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Big Orange

German Mass Immigration Needed

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Don't people realise that the model of working to buy stuff has hit the buffers?


Germany Needs 500,000 Immigrants A Year Till 2050: Study

Germany seems to be becoming a nation with a large number of "baby boomers" that are on the verge of retirement. Due to fewer laborers in Germany, half a million immigrants are needed every year for 35 years, according to a study that foresees a sharp decline in Germany's workforce.

According to the Bertelsmann Institute, in the next 15 years, half the German laborers will retire and become pensioners, reveals a study published Friday. Germany without immigrants will show a labor pool reduced from the existing 45 million to 29 million people, or 36 percent, by 2050.

"Even if the number of employed women would somehow equal that of men and the retirement age is prolonged to 70 years, this would only give additional 4.4 million workers. Further digitalization and robotization of production processes could decrease this shortage, however," according to rt.

By 2013, almost 429,000 immigrants entered the country. In 2014, up to 470,000 people arrived, according to Germany's Destatis, or the Federal Statistics Office.

Just about 25,000 out of a total of 140,000 non-EU immigrants who came to Germany in 2013 are seeking jobs, while most are struggling to study or just to join their families, according to the study. The others entered as refugees.

According to another study from Institut fuer Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), these levels of immigration are "sufficient to keep the labor force army stable in the coming ten years." However, this is not expected to be the case with the retirement of the strong baby-boomers. Therefore, after 2026, some 600,000 immigrants a year will have to move into Germany to keep its system stable, according to wbponline.

The study also shows that the economies of Southern Europe have started to leave the crisis, hence they require more workers at home, even as those who are unemployed are happy to become busy in Germany.

"Germany can't rely on further high immigration from the EU. We must take the measures now that make Germany an attractive destination for non-EU citizens," said Bertelsmann Institute board member Jörg Dräger, as quoted by the Local.

Most of the future EU migrants into Germany will be 70,000 per year, so the workers here will have to be brought in from outside the EU, according to the study.

Due to the unstable conditions in the Middle East, there could be many immigrants into Europe, with Germany as EU's strongest economy.

Dräger believes that Germany needs a new policy of immigration that would be able to invite qualified foreigners from outside the EU. It would require a change in the immigration law in order to open access to citizenship, so that naturalization programs can be attractive, the local language can be learnt along with the social security system and there can be protection for immigrants.

Meanwhile, there are many supporters of the PEGIDA (Patriot Europeans Against the Islamization of the West) movement in Germany who are conducting mass drives opposing 'Islamization' of Germany. It looks at Islamisation as dangerous and instead wants Germany's Judeo-Christian religious culture to be saved.

Edited by Big Orange

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And when the immigrants retire, theyll need more then too.

Some people cant see the theft when it is right before their eyes.

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Just about 25,000 out of a total of 140,000 non-EU immigrants who came to Germany in 2013 are seeking jobs, while most are struggling to study or just to join their families, according to the study. The others entered as refugees.

Dreadful figures.

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....the greater debt there is the more people that are required to pay for it whilst working to spend it to keep others from defaulting......a vicious cycle. ;)

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According to the Bertelsmann Institute, in the next 15 years, half the German laborers will retire and become pensioners, reveals a study published Friday. Germany without immigrants will show a labor pool reduced from the existing 45 million to 29 million people, or 36 percent, by 2050.

If it's building laborers (basically unskilled workers doing manual tasks) they're talking about it doesn't add up. Although some might think that it wouldn't matter much if building laborers come from overseas and that might be the stealth and misleading message.

However 500,000 a year to 2050 is about 17.5 million people.

Apparently Germany has about 2 million building workers and only a proportion will be laborers and only a percentage will leave the industry every year.

It looks like they're using the word laborers but actually meaning workers in all sectors. So it looks as if they intend the German labour force (unskilled, semi skilled, skilled and ultimately managerial etc) is going to experience the same effects as the UK labour force has experienced and is currently experiencing.

If Germany's success is a reflection of what's often described as the German work ethic (according to some apparently an almost wholly owned work ethic and a big factor in its industrial success etc) then it'll be interesting to see what the overall effects will be.

It's difficult to believe that they really want to emulate the UK's debt economy even though there's been concentrated hype on the UK's false "growth" and its tigerish economy as the election approaches.

Edited by billybong

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If Germany's success is a reflection of what's often described as the German work ethic (according to some apparently an almost wholly owned work ethic and a big factor in its industrial success etc) then it'll be interesting to see what the overall effects will be.

Presumably the end of Germany's economic superiority. Bernanke and RK will finally be happy.

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Presumably the end of Germany's economic superiority. Bernanke and RK will finally be happy.

Stealing from everyone else you mean? hopefully. Better for everyone.

