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Sentiment Turned Months Ago, What Next?

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I've just spent a couple of hours trawling through the comments on property articles in the pro-Tory press backdated 6 months.

  • Couple of recent articles in the DT (which I haven't seen linked here for trolling) where every single comment was pro-HPC.
  • An older article in the DM where all of the top 10 rated comments were pro-HPC and the top rated comment was witheringly anti-bubble, receiving an approval rating of about +2000/-50
  • HTB ISAs were savaged in the DT comments section on multiple budget articles without a single positive comment I could find.
  • The DM recently seems to have given up on being savaged for ramping, and adopted a 2015 policy of omerta on the housing market, - it now leads the property section with guff about unique windmills.

As somebody (and not alone on HPC I'm sure) who has periodically waded into the war on pro-HPI commenters all over the property and economic sections of these papers over the years, my arrows are all going green, and I'm left without anybody disagreeing.

Now what?

Is it finally here?

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In the last few months The Daily Telegraph has been ramping property like never before, they must be petrified the bubble could pop.

I hope it fails just like its beloved Tory Party.

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I've just spent a couple of hours trawling through the comments on property articles in the pro-Tory press backdated 6 months.

  • Couple of recent articles in the DT (which I haven't seen linked here for trolling) where every single comment was pro-HPC.
  • An older article in the DM where all of the top 10 rated comments were pro-HPC and the top rated comment was witheringly anti-bubble, receiving an approval rating of about +2000/-50
  • HTB ISAs were savaged in the DT comments section on multiple budget articles without a single positive comment I could find.
  • The DM recently seems to have given up on being savaged for ramping, and adopted a 2015 policy of omerta on the housing market, - it now leads the property section with guff about unique windmills.

As somebody (and not alone on HPC I'm sure) who has periodically waded into the war on pro-HPI commenters all over the property and economic sections of these papers over the years, my arrows are all going green, and I'm left without anybody disagreeing.

Now what?

Is it finally here?

I notice the same thing. A few years ago the HPI posters were abundant and often had the top rated comments, now it is the other way. I really do think sentiment has shifted (if not completely turned), in London at least. I've noticed some of my previous blatantly pro HPI forever friends have started hedging their bets in their conversations now. These are the people that were, until very recently, telling me you can't lose in London. Well, some sellers are quite literally now, losing in London.

I was in Waitrose yesterday (it's the closest supermarket to me) and I overheard an older gentleman speaking to a younger female about house prices. I just walked past so didn't catch the whole thing but the snippet I heard was "young people like us don't have a hope of getting on the market" and him agreeing.

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Online comments are one thing but when it comes to accepting a reduced price on their own house do you think it will happen? People need to have their hand forced before they will accept a lower offer.

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I hope you're right, but don't be too sure.

There are people who were gloating when they made money from rising house prices (as if they deserved their extra dosh).

They'll be complaining when they start losing money from falling house prices (because, they'll say, they don't deserve it).

If there's an HPC, these complaints could multiply, and drown out the greater calls for fairness and affordable, available housing.

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There's certainly a growing opinion that something is seriously wrong with the housing market.

However, you still often hear nonsense about 'getting on the ladder', and more often, the meme that 'there aren't enough houses'.

The concept of there being too much debt doesn't seem to occur to anybody. A few websites that promote anti-debt lifestyles are growing in popularity however, which is a good sign - Mr Money Moustache is a good example, although it's American.

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I think the only current driver to sentiment change is from people with kids (or adult kids) either still at home or from those who realise the brats will be at home a long time given the current madness. It has ofc taken far too long for these idiots to realise this.

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There's certainly a growing opinion that something is seriously wrong with the housing market.

However, you still often hear nonsense about 'getting on the ladder', and more often, the meme that 'there aren't enough houses'.

The concept of there being too much debt doesn't seem to occur to anybody. A few websites that promote anti-debt lifestyles are growing in popularity however, which is a good sign - Mr Money Moustache is a good example, although it's American.

...and he's a landlord rentier! Edited by mikthe20

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It will bee more of the same old guff. Insincere hand-wringing about the price, but the same behaviour. It will take a genuine change in the mortgage rate to change anything but the politically correct noises.

Yes other than the Greens i've not heard any party bring up something like ending tax relief for mortgage interest payments, which would have a huge affect on BTL the very parasites who buy would be first homes. But the Greens are absolute nutcases and shouldn't be allowed to be in charge of a knife and fork let alone dictating govt policy.

We live under an evil regime.

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I think the only current driver to sentiment change is from people with kids (or adult kids) either still at home or from those who realise the brats will be at home a long time given the current madness. It has ofc taken far too long for these idiots to realise this.

