Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
madmax2

Small Island, Not Making Any More Land

Recommended Posts

If I had a penny for every time someone has told me the uk is a small island and they're not making any more land, I would have a fair few pennies. Normally this is said to justify the prices, small housing size etc.

So, going by the above, is it different in any other country? Excluding wars, I would guess that in any semi-developed country things are pretty much stable...the country isnt getting bigger (ignore the dutch for now), and many of them are small already, or even smaller than the uk. Think most of Europe.

So we got some water around us, boo hiss...other countries have countries around them and cant expand either. I cant see how this justifies higher prices in this part of our planet. I'd actually pay more for a place near some friendly border, such that I can drive on a saturday "next door" and experience a bit of varied culture etc.

Methinks this is just one of those sayings they drum into you at school to prepare you for proper adult life...the one where you just pay without questioning.

I will report to the local brainwashing centre shortly.

Edited by madmax2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Japan has double the population of the UK, and yet a smaller houseable landmass (than the UK). House price values in Japan are 1/3rd the value (today) what they were in 1991. Population has grown since 1991 considerably, though now falling slightly. It's more about the economy + government, not landmass, population size, or the actual value of the bricks and mortar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

everybody on this site knows this already...what was it..something like 97% doesnt have a brick on it.

I'm just totally curious why the sheeple reckon (and believe) the mantra of small island, no more land is being made, applies to this spot on the globe, yet every other spot is apparently different

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If it were that, you could buy for next to nothing in Scotland. The population 100 years ago was still about 5 million.

Then theres Ireland. A massive bubble, despite still being nowhere near the mid 19th century population peak.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

everybody on this site knows this already...what was it..something like 97% doesnt have a brick on it.

I'm just totally curious why the sheeple reckon (and believe) the mantra of small island, no more land is being made, applies to this spot on the globe, yet every other spot is apparently different

Repeat a lie often enough and people will accept it as truth.

Most people are forced to live in cramped towns and cities, that are not allowed to grow due to the planning laws and green belt, so everybody has this impression that the UK is bursting at the seams.

NIMBYs and the national trust don't help either.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTL is the process of dividing existing homes into multiple dwellings.

This dividing is bringing on vast housing supply outpacing population growth. imo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTL is the process of dividing existing homes into multiple dwellings.

This dividing is bringing on vast housing supply outpacing population growth. imo

This has been going on for years.....not only that they have been pulling down sturdy well built Victorian and Edwardian homes and throwing up a block of flats of multi dewellings in its place...garden a tarmacked carpark.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drive down the M40 frequently....there isd nothing but green open land down that road.

Hong kong crashed did it not ?

Singapore maybe ?

House prices arent being driven by demand, they are being driven by speculation.

All speculative bubbles eventually collapse. If you can give me an example to the contrary i'll invest in it now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drive down the M40 frequently....there isd nothing but green open land down that road.

Hong kong crashed did it not ?

Singapore maybe ?

House prices arent being driven by demand, they are being driven by speculation.

All speculative bubbles eventually collapse. If you can give me an example to the contrary i'll invest in it now.

exactly. The insufficient supply argument is wrong on so many levels, not least that property bubbles are primarily as a result of cheap credit.

Fixed income, you lower the rate on a bond/mortgage you increase the price/value. The value of the property market IS the value of a bond / mortgage in aggregate

Edited by evetsm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And... with the new stock market record high, there's now - at last - another asset wealthy people can bandwagon into. And out of property!

(Don't underestimate this: stocks have been slumbering for fifteen years, which is just about as long as the housing market has been absurdly over-valued - mainly because people have piled in; now, hopefully, they'll be able to pile out, just as they did in the early 1990s)

:rolleyes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And... with the new stock market record high, there's now - at last - another asset wealthy people can bandwagon into. And out of property!

