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Are We All Suddenly Feeling A Bit More Positive?

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Am I imagining it, or do things seem to have turned a corner? Will we look back on Feb 15 as the turning point? Many things seemed to have aligned which reflect the market returning to sanity... e.g.

China

Russia/Ukraine

Greece stand up to EU

Oil price dip

Baltic Dry Index dip

UK Retail Sales dip

Iraq/Syria/Libya instability

...and of course people realising London prices are f*****g ludicrous, and actually, tulip bulbs are JUST TULIP BULBS.

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A turning point Wurzel, exchanged on a house and done well in his appraisal male31-male-smiley-whistle-smiley-emotic

One question, why is Gold not performing (btw I don't buy the Max Keizer/zero hedge manipulation excuses). Looking at the chart I would say it's heading to $800 in a bear market, but if the economy really had tuned wouldn't gold be heading up?

Mayby if stocks tank it will rise? Caught the BBC Propaganda spouting that stocks were at all time highs this week.

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Are we? Have the politicians etc unloaded their BTL portfolios?

There's your answer.

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Seriously, I think it's happening. The policies of this parliament were one desperate attempt after another to put off the evil day, and the only issue is whether the HPC will happen before May.

For a HPC to start anytime you need two things:

  • Supply of sellers who are willing and able to accept lower prices (Panic)
  • Limited supply of credit (Panic)

So perhaps just one thing panic, but then won;t the government/BOE just step in to prevent the evil asset deflation?

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Maybe you're right: there will be a period of stagnation, but I think it's widely accepted that prices are far too high. I reckon second or third steppers are running out of secured credit. It's not just anecdote, we see price reductions in central London.

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Maybe you're right: there will be a period of stagnation, but I think it's widely accepted that prices are far too high. I reckon second or third steppers are running out of secured credit. It's not just anecdote, we see price reductions in central London.

We've had years of stagnation, nothing happening.

The London circus is nothing more than a circus, a distratction for people clinging on the their fingertips.

Outside of the smoke you cannot use the term market - its more of a bitumen tar drip.

Seriously, my home town market stopped in 2004. There's been some sales, but about 10% of the expected.

There are roads where the LR data shows 4-5 sales on a road til 2004, then .... nothing.

There are houses that have been on and off sale for 10 years!

If a houses in a ra take more than 3 years to sell then you will find banks very reluctant to lend to buyers.

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We've had years of stagnation, nothing happening.

The London circus is nothing more than a circus, a distratction for people clinging on the their fingertips.

Outside of the smoke you cannot use the term market - its more of a bitumen tar drip.

Seriously, my home town market stopped in 2004. There's been some sales, but about 10% of the expected.

There are roads where the LR data shows 4-5 sales on a road til 2004, then .... nothing.

There are houses that have been on and off sale for 10 years!

If a houses in a ra take more than 3 years to sell then you will find banks very reluctant to lend to buyers.

Seems like that. There is some turnover at the low end, but there are almost zero second steppers and the boomers who occupy such homes are in no NEED to sell.

The house were buying was new in 1984 and it's the first time it's come to market. I think it just goes to show how often people in that generation need to move for work. Young people rent because of job insecurity.

Having said that, this is the best value house I have seen this week I viewed it in November at about £200k, should think that it would sell in a few weeks as it's an executor sale. Massive garden, quite impressive, but requires some work.

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I guess this stagnation may continue as long as the retiring boomers are cosseted by the state.

You say that, but the Scarborough rightmove pages are filled with empty houses where you can still see little-old lady spodgemarks on the carpet.

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It's not boomers per we

It's boomers who had a university degree when only 10% of the population went to university

It's boomers with defined benefit pensions

A house is not worth what you paid for it.

Its worth what the person buying off you pays for it.

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Am I imagining it, or do things seem to have turned a corner? Will we look back on Feb 15 as the turning point? Many things seemed to have aligned which reflect the market returning to sanity... e.g.

