against the limits of growth, at least temporarily.

Debt growth, yes. For resources, we have an entire galaxy just above our heads. That can keep us going for a very long time.

But where's the next revolutionary breakthrough going to come from?

Automation, 3D printers, bioengineering, space travel, to name just a few. But they won't be developed in a country with a bloated welfare state and interfering, over-regulating government, like the UK.

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I really think we've run up against the limits of growth, at least temporarily.

The entire economic system is a pyramid scheme. Which was fine in the colonial era, where there were a bunch of 'new' lands to go exploit and expand into. And fine during the 20th century, with its massively booming global population and technological breakthroughs (not to mention two massive wars to give everything a bit of a clear-out).

.

nothing has changed. We are going after the richest natural resource country in the world, Russia.

We rack up debt to the gills until the economy gets strangled and then go out and plunder assets to balance the ledger. That was colonialism, it still is. Some call it mercantilism, others call it it theft.

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That's Neoclassical/New Keynesian economics for you: public debt doesn't matter much because it can always be inflated away, and private debt doesn't matter at all since its simply a question of account balances.

Hanging's too good for the bastards.

Maybe economists should only be paid in dollars, zimbabwian dollars.

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I really think we've run up against the limits of growth, at least temporarily.

The entire economic system is a pyramid scheme. Which was fine in the colonial era, where there were a bunch of 'new' lands to go exploit and expand into. And fine during the 20th century, with its massively booming global population and technological breakthroughs (not to mention two massive wars to give everything a bit of a clear-out).

But where's the next revolutionary breakthrough going to come from? And where are we going to put all the people who belong to the next level of the pyramid?

You can't just keep issuing debt to pay back the old debt when there's no underlying productivity increase or new resources to back it. All that happens is that asset prices go through the roof and 99% of the world gets poorer.

As we have seen.

Our leaders and their economists are idiots.

We've been on the a one trip to sh1tsville since Bretton Woods gold standard was abandoned in the early 70s.

Each crisis and recession has been a jump to to screw up more, ending in the 2007 when we jumped to far we are still falling.

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Yeah, I am seeing businesses faltering. Be prepared, the monopoly board pieces are falling off!

I didn't expect the largest hotel in Lyndhurst to close at the end of 2014.

3380190.jpg?display=1&htype=0&type=mc2

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/district/newforest/11606489.Well_known_Hampshire_hotel_to_close_down/?ref=mac

And also more recently near me in February 2015:

3478654.jpg?display=1&htype=0&type=mc2

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11721349.CLOSING_DOWN__Historic_hotel_to_shut_its_doors_for_good/?ref=ar

The last time anecdotally, locally, that I'd heard a big hotel in trouble, was in 2008

743028.jpg?display=1&htype=100000&type=m

http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/3933737.Historic_Dolphin_Hotel_goes_into_administration_/

Edited by 200p

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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/NEW040715A.htm

  • Potential output growth has declined since the global financial crisis
  • Decline reflects impact of aging; lower capital and productivity growth
  • Policy action required to boost productivity, foster capital growth, and offset the effects of aging

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, many economies have faced lower growth in their productive capacity, which may slow the rise of living standards in the future, according to a new study by the IMF.

Global output growth fell sharply during the global financial crisis, and a new study published in the IMF’s April 2015 World Economic Outlook report suggests that a considerable portion of this slowdown is due to economies facing lower “speed limits”. An economy’s speed limit—referred to as potential output growth—dictates how rapidly it can expand its production of goods and services without increasing inflation.

The evidence presented in the study suggests that absent policy action to encourage innovation, promote investment in productive capital, and counteract the negative impetus from aging, countries will have to adjust to a new reality of lower speed limits.

Potential output: taking stock

Potential output measures a country’s productive capacity with stable inflation. It depends on the supply of two factors of production—labor and capital inputs—and how productively they are used. For potential output to grow, either the supply of these factors or productivity has to grow.

In the years since the global financial crisis many economies have witnessed slower expansions in one or more of these key components of potential output growth (see chart 1). Lower potential growth in advanced economies has been driven in roughly equal measure by slower capital accumulation and labor growth—due primarily to adverse demographics. In emerging market economies much of the decline is attributable to slower productivity growth.

I suppose the problem has nothing to do with rentiers seeking more rent?

And WTF is a lower speed limit???

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/07/imf-says-governments-need-to-do-more-to-stimulate-economic-growth

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the world’s major economies risk a long period of low growth unless governments do more to overcome the after-effects of the financial crisis and the longer-term problem of ageing populations.

The Washington-based organisation, best known for acting as lender of last resort to Greece, Ireland and Portugal, said without a switch to policies that spur growth, governments would struggle to shift excessive debts and cut long-term unemployment.

Highlighting Germany, Canada and Japan as three of the worst-affected countries, the IMF said that only by adopting a list of policy reforms that include greater spending on research and development, infrastructure projects and workers’ skills could potential output be raised to nearer levels seen before the 2008 financial crash.

It said governments should also consider action that also includes “better-designed tax and expenditure policies to boost labour force participation, particularly for women and older workers”.

I thought the usually IMF policies in this area when dealing with developing countries was to cut these to improve the chances of the creditors getting paid back?

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/07/imf-says-governments-need-to-do-more-to-stimulate-economic-growth

I thought the usually IMF policies in this area when dealing with developing countries was to cut these to improve the chances of the creditors getting paid back?

Theyve had something of an epiphany. Essentially coz all that sh1t was nonsense.

give it a few years and theyll also be telling everyone to raise their inflation rate target . I reckon 4% for starters but probably not until post the next recession.

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Seems to me the great white hope was the BRIC countries, and they've failed to deliver.

I've seen a list somewhere about conditions required in a country for economic growth. Stuff like rule of law, religious toleration, lack of corruption etc (all the things that helped build Britain and the USA, for example). The BRIC countries don't have enough of this so they can't 'grow' in the way the west would like.

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/14/imf-projects-faster-global-growth-but-warns-of-risks

Global growth will step up a gear over the next two years according to the International Monetary Fund, following the collapse in oil prices and the easing of austerity programmes in developed countries.

But the Washington-based organisation warned that the failure to secure a more sustainable recovery following the 2008 financial crash had left the outlook for global growth vulnerable to further economic shocks.

After stagnation naturally you get faster growth. Amazing how quickly the period of stagnation lasted. It seems like it was almost yesterday and now we have the great revival.

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http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/NEW041415A.htm

Uneven Global Recovery, Complex Underlying Currents

IMF Survey

April 14, 2015

  • Global growth forecast unchanged at 3.5 percent this year and 3.8 percent in 2016
  • Growth diverges: stronger in advanced economies, lower in emerging economies
  • Macro risks decreased, but financial and geopolitical risks increased

Global growth prospects are uneven across major economies, says the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). In advanced economies, growth is projected to strengthen in 2015 relative to 2014, but in emerging market and developing economies it is expected to be weaker.

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I see the IMF is still led by the thunderingly obtuse Olivier Blanchard, chiefly famous for exonerating the Economics profession's failure to predict or anticipate in any way the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression - in a paper first published just one month before Lehmans went titsup.

"The state of the Macro[-economics] is good," he declared, obtusely, in August 2008.

Has a man ever been more wrong? :rolleyes:

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