Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
wonderpup

Syriza Has Already Won

Recommended Posts

Whatever the outcome of the ongoing 'negotiations' Syriza has already won the battle for hearts and minds in the EU. They have done something that should have been completely ordinary, but in the context of the EU is quite extraordinary- they have actually represented the people who voted for them and tried to enact their mandate.

This is what has provoked outrage among the EU elite- if nothing else Syriza is making them look like the spineless apparatchiks they are- and they hate them for it.

The Germans seem to imagine the ongoing spectacle of a small state being crushed in it's efforts to escape from under an unworkable austerity regime will act as a deterrent to others who might be tempted to vote for similar parties in Spain or Italy and elsewhere.

I think they are mistaken- this display of inflexibility and apparent indifference to the plight of the Greek people will have the opposite effect- it increases support for those who claim EU is now a non democratic quasi dictatorship run by-and largely for the benefit of- the Germans.

The entire 'bailout' of Greece was from the beginning a cynical exercise in which banks-primarily in Germany and France- were the main beneficiaries- and that remains true today;

So, when the ECB swapped out its Greek bonds for new bonds that would not take a haircut during the second Greek bailout, the ECB was making sure that the Greek bonds on its balance sheet remained untouchable and as a result could still stand as high grade collateral for the banks that had lent them to the ECB.

So the ECB effectively allowed those banks that had dumped Greek sovereign bonds onto its balance sheet to avoid taking a loss… and not have to put up new collateral on their trade portfolios.

Which brings us to the other issue surrounding the second Greek bailout: the fact that 80% of the money went to EU banks that were Greek bondholders instead of the Greek economy.

Piecing this together, it’s clear that the Greek situation actually had nothing to do with helping Greece. Forget about Greece’s debt issues, or protests, or even the political decisions… the realstory was that the bailouts were all about insuring that the EU banks that were using Greek bonds as collateral were kept whole by any means possible.

This is why the current negotiations in Greece boil down to one argument: whether or not it will involve an actual restructuring of Greek debt that will affect bondholders across the board.

Greece wants this. The ECB and EU leaders don’t for the obvious reasons that any haircut of Greek debt that occurs across the board will:

1) Implode a small, but significant amount of EU bank derivatives trades.

2) Be immediately followed by Spain, Italy and ultimately France asking for similar deals… at which point you’re talking about over $3 trillion in high grade collateral being restructured(collateral that is likely backstopping well over $30 trillion in derivatives trades at the large EU banks).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-19/central-bankers-worst-nightmares-are-unfolding-greece

This is the scenario they are trying to avoid- but in their contempt for the democratically elected Government of Greece they will end up making this outcome all the more likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the Germans seriously underestimated Tsipiras. He's played a blinder diplomatically.

That said, I still favour default and hyperinflation as the cleanest, quickest route for the Greeks to get their diginity back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they want out ,but want to be seen as being forced out/to default (which it`s starting to look like )

But like the OP says they have won the game already as the hearts of most of the EUs population are with them for actually representing their voters wishes and not selling them down the road to the bankers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they want out ,but want to be seen as being forced out/to default (which it`s starting to look like )

But like the OP says they have won the game already as the hearts of most of the EUs population are with them for actually representing their voters wishes and not selling them down the road to the bankers

Yes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they want out ,but want to be seen as being forced out/to default (which it`s starting to look like )

But like the OP says they have won the game already as the hearts of most of the EUs population are with them for actually representing their voters wishes and not selling them down the road to the bankers

Hear hear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they want out ,but want to be seen as being forced out/to default (which it`s starting to look like )

But like the OP says they have won the game already as the hearts of most of the EUs population are with them for actually representing their voters wishes and not selling them down the road to the bankers

Agreed. Hopefully they'll stay brave and won't cave. Would love them to leave the Euro and announce some sort of "New Drachma Greek rescue bond" (as long as they default on the current debt\). I'd buy them just to as a way of helping and stick two fingers up to the EU bullies (and I don't even like UKIP). I don't know if the Greek government or indeed its people are aware of how much international support they have from the common man.

Edited by mikthe20

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whatever the outcome of the ongoing 'negotiations' Syriza has already won the battle for hearts and minds in the EU. They have done something that should have been completely ordinary, but in the context of the EU is quite extraordinary- they have actually represented the people who voted for them and tried to enact their mandate.

+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they are mistaken- this display of inflexibility and apparent indifference to the plight of the Greek people will have the opposite effect- it increases support for those who claim EU is now a non democratic quasi dictatorship run by-and largely for the benefit of- the Germans.

The EU is certainly not run for the benefit of the Germans, but rather for the european 'elite', the 1%, the banksters and the rich capitalists owning all the major corporations in Europe.

German banks =/= German people.

In fact here in Germany most common people are as pissed off about the EU as people in other parts of Europe, hence the rise of anti-EU parties such as AfD.

Edited by The Eagle

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They might win a pyrric victory. Certainly moral victories don't pay too many bills.

I'm hoping this finally jolts Germany awake to rethink the Brussels project. The Greeks need to get back to running a chaotic country largely based on dodgy shipping and tourism. With a crap currency they'll rightly be the holiday choice for millions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They might win a pyrric victory. Certainly moral victories don't pay too many bills.

I'm hoping this finally jolts Germany awake to rethink the Brussels project. The Greeks need to get back to running a chaotic country largely based on dodgy shipping and tourism. With a crap currency they'll rightly be the holiday choice for millions.

I thought all successful economies were based on overpriced piles of bricks, unserviceable debt and drug-addled prozzies.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, this is the sort of thing the Greeks can do when there backs are against the wall: http://wiki.phantis.com/index.php/Sortie_of_Mesolonghi

This piece of Greek:Ottoman history is quite a good analogy with the current situation, though swap the Turks for the Germans and swap the Gunpowder for Economic Collapse.

I do wonder how many German banks would need bailouts if Greece defaults?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, this is the sort of thing the Greeks can do when there backs are against the wall: http://wiki.phantis.com/index.php/Sortie_of_Mesolonghi

This piece of Greek:Ottoman history is quite a good analogy with the current situation, though swap the Turks for the Germans and swap the Gunpowder for Economic Collapse.

I do wonder how many German banks would need bailouts if Greece defaults?

And if so, a sign of incompetence on said banks. Surely they've had sufficient advanced warning to make provisions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Deutchesbank apparently has 70 trillion in derivatives. Or is it billion? Can't be billion as that seems such a trifling amount nowadays.

Anyhow, no one seems to care. I suspect it is too much for most people to get their heads around - even inside the bank.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And if so, a sign of incompetence on said banks. Surely they've had sufficient advanced warning to make provisions.

Looks like we'll be getting a second chance to have some bust banks... I really hope that if so they don't bail these scrotes AGAIN but somehow I think they might...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

38 min in it looks like he`s a man of his word cant see him caving in

Don't agree with everything he says but there seem to be a bit of HPC about him. He's got his opinions on what's wrong, and now he's going to try and act on those opinions, and he's not going to accept ******** in so doing.

Can't fault him for that...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Deutchesbank apparently has 70 trillion in derivatives. Or is it billion? Can't be billion as that seems such a trifling amount nowadays.

Anyhow, no one seems to care. I suspect it is too much for most people to get their heads around - even inside the bank.

Wasn't RBS heavily exposed at 1 point? May have changed, but it'd be ironic if the Greek default brought down a major UK bank.

I wonder also if Germany is having to play bad cop to the other EU good cops (who in secret are seeking to push Greece out yet blame the Germans)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   220 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.