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Ftse 100 Reaches 7,000

silver surfer

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From 2009 to the middle of 2013 I did the same, and it paid off handsomely. Then I got it into my head that rising rates would crash the market and started looking for opportunities to get short. There haven't been many. And rates haven't gone anywhere either, of course. I called it wrong. Increasingly it looks as as if 0% is the 'new normal'. Meanwhile, even though BoE and the Fed have paused, the BoJ, ECB, and PBoC are all still printing dementedly. Until those circumstances changes it's hard to see why stock markets should fall. Reading Fisher Black's famous paper on noise sealed the deal. I need more science and fewer hunches.


Funny as 'pump TV' was going on about dollar parity with Euro, EURUSD has gone bid and the Dollar Index has been struggling a little over the last few days,

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I've been with vanilla trackers and time in the market not timing the market for 7.5 years now. It's boring but all those lovely dividends and a bit of capital gain make up for the boredom somewhat.

Your success is down to timing and not time. Had you invested ten years earlier in a plain vanilla tracker then you would have barely kept up with inflation and you would have been beaten by every other asset class including plain vanilla cash which has attracted rates of up to 7% during the last 15 years. indeed you should be congratulating yourself for your timing and not ascribing it to something boring. You bought in when everybody else saw Armageddon, well done.

The time not timing myth came out of a cohort that bought shares in the mid seventies and then saw their holding make them incredibly rich. They then ascribed their success to their superior investment abilities when in fact they were just born into a lucky cohort, the same has been true of property.

Had the generation that followed tried the same policy on Equities (time not timing) it would have gotten them nowhere except by clever timing into dips such as 2009.

Wealth has everything to do with timing and chance and nothing to do with time.

Edited by crashmonitor
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Fair enough but I think your original idea was better! I'm sticking with vanilla trackers for the forseeable in the expectation of lower rates/more QE. I've pretty much done a 180° in my appreciation of market efficiency in recent months. No more noise trading!

FWIW I have bought some back this morning, a bit of a bugger because the Market is moving against me big time..........was hoping to get a 250 reset on re-entry but now looks like a 175 point at best. It's a noon fix buy, which goes to show real time trading (even with the greater costs) probably saves money in the long run; especially as the rises and falls are so telegraphed.

Back to about 60% of the holding I am comfortable with, and will look for dips during the coming days.

Edited by crashmonitor
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Well the noon fix came in at 6839 so a reset of 174 points on my 7015 exit. Just got to reset the other 40% now at some opportune point.

And hey if the trap door opens you have never lost long. Dividends beat bank interest in a zirp era and index revisitation is about 99.999% guaranteed.

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