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Trampa501

Why Is Spain Recovering Faster Than Expected?

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Seems a lot of it is down to easier credit.

http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/web/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=%2Felcano%2Felcano_in%2Fzonas_in%2Fcommentary-chislett-why-is-spain-recovering-faster-than-expected

The upturn in domestic demand, traditionally the engine of growth in Spain, reflects the easier financing conditions resulting from the European Central Bank’s monetary policy interventions, greater investor confidence, labour market reforms and lower oil prices, all of which is spurring growth after three years of recession (which ended in the fourth quarter of 2013) and seven years of adjustments since the bursting of the massive property bubble in 2008.

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Nothing to do with having a general election this year (by 20th December at the latest)?

cp. the up-beat figures being published in the UK coincidentally just before a general election

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of course, if the bubble was built on credit, bust a little with a credit squeeze, when the taps are turned on again,the bubble revives.

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Obserevred from afar.

House prices have fallen a fair old bit in Catalonia - the only area of Spain I monitor; the rest is desert sh1thole.

There has been some labour market reform.

Spain has a limited unemployment fund. You can only claim for so long then you have to get off your **** and work. There's no sitting around on tax credits, getting your mortgage paid.

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I rang a Spanish office this week on Friday afternoon at 1600, as I needed to check something before it could be completed by close of business Friday. The answerphone message told me that the office hours for Friday were 1000-1400 (this is a multinational, btw). I had two thoughts:

1. No wonder Spain's economy is totalled. They barely put in a full week's work.

2. We are total mugs in this country for putting in a full week's work, when a strongly unionised labour force can opt out.

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I rang a Spanish office this week on Friday afternoon at 1600, as I needed to check something before it could be completed by close of business Friday. The answerphone message told me that the office hours for Friday were 1000-1400 (this is a multinational, btw). I had two thoughts:

1. No wonder Spain's economy is totalled. They barely put in a full week's work.

2. We are total mugs in this country for putting in a full week's work, when a strongly unionised labour force can opt out.

I pick option 2!

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A lot of UK public sector offices close early about 4 pm on a Friday. You can see it by the build up in traffic queues exiting their car parks at about that time.

Also maybe the Spanish know how fixed the economy is towards the bailed out banking and financial sector etc and like in the UK putting effort into the real economy is a bit of a waste of time - that is for most people.

They would rather be sunning on the beach - unfortunately UK people don't even have that choice - except maybe for a couple of days in the year.

Edited by billybong

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Is Spain really doing that well? These are forecasts, and even the forecasts go from absolutely appalling to merely terrible. The reality that confronts Spaniards today is 25% unemployment and youth unemployment over 40%, no wonder they're emigrating as fast as they can.

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I rang a Spanish office this week on Friday afternoon at 1600, as I needed to check something before it could be completed by close of business Friday. The answerphone message told me that the office hours for Friday were 1000-1400 (this is a multinational, btw). I had two thoughts:

1. No wonder Spain's economy is totalled. They barely put in a full week's work.

2. We are total mugs in this country for putting in a full week's work, when a strongly unionised labour force can opt out.

Siesta.....live to work or work to live. ;)

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of course, if the bubble was built on credit, bust a little with a credit squeeze, when the taps are turned on again,the bubble revives.

Spain's construction sector was hit hard by the burst. Now there has been an adjustment in prices, foreign investment is rising again, further encouraged by a more competitive Euro. There was always going to be a tide change. Despite the comment above the Spanish work hard, most companies may take lunch at 2 but resume again and open until 8pm with many workers staying late. Too much talent in the country not to succeed. The fact they have a great tourist presence doesn't hurt either. Anyone really see people stop travelling?

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Spain's construction sector was hit hard by the burst. Now there has been an adjustment in prices, foreign investment is rising again, further encouraged by a more competitive Euro. There was always going to be a tide change. Despite the comment above the Spanish work hard, most companies may take lunch at 2 but resume again and open until 8pm with many workers staying late. Too much talent in the country not to succeed. The fact they have a great tourist presence doesn't hurt either. Anyone really see people stop travelling?

