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Tempest

Xmas Is Coming - Who Thinks We Have Had The Trigger?

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I know interest rates are static but there are international issues there which do not bode well for us either way (rates down, currency down, imported inflation; rates up inflation up, HP/consumer debt unaffordability) BUT

(and this is a bit of a gethering of comments from many other threads this week) I really think SIPPS will be it (not necessarily jusitifiably as I think the effect on the market of SIPPS would not have been great) as it is one of the last nominal price props torn away.

Ask yourself: Where is the money coming for debt service, council tax, energy bills, services (not goods) etc). Nowhere.

In the face of this I see it as impossible that there is enough cash to boost the market higher and if cost of living (witness council tax, utility bills etc) goes on up the market cannot stay static but must come down.

I think anyone selling in early 2006 will realise they need to price 10%+ down (plus sellers discount on offers) and THAT will spook people when it feeds through to the offical figures.

I see panic in July next year (and the early signs in March/April).

The HPC 2 year timetable from spring 2004 is about to become fact.

I wavered a couple of months ago on HPC but I warn you the retail/jobs/insolvency news in Feb will be dire.

Like it or not it is coming to pass.

The market does not want to believe it just yet.

I am checking the odds on GB NOT being PM in 2009. I will be putting a fortune on it.

Edited by Tempest

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With wintry weather on the horizon over in the US, oil is trading comfortably above $60 as I write and natural gas prices have hit all time highs in sympathy. Inflationary pressures will persist until the global economy switches into reverse by which time the housing market would have retrenched beyond the most vehement of VI spin.

As winter passes, oil (LSC) prices will endure further upside pressure due to the onset of the American holiday season once more and then, the inevitable hurricane season...

To me, Brown's folly will turn out to be his boast of the UK economy being able to withstand the global energy shock, especially as it's barely started IMO. If he's naive enough in the belief that the energy storm has been and gone, then he'll be sorely disappointed as he witnesses his chances of becoming PM, evaporate throughout 2006 as the UK economy succumbs to a lack of demand throughout most industry sectors.

Not that he'd have much time to contemplate as Rome burns, for he is Nero, the master fiddler of all time...

Blair for all his sins, will face renewed condemnation over Iraq, as he makes his excuses for not withdrawing our soldiers from Basra, as will be requested by their Governor after the elections. Failing to do so, will almost certainly lead to an ever greater degree of British casualties, as the locals join forces with Iranian insurgents in order to inflict serious losses upon our troops.

As to what all this translates to in terms of house prices?

Well, I think only an idiot wouuld believe that they're going to rise any further, as the year progresses. A defined change of sentiment is already taking shape, hence, all the bearish ammo of the weeks gone by.

Once the festivities are done and dusted for another year and the foreboding sound of bills thud on the welcome mat. A new reality will have dawned upon the nation, and they'll be no going back on this occasion, except to the 70s that is. A decade of hardship and rebellion for many, but also an era of love and healing for the masses apart from at football matches, where matters were somewhat tribal I seem to recall.

I just hope we don't go back to painting our living rooms lime green or funky banana; and don't forget velvety wallpaper! Coooollllll man!!!!

As you dream of apocolypse this christmas, I dare you to spare a thought for those serving in Iraq, away from their families and trust their professionalism not to lead to a greater degree of UK casualties... I think you will find the locals in Basrah have no intention of supporting the Iranians as the vast religious majority are fully in support of the UK involvement. But you wont read that on the BBC or in the mirror now will you?

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We've not had the trigger yet I don't think.

It'll be something shockingly close to home for people - maybe the gas and elec being switched off for a few weeks by the oil companies who can't be arsed with gordon's new taxes.

Or bird flu will suddenly be here and the NHS will tell people to sodd off cos they've not eaten oranges or bought dodgy tamiflu on the internet.

Or the NHS will sack all its nurses and only employ agency staff for £1000 an hour - because thats how much you have to earn to live near a hospital.

There've been lots of earthquakes around the world recently...

http://satellite.ehabich.info/

Would a really big quake in london bring it on? All these tall buildings adding to the stress on the earth's crust?

It might be something scary happening in the US or China which brings it on - something that'll bring financial disaster into 1 in 3 people's homes.

Will it be sudden and sharp or is this a long slow drawn out series of events which is the trigger? Don't know.

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With wintry weather on the horizon over in the US, oil is trading comfortably above $60 as I write and natural gas prices have hit all time highs in sympathy. Inflationary pressures will persist until the global economy switches into reverse by which time the housing market would have retrenched beyond the most vehement of VI spin.

in my opinion we had the trigger ages ago, and that was the leap in oil prices over the past year. i reckon it will only become evident in retrospect

As you dream of apocolypse this christmas, I dare you to spare a thought for those serving in Iraq, away from their families and trust their professionalism not to lead to a greater degree of UK casualties..

sorry no sympathy at all for the troops. the minute you go into someone else's country gun in hand then you are a fair target in my opinion.

