My Dismay At Your Forum

[theChuz]

some geezer once said... we end up becomming the thing we despise

its part of the reason why people suck.

So be it.

[Catch22]

Hang on, shouldn't that read 'welcome to the mammary-fixated knuckle-dragging thicko section of HPC'? Tim can get together with you and 'I like big boobs' or whatever his name is and you can sit in a little room and have a nice circle-jerk about enormous knockers and how property prices only ever go up (oo-er missus).

And please don't say 'iz it coz I iz Norvern' - no, it's not.

Get em told Gal

Edited December 10, 2005 by Catch22

[North London Rent Girl]

I'd like to add my POV to the mix also -

This is simply because we can BARELY CONTAIN OUR EXCITMENT AND DELIGHT at the prospect of a HPC and economic correction. See, we will have a pile of cash on tap at precisely the moment when so many will be THROWING stuff at us a DIRT CHEAP prices just so they can make ends meet.

You got it in one. The BADDER the BETTER. It cannot come soon enough. The more repos, bankruptcies and IVA the better. All that gear out there for us to cream off. WOW!!! IT'S GOING TO BE A PARTY LIKE NO OTHER!

So go get your LIE TO BUY 6X imaginary salary mortgage, and go sign up for your X5, NE06 MEW registered gas monster and go with our combined blessing.

Not something I get to say every day but - nice one, slapper!

[enworb]

Why do you find 50% price drops ridiculous? On a nationwide basis I agree that it seems unlikely, but for certain regions and types of property there appear to be strong possibilities of major reductions.

Could you expand on why you feel that major falls are so unlikely as to deride the idea as ridiculous?

Sorry to generalise with regards to price drops. But these 50 -60% "corrections" seem to be nationwide when discussed by a bear.

I won't go into too much detail - you are right that price rises/drops vary from region to region, but I can't see a 50%+ correction when a vast majority of the British public expect prices to stagnate or keep creeping up in the long term.

With regards to certain types of property dropping in price, new build apartments are over priced and do need to be realistically priced in certain regions - but having said that, 2 bed NB apartments are still selling in Berkshire for similar prices to 1930's 3 bed semi's with garages.

Clearly some people can still afford to pay these crazy prices even if some on this site (me included) can't.

[CrashConnoisseur]

Sorry to generalise with regards to price drops. But these 50 -60% "corrections" seem to be nationwide when discussed by a bear. [enworb]

Put me down for 50%. That's for the average real fall across the UK (after adjusting for inflation). This disorderly readjustment will play out over many years so the nominal falls will be less -- say, 35-40%.

Why couldn't a small terraced house in Macclesfield bought in the early 1990s for £15,000 and sold at the top of the market in 2004 for £175,000 fall by 60-70% (after adjusting for inflation)?

...I can't see a 50%+ correction when a vast majority of the British public expect prices to stagnate or keep creeping up in the long term. [enworb]

It's precisely because the vast majority of the British public expected prices to stagnate or keep creeping up that they are now correcting -- they overvalued the market.

Clearly some people can still afford to pay these crazy prices even if some on this site (me included) can't.

Sure, and in December 1999 some people could still afford to pay $113 a share for Amazon.

Edited December 10, 2005 by Jeff Ross

[right_freds_dead]

Sure, and in December 1999 some people could still afford to pay $113 a share for Amazon

nice.

[Elizabeth]

Clearly some people can still afford to pay these crazy prices even if some on this site (me included) can't.

Sure, and in December 1999 some people could still afford to pay $113 a share for Amazon.

This has to do with both valuation and the source of the money. If the 15K house in Macclesfield weren't valued at 175K for borrowing purposes then nobody in Macclesfield would be able to afford to buy it. But then, if it had stayed at 15K + an allowance for broad economic inflation most who wanted to own would probably have been able to buy outright.

Who is better off? the guy with the 15K house owned outright or the guy with the same house and a mortgage for 155K that they will be paying off for the next 25 years? The banks giveth, the banks taketh away.

