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For Those Who Watch The Stockmarkets


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I picked up the 2015 Stock Market Almanac and some of the data seems quite interesting. There are certain shares which behave remarkably consistently over the course of a particular month for many consecutive years. This also stands for monthly/quarterly FTSE350 Sector Index performance.

If the mantra about trends is correct would it a strategy of following previous years monthly/quarterly performance have a positive expectation or is it another fool's errand?

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So who's saying the us stock market is a better long term investment than the uk?

Just looking at Capital Gains. Using my Valuation Metric and if history repeats to trend then the US (S&P500) could see total 5 year capital gains as low as 3%. UK (FTSE100) on the other hand could be as high as 53%.

That said FTSE is heavily correlated to S&P at 0.93 so what would I know.

Putting my own money where my mouth is. My mechanical methods are forcing me to target underweight US equities by 33% vs 'only' underweight UK equities by 4%.

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Just looking at Capital Gains. Using my Valuation Metric and if history repeats to trend then the US (S&P500) could see total 5 year capital gains as low as 3%. UK (FTSE100) on the other hand could be as high as 53%.

That said FTSE is heavily correlated to S&P at 0.93 so what would I know.

Putting my own money where my mouth is. My mechanical methods are forcing me to target underweight US equities by 33% vs 'only' underweight UK equities by 4%.

Thanks.

But they don't have ed milliband

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The point this misses about leverage is that the companies themselves are often leveraged to the hilt to boost returns.

The points he makes about investor leverage apply almost equally to companies and to their bonds.

No they don't

Bonds and shares are limited liability

Personal leverage is not

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Oh for God's sake.

NOBODY suggests these guys are 100% correct. And WTH has THAT to do;w/ mkt efficiency anyway?

When even the most sophisticated investors are prone to blow up the unavoidable conclusion must be that markets are highly efficient most of the time.

Edited by zugzwang
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Then you invest as if the mkt is efficient. I'll invest as I know it's massively inefficient. How on earth do you think Warren and George made Billions and many others like them?

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Some really odd views on this topic, that seem quite removed from reality :blink:

'The market' is an auction. Nothing more or less. As prices bid higher you will reach an area of rejection, as you run out of buyers, and end up with a one way market, where only sellers are happy with price. Vise versa if price falls.

'A range' or 'balance' is a successful auction where buyers and sellers are happy. The money is to be made at the extremes, or rather risk reward is greater, where there are supply and demand imbalances (between buyers and sellers).

Edited by aSecureTenant
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Here's a good article on day trading:

http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=10032

A lot of people have asked me why so many hundreds of thousands trade short term in America. Almost all of them lose. Almost all of them base their trades on mumbo jumbo things that are completely random. The only constant is the vig they pay to the house, which is often 25% of their average gain or loss on the trade. The chances they'll end up a winner is less than the parts in a warehouse spontaneously assembling themselves into a beautiful girl.

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Then you invest as if the mkt is efficient. I'll invest as I know it's massively inefficient. How on earth do you think Warren and George made Billions and many others like them?

If the market were massively inefficient it would be easy to beat. It isn't. Very few investors have been able to demonstrate market-beating returns over statistically significant time frames. Ed Thorpe did it because he discovered what subsequently became known as the Black-Scholes formula in 1967 and used it to trade warrants and options years before anyone else did. Buffett did it by developing an encyclopaedic knowledge of US industry over decades.

Edited by zugzwang
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Then you invest as if the mkt is efficient. I'll invest as I know it's massively inefficient. How on earth do you think Warren and George made Billions and many others like them?

Buffet & Soros are completely different.

Buffets success is, for the most part, down to owning companies with rising earnings over a very long period throwing off oodles of cash which is reinvested.

Soros (mainly) by spotting unsustainable disequilibria (sometimes political) and riding his luck. Usually geared.

Chalk & cheese.

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Anyone recomend book for long term investment portfolio planning? Not day trading.

Investing with Anthony Bolton

Also google Ray Dalio animated video

Edited by Killer Bunny
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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
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      • up 5%



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