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We've not had the trigger yet I don't think.

It'll be something shockingly close to home for people - maybe the gas and elec being switched off for a few weeks by the oil companies who can't be arsed with gordon's new taxes.

Or bird flu will suddenly be here and the NHS will tell people to sodd off cos they've not eaten oranges or bought dodgy tamiflu on the internet.

There've been lots of earthquakes around the world recently...

http://satellite.ehabich.info/

Would a really big quake in london bring it on? All these tall buildings adding to the stress on the earth's crust?

Will it be sudden and sharp or is this a long slow drawn out series of events which is the trigger? Don't know.

I don't believe in single triggers for events like an economic slowdown / recession. Usually these things are caused by a whole series of things happening and which one started it and which were merely symptoms of underlying problems is always hard to say - especially at the time. In a way the biggest and most obvius 'trigger' for economic problems is the high level of personal debt amongst consumers and this causes an underlying problem in the economy that will 'trigger' many other problems - such as the poor Christmas retail figures we are seeing now.

As regards bird flu, I have been extremely concerned to see that in the last few days governments and people within government have been taking this threat a lot more seriously and people have started to say that the mutation of this disease into a human pandemic virus is "a matter of when not if" an in terms of timescales that it could happen "anytime in the next three years, but it will happen".

I do not know what to think about this as I did not take this threat terribly seriously myself, now I'm not so sure.

If we do have a pandemic all bets are off, the world economy will be damaged in ways that no one could guess, heres hoping it doesn't actually happen.

As regards an earthquake in London, I believe you have to be on or near a fault line in order to experience a serious earthquake and it was my understanding that no part of the UK is on a fault line, consequently we cannot have and have never had a serious earthquake - only tremors from earthquakes a long way away.

So, in summary, I don't think the house price crash begins with someone firing the starting gun (although the decision on SIPPs recently springs to mind) more it will be like a pile up with one thing after another applying pressure to prices in a downward direction, unfortunately the economy will go in the same direction.

Edited by underpressuretobuy

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I don't beleive we've had the big trigger that will bring the whole pack of cards down in the next 6 months but I do think we are back to where we were 2 or 3 months ago. The bulls have done an incredible job of talking up the market using SIPP's as leverage.

Now SIPP's is out of the way I think we're back on track and prices will continue to fall.

Was going to view a property tomorrow which was heavily reduced but I'm going to call the EA to cancel and let him know the crash is back on and I'll speak to him in 6 months if he still has a job :lol:

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As regards an earthquake in London, I believe you have to be on or near a fault line in order to experience a serious earthquake and it was my understanding that no part of the UK is on a fault line, consequently we cannot have and have never had a serious earthquake - only tremors from earthquakes a long way away.

Actually we are on at least one, possibly two, fault lines. One runs through the midlands. Liverpool suffered some structural damage in an earthquake a few years ago, nothing really serious, but some walls were badly cracked!

Edited by FTBagain

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With wintry weather on the horizon over in the US, oil is trading comfortably above $60 as I write and natural gas prices have hit all time highs in sympathy. Inflationary pressures will persist until the global economy switches into reverse by which time the housing market would have retrenched beyond the most vehement of VI spin.

As winter passes, oil (LSC) prices will endure further upside pressure due to the onset of the American holiday season once more and then, the inevitable hurricane season...

To me, Brown's folly will turn out to be his boast of the UK economy being able to withstand the global energy shock, especially as it's barely started IMO. If he's naive enough in the belief that the energy storm has been and gone, then he'll be sorely disappointed as he witnesses his chances of becoming PM, evaporate throughout 2006 as the UK economy succumbs to a lack of demand throughout most industry sectors.

Not that he'd have much time to contemplate as Rome burns, for he is Nero, the master fiddler of all time...

Blair for all his sins, will face renewed condemnation over Iraq, as he makes his excuses for not withdrawing our soldiers from Basra, as will be requested by their Governor after the elections. Failing to do so, will almost certainly lead to an ever greater degree of British casualties, as the locals join forces with Iranian insurgents in order to inflict serious losses upon our troops.

As to what all this translates to in terms of house prices?

Well, I think only an idiot wouuld believe that they're going to rise any further, as the year progresses. A defined change of sentiment is already taking shape, hence, all the bearish ammo of the weeks gone by.

Once the festivities are done and dusted for another year and the foreboding sound of bills thud on the welcome mat. A new reality will have dawned upon the nation, and they'll be no going back on this occasion, except to the 70s that is. A decade of hardship and rebellion for many, but also an era of love and healing for the masses apart from at football matches, where matters were somewhat tribal I seem to recall.

I just hope we don't go back to painting our living rooms lime green or funky banana; and don't forget velvety wallpaper! Coooollllll man!!!!

I think the reason british troops are not coming back yet is because they will shortly be entering iran.

