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rantnrave

Latest Rightmove Initial Asking Prices Index Just Below Record

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Rightmove jumping on the 'pensioners are going to buy everything' bandwagon:


Price of property coming to market up by 1.0% (+£2,748), a more muted rise at this time of year for three years suggesting pre-election slowdown
Average new seller asking price just £30 below June 2014 record as high demand reduces the impact of tighter lending controls introduced in the April 2014 Mortgage Market Review
Buy-to-let investors cashing in their pension pots to raise larger deposits may drive prices up further at the low end of the market - agents are reporting uplift in interest ahead of new pension rules
Number of newly-listed properties up by 3.2% compared to last month, though first-time buyer properties which are likely ‘granlord’ investor targets have seen the lowest increase in supply (+2.6%) and are the sector seeing the highest annual price rise (+7.6%)

Full report: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2015/03/march-2015.pdf

This mentions the fact that this is the smallest increase for three years and (initial) asking prices fell more in London than anywhere else last month. Since these snippets aren't in the official bullet points, the MSM are bound not to notice them...

Edited by rantnrave

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It's about time trading standards forced them to release the current asking price average.

I wonder what the difference between the two would be !!! :rolleyes:

Well, finding out the answer to that question is one of the main objectives of my current data collection and analysis exercise. At the moment, it is still too soon to give any firm answers, but here is an idea of what I'm seeing.

I started compiling the current dataset for SW16 on Feb 14th, so I have a months worth of data now. Any changes from the initial asking price before that is not recorded, so the initial asking price I have on record for listings that already existed on that date, is the price they were at that time (this is why it is too soon for a firm answer).

However, 22% of the listings have now been added since, so I can accurately give the difference in initial asking price and current asking price on that 22%. But, of course, the longer a property is on the market, the more reduced it will be, so this 22% have all been on the market less than a month, and thus will be less reduced than the 78% that have been on the market for more than a month.

Of that 22%, which is 243 properties, 12 (4.94%) have been reduced, at an average of 5.44% per property. The average current price of those 243 listings is 0.14% less than the average initial price.

If I were to assume that the notional 'initial' asking I have on record for the other 78% of the market represented the true initial asking prices, then overall, 8.89% have been reduced (in the last month), at an average of 6.04% per property. The average current price of all listings is 0.45% less than the average 'initial' price.

The last time I reported the % of listings with reductions was 5 days ago, and at the time the figure was 8.1%.

At the moment, guessing what the true % of current asking price versus initial asking price for the whole market would be is a real stab in the dark, but at the moment, my feeling is that it is likely to be less than 5%.

Time will tell.

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Well, finding out the answer to that question is one of the main objectives of my current data collection and analysis exercise. At the moment, it is still too soon to give any firm answers, but here is an idea of what I'm seeing.

I started compiling the current dataset for SW16 on Feb 14th, so I have a months worth of data now. Any changes from the initial asking price before that is not recorded, so the initial asking price I have on record for listings that already existed on that date, is the price they were at that time (this is why it is too soon for a firm answer).

However, 22% of the listings have now been added since, so I can accurately give the difference in initial asking price and current asking price on that 22%. But, of course, the longer a property is on the market, the more reduced it will be, so this 22% have all been on the market less than a month, and thus will be less reduced than the 78% that have been on the market for more than a month.

Of that 22%, which is 243 properties, 12 (4.94%) have been reduced, at an average of 5.44% per property. The average current price of those 243 listings is 0.14% less than the average initial price.

If I were to assume that the notional 'initial' asking I have on record for the other 78% of the market represented the true initial asking prices, then overall, 8.89% have been reduced (in the last month), at an average of 6.04% per property. The average current price of all listings is 0.45% less than the average 'initial' price.

The last time I reported the % of listings with reductions was 5 days ago, and at the time the figure was 8.1%.

At the moment, guessing what the true % of current asking price versus initial asking price for the whole market would be is a real stab in the dark, but at the moment, my feeling is that it is likely to be less than 5%.

Time will tell.

Keep up the good work and ignore my idiotic posts :lol:

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Rightmove jumping on the 'pensioners are going to buy everything' bandwagon:

Full report: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2015/03/march-2015.pdf

This mentions the fact that this is the smallest increase for three years and (initial) asking prices fell more in London than anywhere else last month. Since these snippets aren't in the official bullet points, the MSM are bound not to notice them...

On London, if you go into the table by borough you find some mindblowing figures: -17.1% MoM in Westminster, OK you could say that's a special case with small sample size etc, but -12.7% MoM in Barnet? Is this a credible index of anything?

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On London, if you go into the table by borough you find some mindblowing figures: -17.1% MoM in Westminster, OK you could say that's a special case with small sample size etc, but -12.7% MoM in Barnet? Is this a credible index of anything?

Yeah it is lose-lose to highlight that in their report. The index is naff and or prices in London starting to turn. I am not sure. I do like the Foxtons share price indicator though ! Edited by Ash4781

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