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Hpi's Bleak Reality Hits Women: "i'd Prefer [Prices] Halved Even Though I Lose Out"

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hpi's bleak reality hits women: "I'd prefer [prices] halved even though I lose out"

abc1 female focus group in solihull really get it - "gloating...greed...shortsightedness" leading to children being screwed.

Almost complete alignment of their views with this site and allegedly concerns reflected across the country...

Looks like whichever Party capable of sorting this mess out would clean up at an election. Instead, all we get are the Greens.

19.06 minutes in, enjoy:

Womans Hour focus group

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That was a great listen. Lots of common sense.

Everyday, more and more people are joining the "want a HPC" cohort. More and more renting, more younger people / immigrants coming into the (would-be) FTB category, and homeowners with kids who can see beyond their own personal greed. The "want HPI forever" cohort are commensurately shrinking, and starting to really look like the "old guard". I can only think that there's a political and mainstream media conspiracy to keep house prices as a non-issue (I say conspiracy, based on government props and bailouts and everything we've seen in the last 7 years).

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Good find. It's interesting though, one of the women mentioning the US, Canada, Germany as places with a more healthy attitude to housing, oblivious to the fact that they have had, or are having, house price inflation problems.

And then the guests on the show displayed similar naivety. They talked about lenders throwing money at people, but I'm not sure they identified that as a key driver, and failed to identify speculation as the other key driver.

And of course, started talking about building, wbich is the standard answer from somebody that does not understand the nature of property bubbles (or is willfully ignoring it).

I really think the british public need education more than anything else if we're ever going to cut the head of this monster before it eats us alive.

The presenter - "prices halving *chortle*". You better believe it woman, it happens. Did you not notice Ireland popping?

Of course not.

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That was a great listen. Lots of common sense.

Everyday, more and more people are joining the "want a HPC" cohort. More and more renting, more younger people / immigrants coming into the (would-be) FTB category, and homeowners with kids who can see beyond their own personal greed. The "want HPI forever" cohort are commensurately shrinking, and starting to really look like the "old guard". I can only think that there's a political and mainstream media conspiracy to keep house prices as a non-issue (I say conspiracy, based on government props and bailouts and everything we've seen in the last 7 years).

I'm not sure its a conspiracy, more like a sort of 'oil tanker momentum'. You have to say though, despite politicians, estate agents, house-builders and general vested interest views swamping the media, it still couldn't stop a bunch of women in Solihull thinking through reality and telling it like it is.

Theres also a reluctance to engage a difficult and controversial problem - I'm fairly virulently anti-UKIP (at least its current neo-racist version) but I do accept the establishment generally blundered on with immigration ignoring rising resentment.

What we need next is the BBC and other media to start looking seriously at how they frame the debate and the 'experts' they employ to comment. Good on Woman Hour though - interesting what happens when you take the VI's out of the equation !

I wonder who will be the first politician to show some leadership ?

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Good find. It's interesting though, one of the women mentioning the US, Canada, Germany as places with a more healthy attitude to housing, oblivious to the fact that they have had, or are having, house price inflation problems.

And then the guests on the show displayed similar naivety. They talked about lenders throwing money at people, but I'm not sure they identified that as a key driver, and failed to identify speculation as the other key driver.

And of course, started talking about building, wbich is the standard answer from somebody that does not understand the nature of property bubbles (or is willfully ignoring it).

I really think the british public need education more than anything else if we're ever going to cut the head of this monster before it eats us alive.

The presenter - "prices halving *chortle*". You better believe it woman, it happens. Did you not notice Ireland popping?

Of course not.

That was an interesting moment ! Confrontation between rigidly establishment thinking and harsh reality.

The interviewee was simply expressing that compared to the increasingly obvious damage hpi was doing she couldn't give a toss what her house price was. Foolish of the presenter to scoff: That is the political crux of it, and if the economics are crazily out of control, even if one directional, then all bets are off as to what could happen next.