....same reason why troops aren't coming back from afghanistan.....look what's sandwiched between afghanistan and iraq!!!!!........coincidence?????...hmmmmm.

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I don't beleive we've had the big trigger that will bring the whole pack of cards down in the next 6 months but I do think we are back to where we were 2 or 3 months ago. The bulls have done an incredible job of talking up the market using SIPP's as leverage.

Now SIPP's is out of the way I think we're back on track and prices will continue to fall.

Was going to view a property tomorrow which was heavily reduced but I'm going to call the EA to cancel and let him know the crash is back on and I'll speak to him in 6 months if he still has a job :lol:

Nice One Sparker. I like your way of thinkin' :D:D

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With wintry weather on the horizon over in the US, oil is trading comfortably above $60 as I write and natural gas prices have hit all time highs in sympathy. Inflationary pressures will persist until the global economy switches into reverse by which time the housing market would have retrenched beyond the most vehement of VI spin.

As winter passes, oil (LSC) prices will endure further upside pressure due to the onset of the American holiday season once more and then, the inevitable hurricane season...

To me, Brown's folly will turn out to be his boast of the UK economy being able to withstand the global energy shock, especially as it's barely started IMO. If he's naive enough in the belief that the energy storm has been and gone, then he'll be sorely disappointed as he witnesses his chances of becoming PM, evaporate throughout 2006 as the UK economy succumbs to a lack of demand throughout most industry sectors.

Not that he'd have much time to contemplate as Rome burns, for he is Nero, the master fiddler of all time...

Blair for all his sins, will face renewed condemnation over Iraq, as he makes his excuses for not withdrawing our soldiers from Basra, as will be requested by their Governor after the elections. Failing to do so, will almost certainly lead to an ever greater degree of British casualties, as the locals join forces with Iranian insurgents in order to inflict serious losses upon our troops.

As to what all this translates to in terms of house prices?

Well, I think only an idiot wouuld believe that they're going to rise any further, as the year progresses. A defined change of sentiment is already taking shape, hence, all the bearish ammo of the weeks gone by.

Once the festivities are done and dusted for another year and the foreboding sound of bills thud on the welcome mat. A new reality will have dawned upon the nation, and they'll be no going back on this occasion, except to the 70s that is. A decade of hardship and rebellion for many, but also an era of love and healing for the masses apart from at football matches, where matters were somewhat tribal I seem to recall.

I just hope we don't go back to painting our living rooms lime green or funky banana; and don't forget velvety wallpaper! Coooollllll man!!!!

Well written, sir. Agree entirely.

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whats all this doom and gloom meltdown trigger talk.

blimey - they will probably just quietly settle back to more accepted norms in the coming 12 months.

"though -todays unprecedented solar eclipse is no cause for alarm.........."

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"But Gordon Brown’s U-turn means that the tranche of investors caught by this loophole will have to sell the property before it becomes habitable otherwise they will face punitive tax charges." - The Times today.

This will be the straw that breaks the camels back, the first hand sized snowball at the top of the hill. A significant amount of people who have to sell, even at a big discount before a set deadline in a market that is alrady oversupplied and in decline which underpins the rest of the market. The crash was always going to happen, and the SIPPs changes have helped it, but this one fact, that several thousand people who bought off plan will have to sell, and sell quickly, will prove the trigger.

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sorry no sympathy at all for the troops. the minute you go into someone else's country gun in hand then you are a fair target in my opinion.

Ah I love to see those with a belief in their own moral superiority in fact have less compassion than the majority they feel superior to.

Such disgusting acts as getting involved in the Balkans, stopping the Catholic and Protestant love party in Ireland and removing those German holiday travellers from France are discgraceful examples of the type of people the armed forces attract and sign up.

I think a law should be passed that those in the armed forces should be under control of the ELECTED GOVERNMENT rather than having the daily choice of what country they should rape and pillage to help pass the time. And as for helping provide food and other such essentials to their families as jsutification for having such a disgusting job (what selfish motivation!) I think maybe we shoud send the families out with them, I think it would have certainly have made all those gung ho rambos think twice.

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sorry no sympathy at all for the troops. the minute you go into someone else's country gun in hand then you are a fair target in my opinion.

What, like Saddam did in 1980 into Iran, 1990 into Kuwait, and like it or not, would have done again without international sanctions.

Ah I love to see those with a belief in their own moral superiority in fact have less compassion than the majority they feel superior to.

Agreed.

That chap above should be made to sit and bask in his comments when we have no NHS, public education and return to a third world nation because we dont look after our strategic interests. But oh no, sitting round and huging trees will make it all ok.

Being a world leader comes at a cost. Many of those in Iraq may or may not believe in what they are are doing, but they are all doing it for THIS country, whether you want to acknowledge that or not is up to you, but calling our own troops "fair game" is little less than treason. Still not answered the point about the marsh arabs in Basrah actually wanting us there conveniently. Because believe me, they really do.

Edited by mbga9pgf

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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