(Don't underestimate this: stocks have been slumbering for fifteen years, which is just about as long as the housing market has been absurdly over-valued - mainly because people have piled in; now, hopefully, they'll be able to pile out, just as they did in the early 1990s)

:rolleyes:

Yeah, now is the time to invest :lol:

Have a look, what's coming next:

140607-1.png

When it gets back to 4K, wake me up.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah, but "it's different this time"...

Remember: there's lots of 'money' floating about, looking for a haven. If the perception takes hold that shares are the place to be - rather than houses - then we could well see a big take off in the former at the expense of the latter.

(For your graph, you need to scale it to real terms, which means the most recent peaks are much lower than the 1999 peak, hence stocks can rise much more)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everything would indicate stock market is about to do a big pop but anything to drag the printed money away form houses is good.

Ill never forget the look on a property speculators face when after bitching about bad tenants, fixing stuff, doing up houses he "earned" the same as he would have done just buying some stock in sainsburies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTL is the process of dividing existing homes into multiple dwellings.

You make an important point. I'm in the minority on this forum in that I do believe restrictive planning regulations have played a major part in driving up house prices, particularly in areas of relatively strong employment. But I have to concede that the splitting up of family homes into flats makes it harder to come to clear conclusions. I used to live in Richmond, which I believe had the highest percentage of flats of any London borough, it was pretty obvious living there that not many of them had actually been built as flats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as fresh eyes to this land many many years ago I always used to ask the minicab drivers where I was when going out/coming back, because every damn street looked exactly like the last one...every house was almost identical to the last. You couldnt look around and think "oh...rich area...so this must be xyz" (I'm talking the whole of east london here...no distinction between dagenham, barking, west ham, leytonstone...it all looks exactly the same)...same dreary dreary places.

For a short while I also though people must be incredibly rich for having 4 cars parked otuside each house. The I realised most of the houses were probably built after the war using government support...so that explains why they look the same....maybe they had 3 designs to go on and that was that..

and the other thing I realised was that it wasnt a house...it was 4 houses chopped up from one big house at some point...hence all the cars....4 families.

Now there are even more cars, because Billy has grown up these last 10 years, and now has a job far far away because that is what it takes nowdays...but he cant move out...so add another car to the drive/street/pavement/wherever.

I play dodgems driving home..the road is straight but the cars are parked everywhere prett y haphazardly. Its not their fault, tis the situation that sucks. How many more times can you chop what was once ONE home into even smaller pieces (HMO breached the next level for sure)

Depressing isnt even the right word. I lived here almost two decades and have not seen ONE new road being built, or one new lampost go up. There's grass and emptiness everywhere though. But we will all huddle up together instead...is it for warmth? or increased council tax, increased reveneu per sqm without adding more services/infrastructure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I read recently that the population of London had just reach the same as it was in the 1930s. Ask most people and they would assume that the population of London was at least 2x that of the 1930s if not more. And yes Victorian houses that were used by one family are now home to two three or even four families.

The trouble with this statistic is that it can be used by politicians to pretend that we're not overpopulated. 'London is now only back up to what it was in the1930s!' True, but that's because a large number of Londoners were rehoused throughout the south east in new towns. Immigrants made up the shortfall but the native British didn't just disappear. All that happened was the south east became massively overpopulated.

The green belt makes it possible to say London has not got bigger in geographical terms, but this is patently untrue. Look at a satellite map and you will see huge centres of population outside the green belt which are effectively now part of London. Most of Essex to at least Billericay and Southend is built on, for example. Most of Hertfordshire up to past Watford is built on as well, etc etc.

Edited by Austin Allegro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I read recently that the population of London had just reach the same as it was in the 1930s. Ask most people and they would assume that the population of London was at least 2x that of the 1930s if not more. And yes Victorian houses that were used by one family are now home to two three or even four families.

London in the 1930s was pre-Luftwaffe and pre-sixties high rise council estates.

I bet the housing stock was better, even though most houses in London at that time would not have had indoor loos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   206 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.