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I could have sworn that I read a headline this morning (on my phone) about a potential rate rise in June in the US (hopefully leading to a rate rise here soon after), but now I'm at my PC I can't find any reference to it at all.

Did I dream this or can someone provide a link. Would be keen to know if it is likely true, or just one of those "ooh we might raise rates" statements that never happens (like the Bank of England are rather fond of)

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horses mouth

The FOMC's assessment that it can be patient in beginning to normalize policy means that the Committee considers it unlikely that economic conditions will warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate for at least the next couple of FOMC meetings. If economic conditions continue to improve, as the Committee anticipates, the Committee will at some point begin considering an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Before then, the Committee will change its forward guidance. However, it is important to emphasize that a modification of the forward guidance should not be read as indicating that the Committee will necessarily increase the target range in a couple of meetings. Instead the modification should be understood as reflecting the Committee's judgment that conditions have improved to the point where it will soon be the case that a change in the target range could be warranted at any meeting. Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of incoming data, the Committee is reasonably confident that inflation will move back over the medium term toward our 2 percent objective.

It continues to be the FOMC's assessment that even after employment and inflation are near levels consistent with our dual mandate, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run. It is possible, for example, that it may be necessary for the federal funds rate to run temporarily below its normal longer-run level because the residual effects of the financial crisis may continue to weigh on economic activity. As such factors continue to dissipate, we would expect the federal funds rate to move toward its longer-run normal level. In response to unforeseen developments, the Committee will adjust the target range for the federal funds rate to best promote the achievement of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation

Policy Normalization
Let me now turn to the mechanics of how we intend to normalize the stance and conduct of monetary policy when a decision is eventually made to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Last September, the FOMC issued its statement on Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. This statement provides information about the Committee's likely approach to raising short-term interest rates and reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings. As is always the case in setting policy, the Committee will determine the timing and pace of policy normalization so as to promote its statutory mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability.

The FOMC intends to adjust the stance of monetary policy during normalization primarily by changing its target range for the federal funds rate and not by actively managing the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. The Committee is confident that it has the tools it needs to raise short-term interest rates when it becomes appropriate to do so and to maintain reasonable control of the level of short-term interest rates as policy continues to firm thereafter, even though the level of reserves held by depository institutions is likely to diminish only gradually. The primary means of raising the federal funds rate will be to increase the rate of interest paid on excess reserves. The Committee also will use an overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility and other supplementary tools as needed to help control the federal funds rate. As economic and financial conditions evolve, the Committee will phase out these supplementary tools when they are no longer needed.

The Committee intends to reduce its securities holdings in a gradual and predictable manner primarily by ceasing to reinvest repayments of principal from securities held by the Federal Reserve. It is the Committee's intention to hold, in the longer run, no more securities than necessary for the efficient and effective implementation of monetary policy, and that these securities be primarily Treasury securities.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20150224a.htm

and Fischer on normalising the b/sheet.

Finally, with regard to balance sheet normalization, the FOMC has indicated that it does not anticipate sales of agency mortgage-backed securities, and that it plans to normalize the size of the balance sheet primarily by ceasing reinvestment of principal payments on its existing securities holdings when the time comes. As illustrated in figure 4, cumulative repayments of principal on our existing securities holdings from now through the end of 2025 are projected to be about $3.2 trillion. As a result, when the FOMC chooses to cease reinvestments, the size of the balance sheet will naturally decline, with a corresponding reduction in reserve balances.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20150227a.htm

Edited by R K

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Come June then they'll be talking September/October ..........

Theres no presser for the Oct mtg so that seems unlikely.

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Come June then they'll be talking September/October ..........

If they decide to do it they'll do it when they like. Formal dates won't matter - or they'll arrange an extra one. They've been talking rises for months years even and the modus operandi is to just anticipate a rise that never happens.

Edited by billybong

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If they decide to do it they'll do it when they like. Formal dates won't matter - or they'll arrange an extra one. They've been talking rises for months years even and the modus operandi is to just anticipate a rise that never happens.

Taper.......

End QE......

Patient......

Remove patient........

Data dependent......

First rise......

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Taper.......

End QE......

Patient......

Remove patient........

Data dependent......

