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Uk Gross Mortgage Lending Declines 14% In January

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Gross mortgage lending in the UK declined to £14.3bn in January. According to data published by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) on Thursday, gross mortgage lending fell 14% month-on-month in January and 11% year-on-year.

Although seasonal factors will continue to weigh on activity levels for a while longer, we expect the underlying picture to pick up over the coming months, in line with stronger earnings and employment, gentle interest rate trends and recent stamp duty changes.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-gross-mortgage-lending-declines-105700188.html

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they again assume every last penny spare will be spent on the mortgage.

For some, they will be correct.

But that is not good for the economy

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Stronger employment?!

Yes, im sure all those newly self employed cake embroiderers and mobile hairdressers will be gagging to splurge their new found riches on a half million two up two down in Coventry

Agreed. I often look at fairy cake sellers at markets and think.... ok to make £30k per year, lets say you make £1 per cake PROFIT, you have to sell 83 cakes a day, every day. Or, 125 cakes per day if you work 5 days per week, 48 weeks per year. Even if you settle for paying yourself minimum wage, you still need to sell 60 cakes a day. These are not truly self employed people, they're just hobbyists who haven't done the maths, or don't need the money. Don't get me started on f*****g bunting and cushions.

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Is it collapsing mortgage lending that will eventually cause the banks to collapse?

Perhaps...although I'm sure the government will force people to take out mortgages by doubling HtB or somesuch.

Ultimately it is their own lending that provides the next level of their Ponzi scheme. No borrowers means Ponzi collapse.

As MISH has noted on dozens of occasions...it requires being wanting to borrow, not just people wanting to lend, and at some point down the road of asset price inflation, it doesnt matter If interest rates are zero, the principal becomes so large even zero interest rate financing isnt enough to goad people into it.

Just referring to the recent mumsnet thread...at 35 and even after having half of the bedsit paid for by BoMaD, its hard to justify her purchase. She has 5, maybe 10 if shes very lucky of childbearing years ahead. You cant much bring up children in a bedsit, so for most people who want children, whats the point of participating in that Ponzi?

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Look at that leap in 2002. Could that have possibly the year when tax credits really started ramping up?

Look at the jump in 2008. Could that be when loads of people lost their full-time jobs and susses out they only need to work 16h and collect the balance as tax credits?

Look at the fall in income tax recipts. Look at the never closing gap that is the UK budget deficit.

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Agreed. I often look at fairy cake sellers at markets and think.... ok to make £30k per year, lets say you make £1 per cake PROFIT, you have to sell 83 cakes a day, every day. Or, 125 cakes per day if you work 5 days per week, 48 weeks per year. Even if you settle for paying yourself minimum wage, you still need to sell 60 cakes a day. These are not truly self employed people, they're just hobbyists who haven't done the maths, or don't need the money. Don't get me started on f*****g bunting and cushions.

Dahling you are sooooooooo 2010.

Small batch nut butters are 'in' at the moment. TaTa.

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Dahling you are sooooooooo 2010.

Small batch nut butters are 'in' at the moment. TaTa.

:)

Perhaps the stall holders I saw are still trying to sell the cakes/bunting they made in 2010!

Don't forget flavoured marshmallow.... that is the latest fashion forward food edit.

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I am drying tomatos in the sun...should make a bomb, takes no energy costs.

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Gross mortgage lending in the UK declined to £14.3bn in January. According to data published by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) on Thursday, gross mortgage lending fell 14% month-on-month in January and 11% year-on-year.

Although seasonal factors will continue to weigh on activity levels for a while longer, we expect the underlying picture to pick up over the coming months, in line with stronger earnings and employment, gentle interest rate trends and recent stamp duty changes.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-gross-mortgage-lending-declines-105700188.html

Stronger earnings ?

For some maybe, wait until this years rises come up for negotiation.

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Of course, mortgage lending could be falling because house prices got cheaper and people didn't need to borrow as much - and we hadn't noticed! of course, with less being borrowed people would be spending more on other things giving the economy a lift. Oh hang on...!

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Agreed. I often look at fairy cake sellers at markets and think.... ok to make £30k per year, lets say you make £1 per cake PROFIT, you have to sell 83 cakes a day, every day. Or, 125 cakes per day if you work 5 days per week, 48 weeks per year. Even if you settle for paying yourself minimum wage, you still need to sell 60 cakes a day. These are not truly self employed people, they're just hobbyists who haven't done the maths, or don't need the money. Don't get me started on f*****g bunting and cushions.

LOL, someone in here once mentioned the term "mad woman jewellery business" which still makes me laugh and sums this up perfectly

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It will be interesting to see what effect Universal Credit has on the whole "self employed" benefits scam.

Maybe in London...cant imagine housing benefits limited to £26k (or even £23k) a year elsewhere will have much of an effect.