Parents with adult kids caught between two stools...on the one hand they love the housing equity need unlimited immigration to support their NHS and state pension Ponzi schemes which they didn't even come close to paying for. But all this equity propping and immigration shafting the kids.

Which stool will they choose on election day.....unlimited immigration and housing props, number one comes first.

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Not only is sentiment turning, but the natural flow of people moving into the HPC cohort is growing (more younger people moving into FTB category, more home owners with kids moving into FTB category, immigrants who want to settle), while conversely, you're left with LESS HPI cheerleaders. When there's no such thing as price discovery in a market, you're also left with the bizarre situation of buyers who CAN buy choosing not to buy, because the prices reflect very very poor value. All in all, it's a very precarious situation to be in if you believe UK house prices can only rise.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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Parents with adult kids caught between two stools...on the one hand they love the housing equity need unlimited immigration to support their NHS and state pension Ponzi schemes which they didn't even come close to paying for. But all this equity propping and immigration shafting the kids.

Which stool will they choose on election day.....unlimited immigration and housing props, number one comes first.

Thats what I adore about UKIP - watching the Turkeys voting for Christmas!

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Parents with adult kids caught between two stools...

As the offspring of boomer parents this is something I am currently seeing a lot in many of my social circles. The parents normally wake-up when the kids get married and start looking to buy a house. I live in the south east.

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As the offspring of boomer parents this is something I am currently seeing a lot in many of my social circles. The parents normally wake-up when the kids get married and start looking to buy a house. I live in the south east.

Or when their kids are celebrating 30th birthdays at home

Or when there are no Grandchildren being produced because mortgage lending is maxed on 2x joint

Or when their kids have enough of it and emigrate

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Or when their kids are celebrating 30th birthdays at home

Or when there are no Grandchildren being produced because mortgage lending is maxed on 2x joint

Or when their kids have enough of it and emigrate

Too young for the first 2 but seeing lots of number 3.

[Didn't you mean 4x joint?]

Edited by bankstersparadise

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Yes other than the Greens i've not heard any party bring up something like ending tax relief for mortgage interest payments, which would have a huge affect on BTL the very parasites who buy would be first homes. But the Greens are absolute nutcases and shouldn't be allowed to be in charge of a knife and fork let alone dictating govt policy.

We live under an evil regime.

No more nutcase than any other party when you think about what this coalition or the previous crew have actually done with the power. Greens want to impose rent controls, slap on LVT, incentivise self build, council build and developer build. Who is the nutcase? Oh yeah, they aren't experienced in sound-bite politics and never-answer-a-question media management. You prefer the politicians that do that?

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I have given up trying to predict anything. Daughter and her bf bought in Oxford late 2011 after working abroad for years. I did suggest renting - I thought it would be sensible for a while, since prices were surely due to drop soon, but they were adamant and I wasn't going to interfere. Similar houses to the one they bought for £205K (they did negotiate hard and had a hefty deposit) are now selling for £275- 290K+.

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No more nutcase than any other party when you think about what this coalition or the previous crew have actually done with the power. Greens want to impose rent controls, slap on LVT, incentivise self build, council build and developer build. Who is the nutcase? Oh yeah, they aren't experienced in sound-bite politics and never-answer-a-question media management. You prefer the politicians that do that?

They want to ban the car, and open the borders to the entire world, they are deluded and that women who runs it is creepy and makes Milliband seem like the most normal chap on the planet.

Not being experienced and being dumb when answering the most basic of questions about policy are 2 different things.

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There seems to be a lot of supply coming on for Maidstone but it is that time of year. Alot seems to go sold subject to contract then re-appear.

There are the pension reforms due and George seems to have timed this to pickup as hpi year on year falls. By recent speeches he seemed to be not heaping praise on annuities. I wonder if they will be able to get a secondary market for annuities in place.

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I think you're wrong and you're right.

Just that I'd be a little bit careful with the articles - those who prefer the hpi status quo are less bothered with them than pro-hpc'ers. If there has been a change in the comments its that since there has been a lot on the 'Housing Crisis' I think people are less inclined to say 'when I were a lad..' "why don't you buy less iPads and holidays" "I've done nicely with hpi p1ss off and stop whining" etc etc. There is an acceptance now that the young if not the middle-aged are f*cked.

You're right in that 'on the ground' in increasingly vast numbers getting a house is just not on the cards. Not even '"perhaps 10 years after my child bearing age ends maybe I''ll have scraped enough..." And I'm pretty sure the papers have picked up on the sheer number of comments on some of these articles if not the actual content of the comments.

The watershed moment for me in fact was the Woman Hour focus group in Solihull.

Edited by pig

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