China

Russia/Ukraine

Greece stand up to EU

Oil price dip

Baltic Dry Index dip

UK Retail Sales dip

Iraq/Syria/Libya instability

...and of course people realising London prices are f*****g ludicrous, and actually, tulip bulbs are JUST TULIP BULBS.

Add housing starts slump

Add expected hung parliament - ensuring no further interventions

The conflict issues mentioned i.e Syria and Ukraine are a source of great concern and terrible terrible suffering going on. I don't think they have any significant effect in resetting our buggered economy. But if they did - it is in no way to be heralded as a positive in the same breath as the other purely economic indicators coming our way at last.

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I am beginning to think MMR has left most of the population around my way trapped, volume of sales and places on the market are well below the lows of 2009

this is the bit i dont get, as far as i understand, in regards to the recent volume of sales and lack of property coming to market, dont you have to track back to when records began to see the same fixures? and as a proportion of population this ratio seems unprecedented.

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this is the bit i dont get, as far as i understand, in regards to the recent volume of sales and lack of property coming to market, dont you have to track back to when records began to see the same fixures? and as a proportion of population this ratio seems unprecedented.

To go back to the mid 90S is about as far as you can go with the land registry concerning actual sales heres a good site https://houseprices.io/ just select postcode the map view is a good tool

(top of the page after you have chosen the post code)

As forsale i use rightmove market trends and general observation, it will not capture the whole market but it`s about as good as you can get i would think

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this is the bit i dont get, as far as i understand, in regards to the recent volume of sales and lack of property coming to market, dont you have to track back to when records began to see the same fixures? and as a proportion of population this ratio seems unprecedented.

Well, MMR trapped or not - they could always STR. No one can claim they didn't have a great window to sell into, of very high prices achievable - with inventory on market pathetic, and buyers who've spent last few years pushing and falling over one another to pay ever higher prices... now pulling in more who see teaser rates being forever.

Not really happier, with Mr. Anti-HPC posting each day blaming marketing/fear and especially bankers, for the buyers-as-victims (as he was doing for buyers when house prices were 33% less expensive) in this market happily paying fortunes, so often claiming they're the smartest people ever, and renters are idiots.

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Am I imagining it, or do things seem to have turned a corner? Will we look back on Feb 15 as the turning point? Many things seemed to have aligned which reflect the market returning to sanity... e.g.

...and of course people realising London prices are f*****g ludicrous, and actually, tulip bulbs are JUST TULIP BULBS.

If and when it actually brings about falling house prices, I will be happier. 70-year-olds rattling around in large family homes (who according to many HPCers don't care about value of their homes) so intent on holing market hostage, so focussed on squeezing out every single drop of HPI for £800K houses; probably hoping for more HPI.

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5179679

If there were any rebalancing / tightening at all, it should all lead to the greatest HPC of all time - where those in financial position name their low buying price for such homes.

I want to read about HPCers buying for solid fair value and being happy; their families having a far more stable financial outlook for future ahead, rather than paying silly high prices as others choose to do in this market. It will be OCD retaliation from me when there's HPI Champions on forum, never having quite accepted they were to blame for being repossessed in the past and going bankrupt, still chip on shoulder for banks alone, with no stomach for a HPC.

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Nope, prices are high because of low interest rates. Borrowers are basicly maxing out their borrowing potential to beat the next guy. I don't see this ever changing, there is almost nothing that will prevent the banks/governent maintaibg high prices with low or even negative rates. It seems to have worked for them so far so why would they bother changing tact?

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Spring is in the air.

Greece is solved for the weekend.

Russia have gone home.

US is imprisoning its own.

petrol is really cheap.

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Nope, prices are high because of low interest rates. Borrowers are basicly maxing out their borrowing potential to beat the next guy. I don't see this ever changing, there is almost nothing that will prevent the banks/governent maintaibg high prices with low or even negative rates. It seems to have worked for them so far so why would they bother changing tact?

Because they have far less control over interest rates, jobs and inflation than you think ea boy

Edited by Si1

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