Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
CHF

Prices (Growth) And Transactions Down

Recommended Posts

Cant see these on the front page and seeing as its 2 in one day, I figured I'd throw these into the mix.

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/2019852.article?cmpid=msbreak_1000222

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/products/products-news/house-price-growth-shows-signs-of-slowing-across-uk/2019832.article

For what its worth, I was a mortgage adviser for a few years (several years ago) and I dont recall anyone ever telling me they were looking to buy a house but were waiting until after the election. Granted there was only 1 election in that time but I fail to understand what people might be expecting that could happen with a change of govt that would disrupt what should be well thought out plans.

Edit: Might as well add this one too......

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/regulation/regulation-news/fca-to-launch-fresh-investigation-into-the-mortgage-market/2019838.article

Edited by CHF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't really buy the election uncertainty meme either, but if there is any truth in it then perhaps it is an indication of how much the market is currently dominated by speculators rather than people buying purely for their own personal consumption.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cant see these on the front page and seeing as its 2 in one day, I figured I'd throw these into the mix.

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/2019852.article?cmpid=msbreak_1000222

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/products/products-news/house-price-growth-shows-signs-of-slowing-across-uk/2019832.article

For what its worth, I was a mortgage adviser for a few years (several years ago) and I dont recall anyone ever telling me they were looking to buy a house but were waiting until after the election. Granted there was only 1 election in that time but I fail to understand what people might be expecting that could happen with a change of govt that would disrupt what should be well thought out plans.

Edit: Might as well add this one too......

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/regulation/regulation-news/fca-to-launch-fresh-investigation-into-the-mortgage-market/2019838.article

The count did some analysis in another thread the other day, the pre-election slump can be proved empirically to be a fallacy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cant see these on the front page and seeing as its 2 in one day, I figured I'd throw these into the mix.

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/2019852.article?cmpid=msbreak_1000222

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/products/products-news/house-price-growth-shows-signs-of-slowing-across-uk/2019832.article

For what its worth, I was a mortgage adviser for a few years (several years ago) and I dont recall anyone ever telling me they were looking to buy a house but were waiting until after the election. Granted there was only 1 election in that time but I fail to understand what people might be expecting that could happen with a change of govt that would disrupt what should be well thought out plans.

Edit: Might as well add this one too......

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/regulation/regulation-news/fca-to-launch-fresh-investigation-into-the-mortgage-market/2019838.article

And in other news people are not buying houses because the weather is to cold to hot to wet the wrong type of snow it`s the wrong time of the year the list of excuse go on and on and on

But one thing for sure it`s never because they are to expensive that`s never the case

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the 2nd article:

House price inflation is showing signs of slowing across the whole of the UK after a sharp fall in annual price rises in January.

From the ONS report:

On a seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices fell by 0.2% between December 2014 and January 2015.

That's not a slowing of inflation, that's deflation - again.

Comparing the monthly change with this time last year:

Dec 2013 - Jan 2014North East	202.2	202.3	UPNorth West	197.7	194.4	DNYorks/Humber	196.5	198.9	UPEast Mids	181.5	182.7	UPWest Mids	179.8	179.4	DNEast		170.7	173.0	UPLondon		210.0	214.1	UPSouth East	169.6	175.0	UPSouth West	173.0	177.4	UPDec 2014 - Jan 2015North East	212.7	215.6	UPNorth West	205.6	203.4	DNYorks/Humber	209.6	206.0	DNEast Mids	196.2	195.5	DNWest Mids	189.7	187.2	DNEast		190.3	190.2	DNLondon		238.0	241.9	UPSouth East	189.2	188.3	DNSouth West	188.1	187.9	DN

Last January, it was down in 2 of 9 regions on December. This January, it's up in 2 of 9 regions on December.

In fact, it's the worst January compared to December (+0.02% not seasonally adjusted) since 2005 when the index fell, just about. Even then, it was up in 4 of the 9 regions. 2013 and 2009 are the next closest contenders both at +0.02% but just higher by thousandths (up in 4 and 3 of 9 regions respectively).

Edited by Digsby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The count did some analysis in another thread the other day, the pre-election slump can be proved empirically to be a fallacy.

It never did ring true but my insignificant amounts of data weren't enough to hypothesise anything.

I could see myself agreeing with 'neverwhere' and speculators perhaps holding off based on CGT changes or similar. And anecdotally I hear my mates still in the industry are doing more and more BTL recently.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It never did ring true but my insignificant amounts of data weren't enough to hypothesise anything.

I could see myself agreeing with 'neverwhere' and speculators perhaps holding off based on CGT changes or similar. And anecdotally I hear my mates still in the industry are doing more and more BTL recently.

IIRC the CML numbers for February had BTL up 19% cant remember if this was MOM or YOY it looks like the unregulated sector is sucking up the last of the FFLS cash

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

January up 6% MOM up 12% YOY http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/4160

Edit : think we are confusing purchases with mortgages there were a lot of remortgages in the cml figures

Edited by long time lurking

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ignore the noise and the overall trend for transactions is down down down as more and more of the housing stock is snapped up by BTLers who'll probably hold for longer rather it acting like a rung on the infamous ladder.

Estate Agents are increasingly living off and encouraging churn in the rental market.

I fear you are right i hope you are wrong

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cant see these on the front page and seeing as its 2 in one day, I figured I'd throw these into the mix.

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/2019852.article?cmpid=msbreak_1000222

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/products/products-news/house-price-growth-shows-signs-of-slowing-across-uk/2019832.article

For what its worth, I was a mortgage adviser for a few years (several years ago) and I dont recall anyone ever telling me they were looking to buy a house but were waiting until after the election. Granted there was only 1 election in that time but I fail to understand what people might be expecting that could happen with a change of govt that would disrupt what should be well thought out plans.

Edit: Might as well add this one too......

http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/regulation/regulation-news/fca-to-launch-fresh-investigation-into-the-mortgage-market/2019838.article

SNP and Plaid Cymru propping up the Labour party is a whole new game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   94 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.