The Spanish like most Europeans that want something will work hard if given the opportunity and ability to up their gain....human nature.....work does not only produce money when working for another away form home, something more of us are forced to do.....investment by working in and around the home, in and within the local community is just as valuable and productive.....hard work and investment close at home produces more, and pays higher dividends that people benefit from locally......not paid to strangers never seen or known in a foreign land. ;)

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been in Spain last week and witnessed some roadworks being done

workers at it from 0700 - 1230 then 1500 - 1900

rather less mechanised than it might be here, but overall seemed like faster progress was being made to my untrained eye

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Because it's winter. You simply can't work soon. It'll be too hot. Weather dictates culture. Much slower pace, and staff often not arsed about doing much (generalising). Almost zilch opens on Sundays except Chinese shops. Saturday afternoons not vastly different. Sunday is like a normal trading day in the UK. Unemployment figures are high but I'm not sure how arsed they are - I'd be marching on parliament if it was me and all my friends. I think cash flows around. They throw big money at unemployed for the first couple of years and then do deals to make you register as self-employed with cash lump sums. Away from the coasts I genuinely don't know how Spain functions.

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I had a look around Spain with the idea of buying a house there instead of the overpriced UK. I was put off by the barren desert like countryside, and amount of country houses (fincas) that had no mains power or water. The only bit I liked was Catalonia where is is green and not as hot but there the houses are not cheap. No such problems in Ireland, just too windy and too cold.

Anyhow at the moment buying a house that is dominated in Euros could be a bad idea? If the EU breaks up your house could be devalued by about 20% into the new currency. Plus the locals who were being paid in Euros now earn paesatas or whatever again--- but they still have a euro mortgage to service. I think that would cause a big problem in the economy and lots of bad loans again. Again how likely is it that they will just keep kicking the can down the road to keep the EU going.

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House prices have fallen a fair old bit in Catalonia - the only area of Spain I monitor; the rest is desert sh1thole.

Doesn't sound like you've ever ventured far north. This sort of thing is a regular occurrence in some parts.

Nevada-graz-280213-46-.jpg

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'Recovering faster than expected'

Don't see it personally. Don't see any significant drop in high unemployment. Mortgage evictions running in thousands. EU sanctions backlash and reduced tourism numbers to come . . .

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I had a look around Spain with the idea of buying a house there instead of the overpriced UK. I was put off by the barren desert like countryside, and amount of country houses (fincas) that had no mains power or water. The only bit I liked was Catalonia where is is green and not as hot but there the houses are not cheap. No such problems in Ireland, just too windy and too cold.

Anyhow at the moment buying a house that is dominated in Euros could be a bad idea? If the EU breaks up your house could be devalued by about 20% into the new currency. Plus the locals who were being paid in Euros now earn paesatas or whatever again--- but they still have a euro mortgage to service. I think that would cause a big problem in the economy and lots of bad loans again. Again how likely is it that they will just keep kicking the can down the road to keep the EU going.

Catalonia is the prettiest part of the med coast, but you don't get the long summers/warm winters there. The Atlantic coast is better than Catalonia but it rains a lot. If you're not too bothered about being near the sea then there's plenty of good scenery but most people don't see it because they stick to the motorways that tend to cut through the plain.

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'Recovering faster than expected'

Don't see it personally. Don't see any significant drop in high unemployment. Mortgage evictions running in thousands. EU sanctions backlash and reduced tourism numbers to come . . .

Whether you see it or not, various facts and figures confirm the view that Spain (as per various economists) has entered a "virtuous circle" (you can google that)

Overseas tourist numbers are UP already this year (contrary to your claim of reduced numbers) and even internal tourism is rising again. Car exports for January are up 23.5% year on year.

400,000 jobs created last year - maybe not enough yet, but it's estimated the recovery in the construction sector will now start to soak up workers (for the record, the housing sector is forecast to grow 1.5% this year and 5% in 2016).

There are 2 things though that may be a drag on the economy continuing to grow. A further breakout of Catalan nationalism, and a growing pensioner population (Spain pays out generous pensions to those who've contributed, far above the UK pension).

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Overseas tourist numbers are UP already this year (contrary to your claim of reduced numbers)
Actually, I said: 'numbers to come'. (It is only Feb.) Russians were travelling to Spain in 'overwhelming numbers' and credited with 'saving the sector'. Now the ruble has halved in value, it is difficult to be optimistic about the summer. In fact, Greece and Cyprus are bracing for a very thin time.

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Although it's from an agents' viewpoint - this article summarises why the property market in Spain is recovering. Prices are at a floor, people are looking from other countries where prices are stupidly high eg the UK, and the weakening Euro makes prices even more attractive. It all adds up to a property market waking up, and starting to employ people again

http://spanish-property.net/say-spanish-property-market-recovering/9385/

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