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austrianec

Where The Votes Are (By Tenure Type)

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I saw the English Housing survey yesterday that said there are now more houses owned outright than with mortgages...and that private renting was growing fast. However, these stats are always by household and don't reflect the fact private renters can live five to a house, or that there are a lot of widows/widowers rattling around in houses they bought years ago.

So I thought I'd try to find out how many voters there are in each type of house. The 2011 Census tells us 22 million people were living in houses rented from the bank...but that figure includes kids. Stripping out kids needs some obscure data set (LC4103EW) and tells us stuff like the fact less than 10% of children's parents own outright. Finally we scale for e.g. the increases in private renting since 2011 using yesterday's Housing Survey, express as percentages...and we see voters split as follows:

32% Own Outright

33% Have Mortgages

15% Rent Socially

19% Rent Privately

(doesn't add to 100 due to rounding errors)

The other thing to think about is this...there are thought to be 1.4 million private landlords in the UK compared with 4+ million privately rented homes. In turns out both "households" would average around 2 occupants...so there are 3 potential renter votes for every landlord vote. It's not as big a difference as I would have thought and, when you factor in MPs being landlords, you can see why tenancy law hasn't developed much.

Having said that, I imagine the landlord vote will be mainly Conservative so, if Labour want to win the election, they should probably go after "the 19%" with improved tenancy protection...especially because, as richer young adults find themselves renting/remember the last Labour government, they're potential swing voters

Obviously the Conservatives have acted for homeowners over their term; their big issue is the number of older, outright owners who care more about other issues. Which is why they've introduced pensioner bonds and will probably spend their most their energy trying to win back voters from UKIP

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32% Own Outright

33% Have Mortgages

15% Rent Socially

19% Rent Privately

I wonder what percentage of each of those four groups can be reliably predicted to turn out and vote?

I don't know the answer, but I'd guess if you aimed off for actually voting (in other words looked at it through the eyes of a politician), then it might look something like this,

38% Of Voters, Own Outright

38% Of Voters, Have Mortgages

10% Of Voters, Rent Socially

14% Of Voters, Rent Privately

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I saw the English Housing survey yesterday that said there are now more houses owned outright than with mortgages...and that private renting was growing fast. However, these stats are always by household and don't reflect the fact private renters can live five to a house, or that there are a lot of widows/widowers rattling around in houses they bought years ago.

So I thought I'd try to find out how many voters there are in each type of house. The 2011 Census tells us 22 million people were living in houses rented from the bank...but that figure includes kids. Stripping out kids needs some obscure data set (LC4103EW) and tells us stuff like the fact less than 10% of children's parents own outright. Finally we scale for e.g. the increases in private renting since 2011 using yesterday's Housing Survey, express as percentages...and we see voters split as follows:

32% Own Outright

33% Have Mortgages

15% Rent Socially

19% Rent Privately

(doesn't add to 100 due to rounding errors)

The other thing to think about is this...there are thought to be 1.4 million private landlords in the UK compared with 4+ million privately rented homes. In turns out both "households" would average around 2 occupants...so there are 3 potential renter votes for every landlord vote. It's not as big a difference as I would have thought and, when you factor in MPs being landlords, you can see why tenancy law hasn't developed much.

Having said that, I imagine the landlord vote will be mainly Conservative so, if Labour want to win the election, they should probably go after "the 19%" with improved tenancy protection...especially because, as richer young adults find themselves renting/remember the last Labour government, they're potential swing voters

Obviously the Conservatives have acted for homeowners over their term; their big issue is the number of older, outright owners who care more about other issues. Which is why they've introduced pensioner bonds and will probably spend their most their energy trying to win back voters from UKIP

Are you kidding. My experience is that Labour supporters are just as likely to join the rentier class - they don't understand economics and think they are good people who are doing their tenants a favour by relieving them of their hard-earned.

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Quite a few private landlords round these parts who are public sector, social workers and the like. They very much consider themselves to be providing a valued service.

In fairness, having had such as a landlady before, they are generally the better sort of landlord.

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....only because people who know they have never had it so good vote to hope keep it that way....the rest have no hope so don't vote. ;)

They will when they are galvanised by someone who one inspires them to vote. That hasn't happened yet...

Edited by Si1

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Are you kidding. My experience is that Labour supporters are just as likely to join the rentier class - they don't understand economics and think they are good people who are doing their tenants a favour by relieving them of their hard-earned.

1 in 10 Labour MPs are BTL landlords, 1 in 4 Tories are.

http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/quarter-of-tory-mps-are-landlords-says-research/6524104.article

Although of course many ex Labour MPs (Tony Blair) are BTL landlords

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