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My guess is it's women whose children are probably in their late teens or early twenties (lets say 50ish) who have now realised that their children can't afford to buy, plus their parents (mid-70s or 80s) whose grand-children can't afford a home. Plus women in their 20s or 30s who can't afford to buy. So hardly unsurprising that they are beginning to get the real picture.

Similarly I suspect the most anti-HPC crowd will be those in their 40's who bought a decade or so ago (or even worse during the bubble) and whose children probably aren't even in their early teens yet, and their parents (probably in their 60s - the baby boomers we love to hate). This group will hold out until HPI starts to have a negative impact on their families.

I hope the nesting instinct that (in part) helped drive HPI is now going to put pressure on the government to do something as plenty of women won't want to wait until their late 30s to have a family (and their mothers probably don't want to wait who knows how long before they have grandchildren).

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My guess is it's women whose children are probably in their late teens or early twenties (lets say 50ish) who have now realised that their children can't afford to buy, plus their parents (mid-70s or 80s) whose grand-children can't afford a home. Plus women in their 20s or 30s who can't afford to buy. So hardly unsurprising that they are beginning to get the real picture.

Similarly I suspect the most anti-HPC crowd will be those in their 40's who bought a decade or so ago (or even worse during the bubble) and whose children probably aren't even in their early teens yet, and their parents (probably in their 60s - the baby boomers we love to hate). This group will hold out until HPI starts to have a negative impact on their families.

I hope the nesting instinct that (in part) helped drive HPI is now going to put pressure on the government to do something as plenty of women won't want to wait until their late 30s to have a family (and their mothers probably don't want to wait who knows how long before they have grandchildren).

This^^^^^^i`m seeing it more and more as the years drift by,i have seen first hand some of the avid HPI`ers of ten years ago do a u turn when they realise their children have no chance of being able to afford to by a place of their own and perhaps even rent a place

And yes the number of brooding potential grandmothers will all so add to the numbers

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It is all those divorced ladies who demanded custody of the kids now realising that, once they turn 18, they will not be able to off-load them and find themselves a new bloke. Much harder to find a bloke when your 20-something kids still live with you.

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And yes the number of brooding potential grandmothers will all so add to the numbers

indeed.

the emphasis on "potential", and will remain "potential" longer and longer the higher the prices go.

serious point, the women's vote is certainly an important factor in this one, every woman is fully aware of the biological clock..and wants a secure nest to rear offspring.that's why ownership is seen as the ideal.most women ideally want to be fully settled by about 30, not much more...and now the average first time buyer is something like 35.....leaving kids that late has all sorts of medical issues and they get progressively worse at the clock ticks away.

I am very glad the worm is starting to turn and there is a bit more of a debate going on about "what kind of future are we leaving for our kids?"

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But if the reality of THEIR house falling in value it will be a different story, still their area is unique and their road is special so other prices may fall but not the price of their property. Same old same old.

Ten years ago i know you would have been right, but now , the kids have grown up the shoe is on the other foot, but there are those in a position so highly leveraged that it would be akin to turkeys voting for christmas ,but they can see the problem,from both sides of the fence which makes them less likely to admit it as they can now see they have not only played their part in causing the problem they have also screwed themselves at the same time

I`m just talking about people i know personally and believe me some of these people could not wait to tell you how much they made on their house and could not see no downside ,they would looked at me like i had grown another head when i said something to the contrary,now i just say i told you so ,they just look at me sheepishly now instead of like i was daft

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This^^^^^^i`m seeing it more and more as the years drift by,i have seen first hand some of the avid HPI`ers of ten years ago do a u turn when they realise their children have no chance of being able to afford to by a place of their own and perhaps even rent a place

And yes the number of brooding potential grandmothers will all so add to the numbers

Absolutely. I would go as far as to say that there has been a sea-change in attitudes to HPI - this is nothing like the early 2000's, very little fanfare about rising prices amongst anyone I know, or even in the press. I think everyone can see the disconnect now between prices and earnings.

Whether or not the govt notices this change in the electorate is a moot point, as I'm not convinced their interference has ever been for the benefit of home buyers - only the sellers and banks. I also believe this was by design.