First rise......

and typically

http://

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16733461

25 January 2012 Last updated at 19:40

Fed not to raise US interest rates until late 2014

Edited by billybong

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Sorry if this is a bit off topic but does anyone know how to hold savings in US dollars? I tried Lloyds (my bank) but they won't do it.

I can see Sterling depreciating once the "recovereh" puffs out in the coming months and we get a hung parliament / Millipede coalition, etc.

Edited by bubbleturbo

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Sorry if this is a bit off topic but does anyone know how to hold savings in US dollars? I tried Lloyds (my bank) but they won't do it.

I can see Sterling depreciating once the "recovereh" puffs out in the coming months and we get a hung parliament / Millipede coalition, etc.

Theres a few CITI Bank, HSBC, Nationwide IOM. Some charge/are not part of the FCSC cover etc.

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There's also UUP ETF for your pension

Like UK they've been saying they'll raise for the last couple of years. And it keeps getting pushed back and back.

Said many times, they MAY raise late this year or 16 but it won't be much (maybe 2% or so tops over a couple of years) and entirely unsustainable

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Sorry if this is a bit off topic but does anyone know how to hold savings in US dollars? I tried Lloyds (my bank) but they won't do it.

I can see Sterling depreciating once the "recovereh" puffs out in the coming months and we get a hung parliament / Millipede coalition, etc.

Opened one with Hsbc last year the account is in Jersey theres a yearly/monthly fee and NO FCSC cover, easy enough to do in branch

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Market was wrong. FED was correct werent they.

So far they've been wrong in their predictions - that is until the day that they're correct. Like the BoE.

I'm not saying that the latest one isn't of interest but that it's as likely to be accurate as the previous ones for the last 7/8 years or so and beyond.

Edited by billybong

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Central Banks have almost never been right about anything. Why? Bcos it suits their paymasters - the banks. The CBs are paid to look the other way AND fool the masses into looking that way too.

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The American economy is deteriorating at an alarming rate. More QE or something like it will be the end result at some point (or a massive war).

Subprime Consumer Debt Soars to 7-Year High - http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/subprime-consumer-debt-soars-to-7-year-high/

Shadow Of Truth: Our Deteriorating Economy - http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/shadow-of-truth-our-deteriorating-economy/

On Friday, after the big downside revision to the Q4 GDP, the Chicago PMI report literally crashed to 45.8 from January’s 59.4 reading – a 23% plunge. 58.7 had been expected by Wall Street’s brain trust. This was the biggest drop since the Financial Collapse of 2008. The new order sub-index had the biggest month to month drop on record.

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So far they've been wrong in their predictions - that is until the day that they're correct. Like the BoE.

I'm not saying that the latest one isn't of interest but that it's as likely to be accurate as the previous ones for the last 7/8 years or so and beyond.

About what?

Future is uncertain no?

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The American economy is deteriorating at an alarming rate. More QE or something like it will be the end result at some point (or a massive war).

Subprime Consumer Debt Soars to 7-Year High - http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/subprime-consumer-debt-soars-to-7-year-high/

Shadow Of Truth: Our Deteriorating Economy - http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/shadow-of-truth-our-deteriorating-economy/

On Friday, after the big downside revision to the Q4 GDP, the Chicago PMI report literally crashed to 45.8 from January’s 59.4 reading – a 23% plunge. 58.7 had been expected by Wall Street’s brain trust. This was the biggest drop since the Financial Collapse of 2008. The new order sub-index had the biggest month to month drop on record.

Maybe the FED - which is a much broader, diverse org than the BoE - is seeing QE as the cause of the above.

The Feds operating far away from NYC see QE as a booster for Wall Street and sh1tter for Main Street.

The US is an exceptional country - the level of trade in its ecoomy is much lower than the other larger economies.

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The West Coast port strike and the harsh winter
probably had a negative impact in February,
although it is difficult to gauge the magnitude. It’s
too early to conclude that February represents a
change in the relatively strong trend seen recently.
Nonetheless, the weakness in the Barometer points
to softer GDP growth over the first quarter than

previously expected

Commenting on the Chicago Report, Philip Uglow,
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators said, “It’s difficult
to reconcile the very sharp drop in the Barometer
with the recent firm tone of the survey. There’s some
evidence to point to special factors such as the port
strike and the weather, although we’ll need to see
the March data to get a better picture of underlying
growth.“
DOOM!!!

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