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Isn't a drop in mortgage lending a sign of growing inequality? Only serfs need mortgages, rich folk buy assets with cash. Cashed in pension pots next up to squeeze the serfs out of the market?

But no good for the banks. If people can buy with cash and no longer need a mortgage then they are worthless to the banks. The banks depend on the lifeblood of mortgagees (does anyone actually know what percentage of a banks turnover is from mortgage lending)? And the banks are the government's holy cow.

Edited by fru-gal

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Agreed. I often look at fairy cake sellers at markets and think.... ok to make £30k per year, lets say you make £1 per cake PROFIT, you have to sell 83 cakes a day, every day. Or, 125 cakes per day if you work 5 days per week, 48 weeks per year. Even if you settle for paying yourself minimum wage, you still need to sell 60 cakes a day. These are not truly self employed people, they're just hobbyists who haven't done the maths, or don't need the money. Don't get me started on f*****g bunting and cushions.

Don't forget to factor in the working tax credits (applies to self-employed as well now); the housing benefit and any other in-work benefits that may be claimable.

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I am drying tomatos in the sun...should make a bomb, takes no energy costs.

Haha, I laugh from first hand experience.

I know a couple who decided to set up a business making artisan cakes from hand-picked ingredients.

They aimed to bake the cakes in their home kitchen and hand-pick all the flavourings (herbs, fruit, etc) themselves.

They also wanted to deliver cakes by hand, and eventually run a stall at a farmers' market.

They took a small loan, and were very dedicated, but it was always going to be very difficult to scale up beyond a "hobby or lifestyle business". In the end, they started being unable to fulfil orders because they simply didn't have the capacity. They refused to make compromises (wouldn't hire a kitchen hand; or buy in fruit; or pay a delivery firm) and as such found that the firm had no chance of being their primary source of income. In the end they gave it up, disillusioned.

I'm not going to knock them for trying to set up a business, but in the end the realities did not match up with the pleasantries of their original hobby, and I think this did for their motivation.

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Isn't a drop in mortgage lending a sign of growing inequality? Only serfs need mortgages, rich folk buy assets with cash. Cashed in pension pots next up to squeeze the serfs out of the market?

The supporting Treasury documents published recently in the papers included estimations that the schemes wouldn't work if (when) it raised prices by >10%. If momentum is dropping seems a bit coincidental that along comes the next prop with relaxed relative rules vs OOP just in time, rather like a plan i.e. HTB3?

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Haha, I laugh from first hand experience.

I know a couple who decided to set up a business making artisan cakes from hand-picked ingredients.

They aimed to bake the cakes in their home kitchen and hand-pick all the flavourings (herbs, fruit, etc) themselves.

They also wanted to deliver cakes by hand, and eventually run a stall at a farmers' market.

They took a small loan, and were very dedicated, but it was always going to be very difficult to scale up beyond a "hobby or lifestyle business". In the end, they started being unable to fulfil orders because they simply didn't have the capacity. They refused to make compromises (wouldn't hire a kitchen hand; or buy in fruit; or pay a delivery firm) and as such found that the firm had no chance of being their primary source of income. In the end they gave it up, disillusioned.

I'm not going to knock them for trying to set up a business, but in the end the realities did not match up with the pleasantries of their original hobby, and I think this did for their motivation.

If you look into the restrictions placed on Fair Trade farmers they're very similar .... i.e. they prevent the farmers scaling up/using technology/making decent profit... hence I no longer buy Fair Trade.

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But no good for the banks. If people can buy with cash and no longer need a mortgage then they are worthless to the banks. The banks depend on the lifeblood of mortgagees (does anyone actually know what percentage of a banks turnover is from mortgage lending)? And the banks are the government's holy cow.

Think you will find all you need here in the vid http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/203321-adair-turner-monetary-policy-and-credit-supply-youtube/ there has been a massive change in lending patterns since the 50`s, IIRC mortgages are the main source of profit by a long way now

Edited by long time lurking

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Haha, I laugh from first hand experience.

I know a couple who decided to set up a business making artisan cakes from hand-picked ingredients.

They aimed to bake the cakes in their home kitchen and hand-pick all the flavourings (herbs, fruit, etc) themselves.

They also wanted to deliver cakes by hand, and eventually run a stall at a farmers' market.

They took a small loan, and were very dedicated, but it was always going to be very difficult to scale up beyond a "hobby or lifestyle business". In the end, they started being unable to fulfil orders because they simply didn't have the capacity. They refused to make compromises (wouldn't hire a kitchen hand; or buy in fruit; or pay a delivery firm) and as such found that the firm had no chance of being their primary source of income. In the end they gave it up, disillusioned.

I'm not going to knock them for trying to set up a business, but in the end the realities did not match up with the pleasantries of their original hobby, and I think this did for their motivation.

Were they teachers?

I've only ever seen that level of incompetent fckwickery from teachers.

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