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Those boomers in their lovely big houses aren't going to have any grandchildren

Are

Sad

No pity

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Those boomers in their lovely big houses aren't going to have any grandchildren

Are

Sad

No pity

Not going to be seeing much of their children either - too busy paying the bills, chasing whatever half decent paying job they can get the other side of the country.

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indeed.

the emphasis on "potential", and will remain "potential" longer and longer the higher the prices go.

serious point, the women's vote is certainly an important factor in this one, every woman is fully aware of the biological clock..and wants a secure nest to rear offspring.that's why ownership is seen as the ideal.most women ideally want to be fully settled by about 30, not much more...and now the average first time buyer is something like 35.....leaving kids that late has all sorts of medical issues and they get progressively worse at the clock ticks away.

I am very glad the worm is starting to turn and there is a bit more of a debate going on about "what kind of future are we leaving for our kids?"

Is it yet though ? I mean a voting factor quite yet ? The women in the focus group were the abc1 + I thought a little older and more experienced than your average 30yr old (apologies to any of those women if...!).

As an 'issue' for women approaching/leaving 30, I will second that - I know loads for whom its a major major 'issue' but its ill thought through and few seem to have connected it back to general politics. 'its the estate agents fault' probably sums up the general level of analysis.

That said, to contradict myself, I imagine the daughters and sons of the Solihull group will have their parents to helping them piece it together. But while it will be an issue this election, unless one of the parties has been secretly crafting policy on the back of a think-tank, I doubt if the policy will match the depth of understanding that is starting to emerge from groups such as these.

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Is it yet though ? I mean a voting factor quite yet ? The women in the focus group were the abc1 + I thought a little older and more experienced than your average 30yr old (apologies to any of those women if...!).

As an 'issue' for women approaching/leaving 30, I will second that - I know loads for whom its a major major 'issue' but its ill thought through and few seem to have connected it back to general politics. 'its the estate agents fault' probably sums up the general level of analysis.

That said, to contradict myself, I imagine the daughters and sons of the Solihull group will have their parents to helping them piece it together. But while it will be an issue this election, unless one of the parties has been secretly crafting policy on the back of a think-tank, I doubt if the policy will match the depth of understanding that is starting to emerge from groups such as these.

My guess would be not quite yet but could be very much so by the end of the next parliament

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Similarly I suspect the most anti-HPC crowd will be those in their 40's who bought a decade or so ago (or even worse during the bubble) and whose children probably aren't even in their early teens yet, and their parents (probably in their 60s - the baby boomers we love to hate). This group will hold out until HPI starts to have a negative impact on their families.

Thankfully there aren't many 40-somethings in position of power - apart from half the Cabinet...

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They were older women who had no mortgage.

If they had a 200k mortgage on a 240 k house they would not think "hope the value halves leaving me with 80k negative equity"

As it stands halving the value would leave them with a house worth more than they paid and a good chance of moving the kids out.

They still only think about what is best for themselves.

What they fail to understand is the economic conditions required to force government into allowing 50%drops means their children are unlikely to have jobs, and will therefore likely still be at home with them!

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My guess is it's women whose children are probably in their late teens or early twenties (lets say 50ish) who have now realised that their children can't afford to buy, plus their parents (mid-70s or 80s) whose grand-children can't afford a home. Plus women in their 20s or 30s who can't afford to buy. So hardly unsurprising that they are beginning to get the real picture.

Similarly I suspect the most anti-HPC crowd will be those in their 40's who bought a decade or so ago (or even worse during the bubble) and whose children probably aren't even in their early teens yet, and their parents (probably in their 60s - the baby boomers we love to hate). This group will hold out until HPI starts to have a negative impact on their families.

I hope the nesting instinct that (in part) helped drive HPI is now going to put pressure on the government to do something as plenty of women won't want to wait until their late 30s to have a family (and their mothers probably don't want to wait who knows how long before they have grandchildren).

Nice sweeping generalisation. I, and several of my colleagues, are early 40's, bought over 10 years ago, have young children and nearly all would love a HPC to make things better for all.

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They were older women who had no mortgage.

