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TheCountOfNowhere

Uk Property Sales Dropped In January, Hmrc Figures Show

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I see they managed to get this in the article

"House price annual inflation stood at 10.2% in England, 4% in Wales, 5.5% in Scotland, and 4.9% in Northern Ireland in 2014."

Bless them.

They must be s**ting themselves.

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"The slowdown has come with a thud. At the beginning of the year we were seeing movement but over the last few weeks there has been a change in the mood," he said.

I suspect the london collapse is spreading quicker than anticipated.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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quote "That is the lowest level since October 2013, and the fourth consecutive monthly drop in sales."

so.....going by other standards, we are in a house sales recession.

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quote "That is the lowest level since October 2013, and the fourth consecutive monthly drop in sales."

so.....going by other standards, we are in a house sales recession.

Gong by my standards, the crash has been happening since 2007, the next leg down has started.

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I see they managed to get this in the article

"House price annual inflation stood at 10.2% in England, 4% in Wales, 5.5% in Scotland, and 4.9% in Northern Ireland in 2014."

Bless them.

They must be s**ting themselves.

I think people know it's about to pop and are terrified

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I think people know it's about to pop and are terrified

A friend of my wife said last year....house prices have shot up...how will our children ever afford to buy a home.

At that point...I knew the crash was coming.

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Gong by my standards, the crash has been happening since 2007, the next leg down has started.

It's looking more and more like the can that was kicked down the road, just reached the end of the road.

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There are house price crashes.

And there are house number-of-sales crashes.

Over the last 10 years, the North has seen a big crash in the number-of-sales and small crash in their prices.

A number-of-sales crash leads onto to a price crash - eventually.

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A friend of my wife said last year....house prices have shot up...how will our children ever afford to buy a home.

At that point...I knew the crash was coming.

Nah.

A pub mate bought in 2006ish.

He's only had the house repo'd off him.

You'll have to wait til he buys again - in 150+ years going by his credit score.

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Going back to 2012 on NSA numbers, according to that graph.

I'm too stupid to work out why the non-adjusted numbers show a definite, repeatable bottoming "blip" every dec-jan...almost like a heartbeat. Does xmas really distract that much?

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There are house price crashes.

And there are house number-of-sales crashes.

Over the last 10 years, the North has seen a big crash in the number-of-sales and small crash in their prices.

A number-of-sales crash leads onto to a price crash - eventually.

The prices have also crashed, the owners just havent realised their losses and the official figures do not reflect this reality,

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Here's the chart from HMRC's release.

Next month should be interesting - that peak of the red line in 2014 was in February.

HMRCtrans0115.gif

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/405860/UK_Tables_Feb_2015__cir_.pdf

The OBR (Office for budget responsibility) provided a supplementary forecast for their property transaction forecast in November. After that release the Autumn statement had the Stamp duty changes (maybe because they were miles off track ), and they did revise the forecast.

I am struggling to locate the OBR Dec'14 revised property transactions to update the chart (there are yearly figures). I think what they did was change to outturns so bang on for the year and expected 300K Q4 (close to HMRC) and push the transaction volume increases further out into future years. The report suggested the OBR revised down the near term forecast but returned the rest to historic average and overall bumped up transactions by +1% due to the stamp duty changes.

http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/supplementary-forecast-information-release-20/

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I added the updated OBR Dec'14 forecast based on the tables they supplied (hopefully included correctly). Transactions are expected to take off. I suspect like the stamp duty change they'll need to hit these numbers so I'd imagine more support schemes will be in the pipeline.

obr.jpg

http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/pubs/Economy_Supplementary_Tables_Dec2014.v2.xls

post-6546-0-05722500-1424891781_thumb.jpg

Edited by Ash4781

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I added the updated OBR Dec'14 forecast based on the tables they supplied (hopefully included correctly). Transactions are expected to take off. I suspect like the stamp duty change they'll need to hit these numbers so I'd imagine more support schemes will be in the pipeline.

obr.jpg

http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/pubs/Economy_Supplementary_Tables_Dec2014.v2.xls

They also seem to be predicting that interest rates will rise but mortgage rates won't. Do these predictions make any sense?

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They also seem to be predicting that interest rates will rise but mortgage rates won't. Do these predictions make any sense?

I have not seen that one.

They are predicting an increase in both property transactions and house prices To 2020. I have not seen the wage forecast they give but presumably combined with the mortgage rate fforecast is required to drive the other forecasts.

I suppose it is possible that mortgage rates don't rise as interest rates go up.

This is not advice.

Edited by Ash4781

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