Killer Bunny Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 And Uncle Warren thanks God every day for the politicians in his back pocket. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bovinedealer Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 i think betfair would be a good place for you if you are into probability , but laying bets not placing them. basically anyone can be a bookmaker , old buddy of mine was making 5k a month doing this i prefer buying and reselling junk on ebay £600 profit this week Fair play sir. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tatty Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 I picked up the 2015 Stock Market Almanac and some of the data seems quite interesting. There are certain shares which behave remarkably consistently over the course of a particular month for many consecutive years. This also stands for monthly/quarterly FTSE350 Sector Index performance. If the mantra about trends is correct would it a strategy of following previous years monthly/quarterly performance have a positive expectation or is it another fool's errand? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
200p Posted February 28, 2015 Report Share Posted February 28, 2015 (edited) There's a list of good books here; http://shareinfo.myfastforum.org/The_Traders_Library_Thread_about1227.html And a mock online trading game http://progressive.powerstream.net/008/00102/edu/trading_simulation_game/start.html Edited February 28, 2015 by 200p Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 So who's saying the us stock market is a better long term investment than the uk? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wish I could afford one Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 So who's saying the us stock market is a better long term investment than the uk? Just looking at Capital Gains. Using my Valuation Metric and if history repeats to trend then the US (S&P500) could see total 5 year capital gains as low as 3%. UK (FTSE100) on the other hand could be as high as 53%. That said FTSE is heavily correlated to S&P at 0.93 so what would I know. Putting my own money where my mouth is. My mechanical methods are forcing me to target underweight US equities by 33% vs 'only' underweight UK equities by 4%. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Just looking at Capital Gains. Using my Valuation Metric and if history repeats to trend then the US (S&P500) could see total 5 year capital gains as low as 3%. UK (FTSE100) on the other hand could be as high as 53%. That said FTSE is heavily correlated to S&P at 0.93 so what would I know. Putting my own money where my mouth is. My mechanical methods are forcing me to target underweight US equities by 33% vs 'only' underweight UK equities by 4%. Thanks. But they don't have ed milliband Quote Link to post Share on other sites
wish I could afford one Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Thanks. But they don't have ed milliband ...nor Cameramoron Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 The point this misses about leverage is that the companies themselves are often leveraged to the hilt to boost returns. The points he makes about investor leverage apply almost equally to companies and to their bonds. No they don't Bonds and shares are limited liability Personal leverage is not Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 ...nor CameramoronWho's recently discovered gerontaphilia as a means of buying electionsThe triple lock oldie w#nkfest Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Si1 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 But then again Obama's public sector fetish Quote Link to post Share on other sites
zugzwang Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 (edited) Oh for God's sake. NOBODY suggests these guys are 100% correct. And WTH has THAT to do;w/ mkt efficiency anyway? When even the most sophisticated investors are prone to blow up the unavoidable conclusion must be that markets are highly efficient most of the time. Edited March 1, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Killer Bunny Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Then you invest as if the mkt is efficient. I'll invest as I know it's massively inefficient. How on earth do you think Warren and George made Billions and many others like them? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sPinwheel Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Then you invest as if the mkt is efficient. I'll invest as I know it's massively inefficient. How on earth do you think Warren and George made Billions and many others like them? Their gain = other people lost. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
@contradevian Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 (edited) Some really odd views on this topic, that seem quite removed from reality 'The market' is an auction. Nothing more or less. As prices bid higher you will reach an area of rejection, as you run out of buyers, and end up with a one way market, where only sellers are happy with price. Vise versa if price falls. 'A range' or 'balance' is a successful auction where buyers and sellers are happy. The money is to be made at the extremes, or rather risk reward is greater, where there are supply and demand imbalances (between buyers and sellers). Edited March 1, 2015 by aSecureTenant Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ash4781 Posted March 1, 2015 Report Share Posted March 1, 2015 Interesting comment on Tesco. I'd imagine a similar result if they'd bought J Sainsbury or even Morrison supermarkets instead ? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Umiapik Posted March 2, 2015 Report Share Posted March 2, 2015 Here's a good article on day trading: http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=10032 A lot of people have asked me why so many hundreds of thousands trade short term in America. Almost all of them lose. Almost all of them base their trades on mumbo jumbo things that are completely random. The only constant is the vig they pay to the house, which is often 25% of their average gain or loss on the trade. The chances they'll end up a winner is less than the parts in a warehouse spontaneously assembling themselves into a beautiful girl. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
zugzwang Posted March 2, 2015 Report Share Posted March 2, 2015 (edited) Then you invest as if the mkt is efficient. I'll invest as I know it's massively inefficient. How on earth do you think Warren and George made Billions and many others like them? If the market were massively inefficient it would be easy to beat. It isn't. Very few investors have been able to demonstrate market-beating returns over statistically significant time frames. Ed Thorpe did it because he discovered what subsequently became known as the Black-Scholes formula in 1967 and used it to trade warrants and options years before anyone else did. Buffett did it by developing an encyclopaedic knowledge of US industry over decades. Edited March 2, 2015 by zugzwang Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Killer Bunny Posted March 2, 2015 Report Share Posted March 2, 2015 That v few make a bundle in mkts means Jack. That most lose is down to them. Not the mkt. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
R K Posted March 2, 2015 Report Share Posted March 2, 2015 Then you invest as if the mkt is efficient. I'll invest as I know it's massively inefficient. How on earth do you think Warren and George made Billions and many others like them? Buffet & Soros are completely different. Buffets success is, for the most part, down to owning companies with rising earnings over a very long period throwing off oodles of cash which is reinvested. Soros (mainly) by spotting unsustainable disequilibria (sometimes political) and riding his luck. Usually geared. Chalk & cheese. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Guest_growlers_* Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 Anyone recomend book for long term investment portfolio planning? Not day trading. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
thejaksie Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 I personally think this is an excellent wholistic book about personal investment planning: Tim Hale's Smarter Investing : Simpler Decisions for Better Results Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bankstersparadise Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 Anyone recomend book for long term investment portfolio planning? Not day trading. "The most important thing" by Howard Marks is a must read. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Killer Bunny Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 (edited) Anyone recomend book for long term investment portfolio planning? Not day trading. Investing with Anthony Bolton Also google Ray Dalio animated video Edited March 3, 2015 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to post Share on other sites
R K Posted March 3, 2015 Report Share Posted March 3, 2015 After 15 years, investors watch #Nasdaq trade above 5,000 - the biggest #stocks then and now http://on.ft.com/1zAlphy Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.