We were the global poster child for industrial power house stealing from the rest of the world once. Didnt end well. These things rarely do.

Edited by R K

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From the Sudetenland?

I thought the survey was from Studentdatingland..

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Stealing from everyone else you mean? hopefully. Better for everyone.

We were the global poster child for industrial power house stealing from the rest of the world once. Didnt end well. These things rarely do.

I have a chunk of my wealth not invested into the debt fuelled housing ponzi. Presumably me having this cash as reserves and a safety net for the future is me being selfish and stealing from everyone else? What should I spend it on? I have enough smartphones (one).

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Stealing from everyone else you mean? hopefully. Better for everyone.

We were the global poster child for industrial power house stealing from the rest of the world once. Didnt end well. These things rarely do.

We mean *gasp* Britain (and soon after other Europeans) had the gall and audacity to innovate and industrialise, while it was entirely our fault that somewhat developed India and China remained relatively stagnant, and Africa was slow to develop?! Not that imperialism was good and there was geographical/cultural fluke in play, but I recognise a hatchet job when I see one. Edited by Big Orange

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The facts are that Germany's economy is powered by superior engineers, mathematicians, scientists etc. but the media, in my mind always subtly suggests a kind of racial superiority and I suspect many of the older generation perceive Germany as a threat to be contained. The real problem here is that the birth rate is dropping. One has to ask is it worth carrying out this mass immigration social experiment in order to keep the numbers up and might it not be more sensible to offer incentives to have children rather than literally air lifting undreds of thousands in from different countries and hoping for the best?

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And when the immigrants retire, theyll need more then too.

Some people cant see the theft when it is right before their eyes.

Yes there was a great article some years ago in the Torygraph showing the whole argument for immigration is based on the Dracula model i.e. you keep needing more virgins to satisfy the beast.

People forget that Japan's GDP grow for three decades (I think it was), without any immigration. OK they have issues now regarding being looked after but the Mediterranean of looking after the elders does seem to help there some what, not to mention it gives cheap child care while people go out to work, obviously that doesn't work for everybody, but still.

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The real problem here is that the birth rate is dropping.

Why is that a problem? Unless the rate drop is massive a country that's unable to cope with a gradually declining population is a broken country. Of course most countries these days are broken, they just engage in all sorts of crazy activities to disguise it at the expense of heaven only knows what future disasters. Edited by Riedquat

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Why is that a problem? Unless the rate drop is massive a country that's unable to cope with a gradually declining population is a broken country. Of course most countries these days are broken, they just engage in all sorts of crazy activities to disguise it at the expense of heaven only knows what future disasters.

Well maybe it's not a problem to you and me but in our system that's fashioned around a welfare state it becomes a problem when the tax burden on the still-working becomes too large to sustain due to an increasing proportion of the population being in retirement.

What's really interesting is that in the 1960s we were hearing about how we'd all be leading lives of leisure by now and with increases in productivity, we ought only to be working 10 hours a week. I suspect the need to work is so deeply culturally ingrained that it's simply not an option for most of us to collectively face up to and deal with our future.

Edited by Pindar

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That's a sign of a social system that's unable to cope. Think about what's actually needed in practice - nowhere near everyone working in order to do all the work that's needed to keep everyone going. The "lives of leisure" idea realised that but society has been unable to adjust. It's that that's the problem though, not the declining population, so that's where the effort needs to be concentrated. Population reduction will bring large benefits and few downsides just as long as it doesn't happen too rapidly.

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Or they could just accept the several workers for every retiree that existed between 1970-1990 was completely abnormal and given mechanization and productivity increases and mechanization is nothing to worry about, like most Japanese have realized...

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Fortunately in the UK we appear to be popping our clogs earlier

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3028113/Shock-fall-life-expectancy-women-60-Unhealthy-lifestyles-cuts-social-care-blamed-fall-decades.html

I am not sure that I buy the explanation given in the papers for the stalling in life expectancy for both women and men but that trend line does suggest the idea that people are all going to live to be a 100 looks increasingly fanciful.

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I see it as hype vs hype, with the current life expectancy crash being the result of bad 1960s/1970s/1980s living (booze and fags and rock 'n roll) and women entering the stressful workplace (Sally Ride, the world's first female astronaut died rather suddenly at 61) catching up with today's older middle aged people in the past decade and the unrealistic 100 life expectancy clashing violently with the persistent quality of life issues that affects people who live past 70.

In Roy Porter's London: A Social History, London had a growing manufacturing sector that started to seriously tank and get out competed or outsourced after the early to mid 1970s, then London had a shrinking population and economy through the 80s and 90s. Judging from what's said here London's wealth today is now generated by overpriced property, banking, and foreign worker drones.

Edited by Big Orange

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