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Email From A Local Estate Agent - It's All In The Headline

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I received this email from a very well established local estate agent this morning, actually signed by the managing director, who bears the same name as the agency:

It’s all in the Headline - Or Not !

I hope that you did not lose sleep when Nationwide announced the fall in house prices in February by 0.1%.

Reading their report they say that the annual increase slowed from 6.8% in January to 5.7% in February, a difference of 1.1% so not certain where the 0.1% comes from.

Also Nationwide say that their house price information is derived from “Nationwide lending data for properties at the post survey approval stage”. A fine bit of gobbledygook if I ever saw it. I think what they wanted to say was - after the mortgage offer is issued. The mortgage offer is issued some time after a property is first marketed and a sale/purchase price agreed. The data is historical and not in the here and now.

We have previously suggested a rise of 10% in local property values from the beginning of the year compared to the end of 2014. That figure is holding.

There's also a couple of other paragraphs below giving advice on mortgages and IFAs. Which nobody will have read, since they'll all be too busy pissing themselves at the first paragraph.

Well done Stuart - striking a blow for estate agents everywhere.

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Aye, he's a pro-fessional.

Received a fancy shaped thick card advert from one of our local EA's - the usual line that went 'We are doing so well selling houses, we need some more please! ' HA!

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Wow - that's quite a panicked email for a 0.1% drop. Do keep us posted with his ramblings on the way down - medical intervention might be required when we hit double digits :)

My thoughts exactly. I imagine this being written late at night with a bottle of scotch for company. Love the way he talks about losing sleep over a 0.1% drop, when it hardly even registered any interest here - a site dedicated to HPC :P

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Lol, that is hilarious, he expects people to take his prediction of 10% rises and determination that it is holding true seriously, when he clearly hasn't a clue when it comes to interpreting the statistics that suggest it isn't.

Let me spell it out to you Stuart, on the off-chance you are reading this:

In January, houses *were* 6.8% dearer on average than a year ago, now they are only 5.7% dearer on averIage. That's not a 1.1% change in average price, it is not even a 1.1% change in the rate of growth, it's a 1.1% change in the comparison to a year ago.

This February, houses got 0.1% cheaper than in January. Last February they got 0.6% dearer than in January, and 9.4% dearer than the February before that. That is a change in the annual rate of growth of -3.7%, and a change in the monthly rate of growth by -0.7%.

Annual house price growth did not slow. It didn't grow at all. It shrank. Went into reverse.

Must be really difficult for an expert to understand all this basic statistics.

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In which case offer to sell him yours and tell him he'll make 10% on it.

With a mortgage rate of ~4% that'll be 6% profit.

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Lol, that is hilarious, he expects people to take his prediction of 10% rises and determination that it is holding true seriously, when he clearly hasn't a clue when it comes to interpreting the statistics that suggest it isn't.

Let me spell it out to you Stuart, on the off-chance you are reading this:

In January, houses *were* 6.8% dearer on average than a year ago, now they are only 5.7% dearer on averIage. That's not a 1.1% change in average price, it is not even a 1.1% change in the rate of growth, it's a 1.1% change in the comparison to a year ago.

This February, houses got 0.1% cheaper than in January. Last February they got 0.6% dearer than in January, and 9.4% dearer than the February before that. That is a change in the annual rate of growth of -3.7%, and a change in the monthly rate of growth by -0.7%.

Annual house price growth did not slow. It didn't grow at all. It shrank. Went into reverse.

Must be really difficult for an expert to understand all this basic statistics.

I also love that he feels the need to bemoan the methodology after a 0.1% monthly drop. Seemingly the methodology was just groovy all the way up, but now it's shit.

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So full of shit, had mortgage approved before finding house, so it does not have to be the way stated and besides you would only index a price once not only the mortgage was approved but that it was consistent with the notional value put against the property and it had been surveyed as such. I bet this is where lenders lost a ton of money last time around with fictiional morgages - borrower runs up a string of debt and then arranges other parties to overbid on his propoerties, bank does not give a shit as passing off the debt to some other and the seller ring pockets the difference - no wonder the equity withdrawal figures are down.

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