If they had a 200k mortgage on a 240 k house they would not think "hope the value halves leaving me with 80k negative equity"

As it stands halving the value would leave them with a house worth more than they paid and a good chance of moving the kids out.

They still only think about what is best for themselves.

What they fail to understand is the economic conditions required to force government into allowing 50%drops means their children are unlikely to have jobs, and will therefore likely still be at home with them!

That's the thing, if they have children who are 18 it's quite possible that they bought their house 20+ years ago or maybe 15 years ago (when it became apparent a bigger house might be needed). If they'd have bought their new build 3-bed semi in 2000 for say £80k, today it's probably valued as being worth £200k (depends on where you live of course). Even if it halved in price in their eyes they'd still have made £20k "profit".

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That's the thing, if they have children who are 18 it's quite possible that they bought their house 20+ years ago or maybe 15 years ago (when it became apparent a bigger house might be needed). If they'd have bought their new build 3-bed semi in 2000 for say £80k, today it's probably valued as being worth £200k (depends on where you live of course). Even if it halved in price in their eyes they'd still have made £20k "profit".

Always provided, of course, that they haven't MEWed.

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Nice sweeping generalisation. I, and several of my colleagues, are early 40's, bought over 10 years ago, have young children and nearly all would love a HPC to make things better for all.

My brother is in this camp. Early 40's, really good London wage, but stuck with his family (two young children) in a house which is a bit small. He's fully on board with HPC, and understands it would give him the opportunity to get somewhere bigger. Of course, he's not close to negative equity - that's a slightly different pressure.

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They were older women who had no mortgage.

If they had a 200k mortgage on a 240 k house they would not think "hope the value halves leaving me with 80k negative equity"

As it stands halving the value would leave them with a house worth more than they paid and a good chance of moving the kids out.

They still only think about what is best for themselves.

What they fail to understand is the economic conditions required to force government into allowing 50%drops means their children are unlikely to have jobs, and will therefore likely still be at home with them!

Indeed

Economic war it is then

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Nice sweeping generalisation. I, and several of my colleagues, are early 40's, bought over 10 years ago, have young children and nearly all would love a HPC to make things better for all.

My brother is in this camp. Early 40's, really good London wage, but stuck with his family (two young children) in a house which is a bit small. He's fully on board with HPC, and understands it would give him the opportunity to get somewhere bigger. Of course, he's not close to negative equity - that's a slightly different pressure.

Problem with one couple I know is that the rungs have spread too far - got a flat with BoMD but can't make it into a house, and that was before MMR.

Another political factor is/was the extent people believe they are an 'exception' i.e. 'well I can't establish a home but thats my particular problem, meanwhile life goes on around me, frustrating but I'm unlucky'. But eventually people work out they're not - you've done the math on your mortgage and all it takes a little thinking about other people's circumstances. Friends start confessing their difficulties. Parents take a closer look and then admit maybe things aren't quite the same as when they bought.

Letters start coming in to newspapers...a bit of idiotic policy is formed, a sticking plaster clinging on to the status quo. The ground seems fertile for developing a mandate - but we're not there yet. But I have to say it has been a while since i've been on a forum where the typical old boomer complains that the youth waste their money on iPads and iPhones...

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Another political factor is/was the extent people believe they are an 'exception' i.e. 'well I can't establish a home but thats my particular problem, meanwhile life goes on around me, frustrating but I'm unlucky'. But eventually people work out they're not - you've done the math on your mortgage and all it takes a little thinking about other people's circumstances. Friends start confessing their difficulties. Parents take a closer look and then admit maybe things aren't quite the same as when they bought.

To be fair, the exceptionality thing works both ways. People will understand that we are living in an environment in which it is much less reasonable for the younger generations to aspire to home ownership. However, in the face of all logic, they will still cling to the illusion: "But that surely won't affect me." or: "But that surely won't affect my children."

People who won't be able to buy a house probably have little impact on opinions therefore. It's only the people who weren't able to buy a house who will change perceptions. That is, actual blighted lives not potentially blighted ones, however seemingly-unavoidable that potential is in the cold light of day.

Edited by BlokeInDurham

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