[lewissheridan]

Dear all,

I first looked at this web site about a year ago as I was thinking of buying my first flat. A year on, I return to the website as I am once again considering buying, and am dismayed to see the majority of discussions are practically the same as back then.

With the exclusion of some well researched and balanced contributions, the majority of the postings here are simply people gloating over any piece of bad economic news they can dig up.

Today there was a thread about a survey on a website: 'will there be a total collapse of the housing market'. With glee contributors reported the results "69% Yes" .. "now its 72%!!!!".. These survey results I should add were based on a pole of 12 (presumably 72% visiting from housepricecrash.co.uk )

What I find alarming is that most people on this forum seem to be looking forward to a devasting house price crash. Do you not think this would be bad for the economy? What about your friends/family who are property owners? Or people relying on the equity in their homes for retirement?

I do agree that house prices are high and that people should think carefully before buying and indeed that in some areas and in some circumstances renting is best. But shouldn't potention FTBs be given the simple advice: buying a propery is hard - save, make lifestyle changes if necessary... waiting for a house price crash just seems plain lazy to me..

Tim

Hi Tim,

I think that's a fair and balanced opinion, I myself am in the same situation, and I do use this board for research and advice, and there is the obvious camps of House Price Crash fanatics etc. However in response to some of your points.

What I find alarming is that most people on this forum seem to be looking forward to a devasting house price crash. Do you not think this would be bad for the economy? What about your friends/family who are property owners? Or people relying on the equity in their homes for retirement?

I admittedly do want a house price crash to happen, because i believe house prices are so over inflated, that first-time buyers don't stand a chance unless they take on crippling amounts of debt. I don't think this is fair, or necessary, and is further enforced by the gloating paper wealthy people that own homes and have no apparent remorse for people like ourselves who work hard, have made lifestyle changes to ensure they have no debts and saved up substancial deposits to have the prices rise continously.

Would this be bad for the economy ? I think this is the nature of the economy, there is an imbalance and a natural order will prevail, whether this is good or bad is indifferent, what it will ultimately mean is affordable housing, surely that is good?

What about friends or family? well, provided they haven't borrowed exorborant amounts of cash on their equity which would fuel inflation and have perpetuated where we are now in respects to high prices. If the house prices do fall back to what they were originally bought for then there's no harm done. The boom and bust is cyclical.

People relying on equity for their pension ? well, they shouldn't risk that their house prices are an investable asset, i've put this point across in another thread entitled my manifesto to multiple home ownership, they should use conventional investment and pension schemes, case in reference properties not allowed to be part of pensions now. Reason being that house prices are potentially volatile, it would be a nice thought to retire with a home that has plenty of equity, but it isn't something i would necessarily bank on. A home for me is first and foremost a home. It will be an asset to pass on to my children no doubt after inheritence tax.

But shouldn't potention FTBs be given the simple advice: buying a propery is hard - save, make lifestyle changes if necessary... waiting for a house price crash just seems plain lazy to me..

I agree on the surface it would appear that way, but underneath people are giving the advice to save a substancial deposit, reign in debts etc, as we are a generation that want things now and slowly have to adapt to the reality of buying a house. I myself am under no illussions that this will be the biggest purchase of my life and sacrifices will have to be made. I think there is a minority that would be relying on a crash, or being lazy, but i think the overwhelming majority are likeminded people who have a deposit but can't see a sensible way onto the housing market, and a significant drop in house prices seems the only sensible thing.

I think there is no compromise in a crash, there are winners and losers, and there doesn't appear to be a middle ground. People have jumped onto the housing market willy nilly desperate to get a home, at any cost, pulling house prices up further and away from us, those people would of known the risk they took at the time. If it was to bank on high equity gains, and it crashes, then i frankly don't feel bad at all. What remains is if we didn't have this 'sheep-like' herd mentality then the market may be in a better condition than it is now. We're not all doom-mongerers, but there will need to be a significant correction in the market in the not too distant future that will level the playing field. And that signifcant correction i'm certain based on the evidence will be a 'crash'.

Regards,

Lewis

[GCS15]

Surely Tim (nice but dim) is a wind-up merchant?

Tim only made one post = Troll